Guest of the morning of Europe 1, Ludovic Subran, chief economist of Allianz, returned to the major economic crisis in France. He says that if activity does not resume, state aid will not be sufficient to save companies in sectors in stress. 

INTERVIEW

This is the biggest drop in GDP since 1968 in France. On Friday, INSEE announced a historic plunge in GDP of 13.8% in the second quarter. Household consumption fell by 11%, investments by 17.8%, exports by 25.5%. Terrifying figures which should have for main consequence the multiplication of social plans. "It has already started, at the beginning of the year, we see large companies which will make a reorganization or a judicial liquidation", confirms at the microphone of Europe 1 Ludovic Subran, chief economist of Allianz. 

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"We risk seeing victims of this crisis"

"We therefore expect a very difficult start to the school year with government measures (partial unemployment, loans guaranteed by the State) which will always be there, but which will be used less", fears Ludovic Subran. "In certain sectors, such as construction, distribution, transport, hotels and processing, we risk seeing victims of this crisis," he warns.

However, the government has pulled out all the stops to help businesses, with aid such as partial or long-term unemployment with a major stimulus plan. This will not be enough to avoid social damage? The aids were of an "incredible magnitude", replies Ludovic Subran, "but it does not replace the activity". "If your hotel is no longer functioning, even if the state helps you, unfortunately that will not be enough," he explains.

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"This is why we must complete: the 100 billion of the recovery plan must be very well spent to help rebuild and create new businesses and revive consumption, investment and export", pleads 'economist. But Ludovic Subran warns: "we will have to be patient". According to him, the recovery will be gradual and even if the figures for the third quarter will automatically show a rebound "which could be at 10 or 12%", "we will not return to the pre-crisis level before 2022 in France".

However, this does not mean that France is doing less well than others. “It's pretty much the same in other countries,” said Ludovic Subran, citing the German situation. "So you shouldn't flog yourself either," he concludes.