The private residential pre-sale ceiling was put into effect from yesterday (29th). It was originally planned to be implemented from the end of April, but the application period has been delayed by about 3 months due to the spread of'Corona 19'. Seoul Gangnam and Seocho, Songpa, Dongdaemun, Nowon, etc., 18 autonomous districts, 309 Dong, Gyeonggi Hanam, Gwangmyeong, and Gwacheon, 13 cities are covered.

In fact, this system of pre-sale limit was not suddenly created at this time. It was first introduced in 1977, and by age it has already exceeded forty. Instead, the target of the pre-sale price limit expanded to private residential land in 2007. One year later, in 2008, the global financial crisis plummeted real estate prices, and the pre-sale ceiling was reduced in 2010. Since then, its coverage has changed several times.

In any case, it is a point to point out that the government has brought in such a limit on the sale price of private housing. In a word, the increase in house prices is not that unusual. In a sense, it can be interpreted as saying, "I can't see the house price rising anymore."

However, as with all things in the world, there is no'absolute good'. Expectations and concerns coexist in this presale price limit. In addition to the opinion that "the house price will have a stabilizing effect" as the government desires, there is also an objection that "the supply will decrease and the house price will rise in the long run" Can the pre-sale virtualization limit contribute to the stability of the house price?

● "Half price is also possible"

The pre-sale price limit is, literally, to set an'up-price' so that you can't raise it above a certain level when you sell an apartment. For example, "If you sell an apartment, you cannot receive more than 10 million won per 3.3 m²." It's blocking it like this. This does not mean that a certain subject can freely set this'upper price'. There are some sophisticated calculation methods, and the presale price is calculated based on <Land Cost + Construction Cost + Basic Profit of Construction Company>. In this case, the apartment will be sold at a lower price than the price of the surrounding apartment, and you can expect to naturally lower the price of the surrounding house.

If so, how much will the actual presale price go down when the presale price limit is enforced? The system has just been implemented, and it is difficult to calculate the exact price because each apartment site has different housing and construction costs. However, you can estimate the approximate scope based on the data released by the Citizens' Federation for Economic Justice. In conclusion, it has been announced that spasticity can be reduced to a maximum of'half'.

Kyungshilyeon investigated the pre-sale prices approved by the Housing and Urban Guarantee Corporation (HUG) of 16 apartments in Gangnam area (Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa) and 8 complexes in Gangnam area. As a result, it was found that the pre-sale price based on the 84m2 dedicated area was 47 million won per 3.3m2 in Gangnam area and 22.5 million in non-Gangnam area. However, if you calculate the pre-sale price by applying the pre-sale ceiling, Gangnam will be reduced by '4,700→21.6 million won' per 3.3㎡, and the average pre-sale price for apartments in the non-Gangnam area will be reduced by half by '2,250 → 1.139 million won' per 3.3㎡.

In fact, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport announced last year that it would apply 20% to 30% cheaper than the current price when it simulates three apartments in Seoul. According to this simulation, in fact, Seoul may come out with a'half price apartment', which is about half of the actual sale price. Currently, the HUG presale price in Gangnam District 3 (Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa-gu) is already about 70% of the market price, but if the presale price is lowered, it is not only unrealistic. However, real estate analysts are suggesting that the pre-sale price drop effect will be around 5~15%.

● "There will be a shortage of supply, and it will rise further."

However, there is not much disagreement that the pre-sale price limit will not contribute to the stability of the house price. In the long run, the pre-sale price limit will lead to a shortage of housing, which will eventually lead to higher house prices. The side of the opinion asserted that "even if the sale price is lowered, the market price of the surrounding apartments is not lowered, but rather, contractors with reduced profits will reduce their housing supply and eventually increase the house price." It means that this vicious structure will continue, such as: ``Pre-sale price → decrease in construction company profits → decrease in housing supply → increase in house price''.

If the'upper price limit' is set, will supply really decrease? In fact, even in economics,'the study of how demand and supply changes when price limits are set has been around for a long time. That's why I looked for that part in textbooks ('Mankyu's Economics'), which is widely used as a companion in college economics. In the textbook, the price of ice cream is given as an example, but it seems irrelevant to replace it with an apartment.

Looking at the graph, if you get a'price upper limit' of $2, marked with a red line , what you sold for $3 in the existing market would drop to $2 (1). When the actual price decreases, supply also decreases from point A to point B (2). At least in economic terms, suppliers are reducing profits at lower prices, reducing actual supply.

If this supply shortage continues, there will be more demand than supply, and the market price can rise to a higher price than originally. From the perspective of the apartment market, there will be a small number of so-called'lottery winners' in the short term, but in the long run, it may be difficult to achieve the goal of stabilizing the house price due to the shortage of supply.

● "Theory and reality are different"

Of course, the theory and reality in textbooks may be different. Indeed, according to a paper published by Professor Seong-Ho Lee of the Department of Urban Engineering, Pusan ​​National University ('Comparison Analysis of Apartment Sales Price according to whether or not to apply the pre-sale price limit'), 59 (39%) of the 148 experts in the real estate, finance, and architecture survey answered " "The supply volume will be affected by the flexible environment of the housing market rather than the pre-sale limit itself ."

In other words, the shortage of supply due to the pre-sale limit should also take into account various external variables such as interest rates and liquidity, Corona 19, and government policies. Even 23 experts (15.5%) have recognized that the pre-sale price limit will have no effect on housing supply. On the other hand, 52 experts (35.1%) and 14 people (9.5%) were expecting that housing supply would decrease slightly or significantly due to the implementation of the pre-sale price limit.

In conclusion, more than half of the respondents disagreed with the formula'pre-sale price limit→supply reduction'. In other words, it could be interpreted as "the opinion that'the implementation of the pre-sale price limit has little effect on the supply of housing' has prevailed." Professor Lee, who conducted the actual research, also summarized the research results in the paper, saying, "It is contrary to the construction industry's claim that the housing profitability will decrease due to the business profitability deterioration due to the implementation of the pre-sale price limit ."

● "Real estate matters are confident"

The real fact that this debate and disagreement is that the current real estate market demand is ahead of supply. Also, it cannot be denied that real estate prices are subject to the demand-supply principle. Therefore, in order for the government's policy intention of'I will stabilize the house price' to be fulfilled, sufficient supply should be basically provided. If, at some point, the market judges that the'supply price limit is reduced due to the implementation of the pre-sale limit,' the price may be higher than the present, as shown in the graph. This is why the government should do its best to prepare supply measures.

At the same time, it would be necessary to supplement the first pre-sale who received the pre-sale discount limit to prevent excessive excessive profits or to recover some. Otherwise, it can cause such side effects as running like a racehorse while looking at the so-called lottery subscription.

To put it bluntly, it is easy to point out, but it is very difficult to apply the alternative to the real world. It is certainly not an easy task to solve a complex high-order equation that includes many economic variables and human psychology. Perhaps so, wasn't the public highly excited about President Moon Jae-in's statement , " I'm confident in the real estate problem ?" Now the people are waiting for results, not words.