The European Central Bank (ECB) has extended to January 2021 the recommendation to banks not to distribute dividends or repurchase shares to remunerate their shareholders, initially set until October 1; at the same time that he has asked them to be "extremely moderate" with regard to variable compensation for staff and managers.

Its request, which continues to be "temporary and exceptional", is made in view of the evolution of the pandemic and its impact on the economy to preserve the ability of banks to absorb losses and to support the economy by granting financing.

"This uncertainty -economic- makes it difficult for banks to accurately forecast their capital positions, as shown by the vulnerability analysis, where the level of capital in the system could decrease significantly if a severe scenario materialized," the agency has warned.

The ECB has unveiled precisely on Tuesday a study of the impact of the crisis on the solvency of banks and, although it concludes that the banking sector in the euro area "is resistant to the stress caused by coronaviruses", its exercise proves that it could suffer a strong impact on capital.

His study takes as a basis the two macroeconomic scenarios considered by the ECB analysts: the central and most probable, where the economy of the euro zone would contract 8.7% this year, to rebound 5.2 and 3.3% in the biennium 2021 and 2022; and one aggravated by the pandemic where the GDP would fall 12.6% this year, to grow later by 3.3 and 3.8% in the following two years.

In the central scenario, the ECB estimates that the most demanding aggregate capital of banks, CET1, would be diluted by 1.9%, up to 12.6%; while in the severe scenario it would decrease by 5.7 percentage points, to 8.8% at the end of 2022. "The results show that the banking sector in the euro area can withstand the stress induced by a pandemic, but if the situation worsens, the exhaustion of bank capital would be material, "he warns.

It is under these hypotheses and with the idea of ​​banks being able to help their clients, companies and individuals, in addition to the economy, to overcome the crisis under which it prescribes that they do not pay dividends until next January. A decision that, he anticipates, will be further reviewed at the end of the year to see if he should reconsider.

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