The unprecedented blow dealt by the coronavirus and economic hibernation has shocked economists and economic agents. Although the 18% drop in GDP between April and June is within forecasts, the aftermath worries: a recovery slowed by the outbreaks; A contagion of paralysis to the financial sector or an uncontrolled growth of unemployment are the biggest risks that the economy will face in the coming months.

"The drop registered is consistent with expectations," explains Raymond Torres, Director of Conjuncture and International Analysis at Funcas . Torres underlines the magnitude of the data. "We have regressed in three months to the level of 2002, we have lost all the accumulated growth in that time," he says.

For the person in charge of economic analysis of the foundation of the savings banks, it is a bad sign that the Spanish economy has been much more damaged than others such as Germany, France, the United States or even Italy at this time and regrets that the recovery, which in June, it manifested symptoms of a certain intensity, it will be weighed down by the outbreaks and the quarantines decreed to combat the virus.

The risks that Spain faces with a drop in GDP of these dimensions are, first of all, a contagion from the crisis of the companies to the financial sector through bankruptcies and insolvencies that undermine the balance sheets of the banks. Second, an uncontrolled conversion of the temporary employment regulation (ERTE) files into layoffs . "There are still more than a million people with suspended employment and if they do not eventually rejoin the job market it will harm consumer confidence and the speed of recovery," he warns. According to Torres' estimates, the Spanish economy could grow 8% in the third quarter, but in the whole of the year a 12% decrease is almost inevitable.

For his part, Marcel Jansen, a tenured professor at the Autonomous University of Madrid and a doctor in Economics from Fedea , believes that "the figure is worse than expected, but the causes are well known: containment measures have been stricter than in other European countries, partly due to our fault, and the weight of the most affected sectors - hospitality, tourism ... - is also greater than in other countries. That said, we must avoid annualizing these figures as some do. Right".

Jansen adds that he is more concerned with the pace of recovery than the size of the drop in the second quarter. "The destruction of employment and industrial fabric has also been higher than in other countries and in the fall it will increase."

The companies grouped into CEOE have underlined the intensity of the crisis and emphasize that in an economic emergency situation such as the current one, it is necessary to maintain and intensify measures to support the productive fabric so as not to jeopardize its survival. It goes without saying that if companies do not recover, it is not possible to normalize economic activity. "

In his analysis of the reactions of the economy to the confinement stage, CEOE points out that unit labor costs and compensation per employee have shown such significant growth (8.7% and 3.9%, respectively). "From this it follows that there may be a decoupling of labor costs in relation to the economic situation. This fact, if it persists in the coming quarters, may pose a risk to the recovery of employment and activity."

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