China-Singapore Jingwei Client, July 31 (Wang Yongle) Today (31st), the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the operation of China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in July. According to data from 29 analysis institutions surveyed by Reuters, it is predicted The estimated median value is 50.7%, a slight drop from June, but it is still in the expansion range, staying above the line of prosperity for five consecutive months.
The PMI index uses 50% as the threshold for prosperity and decline. When the PMI is higher than 50%, it reflects the overall economic expansion compared with the previous month; if it is below 50%, it reflects the overall economic contraction compared with the previous month.
In June of this year, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.9%, up 0.3 percentage points from May, and was above the line of prosperity for four consecutive months. China's non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.4%, rising for 4 consecutive months, and staying in the expansion range for 4 consecutive months.
The Political Commissar Lu, the chief economist of the Industrial Bank, said that outdoor operations, transportation and production activities may all be disturbed by the effects of high temperature and floods. From the perspective of blast furnace operating rate, the national blast furnace operating rate in July was 70.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of transportation, we selected Foshan and other regions with more developed manufacturing industries to observe the average traffic congestion delay index and found that the average The traffic congestion delay index fell from 0.03 to 1.56 month-on-month, reflecting the month-on-month slowdown in production activities in July. At the same time, the price of building materials, represented by cement and steel, declined in July, which may indicate a slight decline in demand due to extreme weather. On the whole, the manufacturing PMI in July is expected to fall by 0.3 percentage points to 50.6% from June.
The China Merchants macro team report also believes that the flood may have a short-term impact on the domestic economy. The manufacturing PMI in July is expected to be 50.5%, which is still above the critical value.
The macro report of the Bank of Communications macro team shows that high-frequency data shows that production has maintained a recovery. Since July, the national blast furnace operating rate has remained above 70%, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The South China Industrial Products Index rebounded to around 2,250 points, an increase of nearly 100 points from last month. The coal price index rose to 150 points, and energy demand rose during the summer. The Keqiao textile price index dropped slightly, and the light industry production expectations were weak.
The report believes that high-frequency data as a whole reflect that industrial production continues to accelerate, the global epidemic is still developing, and the weakening of external demand has led to a decrease in manufacturing export orders. The manufacturing PMI in July is expected to be 50.7%, slightly lower than last month.
The survey index system of manufacturing purchasing managers includes production, new orders, new export orders, orders in hand, finished product inventory, purchase volume, imports, purchase prices of main raw materials, ex-factory prices, raw materials inventory, employees, supplier delivery time, 13 sub-indexes including production and business activity expectations.
Manufacturing PMI is calculated by weighting 5 diffusion indexes (classification indexes). The five sub-indices and their weights are determined based on their prior influence on the economy. Specifically include: new order index with a weight of 30%; production index with a weight of 25%; employee index with a weight of 20%; supplier delivery time index with a weight of 15%; raw material inventory index with a weight of 15% Is 10%. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is an inverse index, and the reverse calculation is performed when the manufacturing PMI index is synthesized.
Screenshot of the National Bureau of Statistics website
The Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client noticed that although the PMI of China's manufacturing industry increased by 0.3% in June compared with May, the employment index has been below the decline line for two consecutive months, indicating that the employment boom of manufacturing enterprises has slightly declined. In addition, although the indexes of new export orders, imports and backlogs all rebounded from May, they are all below the dry line.
Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician from the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interprets the China Purchasing Managers Index in June and said that although the manufacturing PMI index has rebounded in June and the manufacturing industry has recovered steadily, it must be noted that uncertain factors still exist. First, although the import and export index has improved for two consecutive months, it is still below the threshold. The current overseas epidemic has not been effectively controlled, and there are still variables in the external market. Second, the recovery pressure of some industries is still great, and the PMI of manufacturing industries such as textiles, textiles, apparel, and wood processing continue to be below the critical point. Third, small enterprises have greater difficulties in production and operation. The PMI was 48.9%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, and the proportion of small enterprises reflecting insufficient orders was higher than that of large and medium-sized enterprises.
On July 23, Xin Guobin, the Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, stated at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that comprehensive analysis of relevant indicators showed that the industrial economy has steadily rebounded since the second quarter, and the preliminary judgment of economic operation has returned to the normal track. Looking forward to the second half of the year, favorable conditions and unfavorable factors coexist.
Xin Guobin pointed out that the current international epidemic is still spreading, the world economy is in deep recession, and the international trade environment is deteriorating. It is an indisputable fact; the normalization of the domestic epidemic prevention and control task is still arduous, and there is still a process for demand recovery, and business difficulties are still relatively serious. Various natural disasters such as floods also have some adverse effects on economic recovery. The flood situation is very serious and there are many uncertain factors in the second half of the year.
"But at the same time, we must also see that as the country expands the fiscal deficit and the scale of local government special debts, increases tax cuts and fees, and strengthens financial support for enterprises, the supporting role of infrastructure investment will be further developed. The policy of ensuring employment and promoting consumption will continue to be effective. The new industries, new business models and new models spawned by the epidemic will inject new momentum into economic growth. Therefore, we should also have the confidence and ability to continue to maintain the stable and positive trend of the industrial economy." Xin Guobin Said. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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