(Economic Observation) Why did the Political Bureau of the Central Committee set China's economy to fight a "protracted war"?

　　China News Service, Beijing, July 30 (Reporter Wang Enbo) This year is the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan. In addition to formulating the "14th Five-Year Plan", China is also planning a more long-term development goal.

　　The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30. One of the agendas of this meeting was to study the proposals for formulating the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the 2035-Year Vision.

　　Dong Yu, executive vice president of the China Development Planning Institute of Tsinghua University, has participated in the preparation of China’s five-year plan for many times. He said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that this is actually a practice in China’s five-year plan, although not every five The annual plan is the same, but at some important time points, it will not only plan the next five years, but also make an outlook and overall design for a longer stage of development.

　　What is special about the current time node? This meeting believes that the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is the first step for China to build a moderately prosperous society in all respects and achieve the first centenary goal. One five years.

　　Dong Yu analyzed that before that, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China had made clear the new goal of building a modern socialist country in two steps from 2020 to the middle of this century. This means that the "14th Five-Year Plan" is at the starting point of China's new journey of socialist modernization. Therefore, it is necessary not only to make arrangements for the next five years, but also to further refine and look forward to the clear goals of the 19th CPC National Congress. How to realize the first step of the "New Two Steps".

　　This meeting has a long-term perspective. On the one hand, China is currently at an important point in the development process. On the other hand, it also stems from unprecedented challenges and uncertainties. While emphasizing the "steady recovery" and "strong resilience" of China's economy, the meeting also reminded that "many of the problems we encounter are medium and long-term and must be understood from the perspective of protracted warfare."

　　“The challenge facing China’s development today is that short-term issues and long-term structural issues are intertwined.” Dong Yu pointed out that the impact of the epidemic on China’s economy will not pass in the short term. Therefore, it is necessary to think from the bottom line, especially when making plans. Starting from the balance and sustainability of the development of the entire country, in this way can the safety and health of development be ensured, so as to truly move forward step by step.

　　Based on the judgment of the "protracted war", the meeting reiterated that it is necessary to "accelerate the formation of a new development pattern with domestic and international cycles as the main body and mutual promotion of domestic and international cycles."

　　In this regard, Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, said that under the background of the superposition of the exogenous impact of the epidemic and the structural pressure of de-globalization, holding on to the lack or standing still will not help break the trap of the stock game, and the construction of a double cycle is becoming China. An important measure to build competitiveness. As the dual cycle puts people's livelihood and entities first, with the restructuring of the global trade pattern and the reconstruction of the value chain system, endogenous consumption and industrial upgrading are expected to form a closed loop, forming a scarce growth driver.

　　With a long-term view, we must also be down-to-earth and start from this moment. Regarding the current economic work in the second half of the year, the meeting emphasized that "we must adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability" and stated that we must "firmly grasp the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand."

　　Cheng Shi pointed out that after the outbreak of the epidemic, the global economy is facing the extreme situation of a full-scale recession. Considering the risk of the second outbreak of the epidemic, the "gray rhino" risk will continue to inhibit the speed and magnitude of economic recovery. Steady domestic demand has become a scarce global growth driver. China's economy relatively quickly ended its bottoming under the impact of the epidemic, and the two major domestic demand engines of investment and consumption are actively improving, which is expected to become one of the few bright spots in the overall weak global total demand.

　　In addition, as the domestic epidemic is basically under control, the market is quite concerned about whether the relatively loose macro policy will withdraw for some time.

　　The meeting made it clear that fiscal policy should be more proactive and effective. It is necessary to guarantee funds for the construction of major projects and focus on quality and efficiency. Monetary policy should be more flexible, moderate, and precise. It is necessary to maintain a reasonable growth in the money supply and the scale of social financing, and promote a significant reduction in comprehensive financing costs. It is necessary to ensure that the focus of new financing flows to manufacturing, small, medium and micro enterprises.

　　Dong Yu believes that in the first half of the year, a series of proactive policies were introduced in various fields, and the intensity is no longer small. In the second half of the year, the central government will pay more attention to how to promote the actual implementation of existing policies, so that every micro-subject can feel its effects. At the same time, due to the large uncertainty in the economic situation in the second half of the year, macro policies will also reflect flexibility, and grasp the intensity and scale according to changes in the situation.

　　In addition, how to realize the synergy of macro policies will also become a major highlight in the second half of the year. Dong Yu said that in addition to traditional fiscal and monetary policies, some problems that need to be solved in the future can also be achieved through employment policies, regional policies, industrial policies and more. Together, these policies will achieve "one plus one greater than two." (Finish)