The economic recovery that began with deconfinement seems to be accelerating in France, with activity showing signs of dynamism in all sectors, but the end of the year remains uncertain and the government, cautious, refuses at this stage to revise its forecast. recession for 2020.
The good signals follow each other and look the same in recent days: private sector activity has thus clearly recovered in July, in particular in services which have been hard hit by the crisis, according to a very closely monitored provisional indicator, published on Friday. by the IHS Markit firm.
France, "the strongest resumption of activity in Europe"
"Domestic demand is finally starting to pick up, with a growing number of companies resuming operations, while consumer spending is starting to return to more usual levels," said Eliot Kerr, economist at IHS Markit, quoted in a statement.
On Thursday, the business climate indicator published by INSEE already showed renewed confidence in July among business leaders, who deem the business outlook good in most sectors.
Cocorico: France would even know "the strongest resumption of activity in Europe", according to a barometer published on Friday by the consulting firm BCG. However, after having experienced one of the heaviest falls.
According to this barometer, consumption is picking up very strongly in France, faster than in Germany or the United Kingdom, as is the activity of the automotive sector. "For several weeks we have recorded positive indicators which reflect the effectiveness of our measures", welcomed the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire Thursday in front of the deputies, an allusion to the 460 billion euros of public resources mobilized since mid-March.
The Banque de France also expects a rebound of 14% of GDP in the third quarter, and INSEE, more optimistic, expects an increase of 19%, after a fall of 17% in the second quarter.
But "too fragile" results
But Bruno Le Maire considered these results "too fragile for us to revise our growth forecasts for the moment". The government is still forecasting an 11% contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) this year, when INSEE expects a drop of 9% and the Banque de France of 10.3%.
"We will continue to fight to (...) do better" than these -11%, however assured the minister. The recovery plan of 100 billion euros, part of the measures will be applied from the start, including those on youth employment, should contribute, before full effect next year.
Because the start of the school year promises to be full of dangers for the French economy. Unemployment could increase sharply with a complicated entry of young graduates into the labor market. The risks of bankruptcy and social plans could also increase with the end of a certain number of emergency aid measures.
"The return to normal is far from being acquired"
"The return to normal is far from being acquired", judges Julien Manceaux, economist at ING. “In the service sector, confidence is just above its lowest level in the 2009 crisis. This observation alone shows how the rebound in deconfinement is relative,” he explains in a note.
In business too, we look shabby. The start of the sales is "not very dynamic", according to the Procos federation, which brings together players in specialized trade. And since January 1, the sales of its members have fallen by nearly 30% compared to last year.
"The situation remains very complicated for a number of stores, the start of the school year and the end of the year will be decisive", warns Procos, recalling that "the trade is a sector with very strong stake on the front of the social risk and the territorial impact ". An allusion to the difficulties of many brands (Camaïeu, André, Naf Naf…) which augur store closures and job cuts.
In terms of employment precisely, “if there is a considerable improvement for interim or temporary contracts, (…) hiring intentions other than temporary work are hardly higher than at the bottom of the 2009 crisis. ", Also notes Julien Manceaux, illustrating according to him" the doubts (...) as to the level of activity which will characterize this new post-covid normality ".
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