Global air traffic will not return to its pre-crisis level before 2024, due in particular to uncertainties about the openings of borders which weigh on international travel, the International Air Transport Association (Iata) said on Tuesday.
“We now estimate that the 2019 (traffic) level will not be reached until 2024, which is a year later than we had previously anticipated,” said Brian Pearce, Iata's chief financial officer, during 'a press conference.
An upsurge of Covid which slows down the reopening of borders
He cited a slower-than-expected recovery in traffic in May and June and the uncertainties that remain over the lifting of border restrictions. The second semester "will see a recovery (of traffic) slower than what we had hoped for, we have already seen it in May and June", he added, noting that the resurgence of Covid-19 in a a number of countries held back the reopening of borders.
The organization now estimates that the fall in traffic in 2020 will be 63% against 55% previously. “The projections depend a lot on how countries control the virus,” he noted, believing that the arrival of a vaccine against Covid-19 could improve the situation for airlines.
419 billion shortfall for air travel, in 2020 alone
In addition, "the United Kingdom has stopped its links with Spain and this has created uncertainty", he continued, finally noting the absence of massive reopening of long-haul links, "in particular for transatlantic travel ”.
The organization, which brings together 290 airlines, estimates the shortfall in 2020 for the sector at 419 billion, due to the coronavirus crisis. That is a halving of global revenues from the commercial aviation sector.
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