On July 23, Xin Guobin, deputy minister of the Ministry of Electricity and Information Technology, said on the 23rd that my country’s industrial economic indicators in the first half of the year fell first and then rose, and the operating conditions in the second quarter improved month by month. On the whole, the fundamentals of China’s industrial economy are good at present, and the impact of the epidemic on China’s industrial economy is generally controllable. This basic trend of long-term improvement will not be affected by the impact of the epidemic and the impact of the international economic downturn. Has changed.
On the 23rd, the State Information Office held a press conference to invite Xin Guobin to introduce the development of the industrial communications industry in the first half of 2020. A reporter asked, how do you view the current industrial economic situation and whether the rebound in the next six months can continue? Xin Guobin made the above statement.
Xin Guobin introduced four positive changes in the course of economic operation.
First, various indicators of industrial economic operation have come out of the bottom. Affected by the epidemic, the value added of industries above designated size in the first two months fell sharply by 13.5% year-on-year, a huge drop. In accordance with the overall arrangements and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has taken active actions and started the resumption of work and production for the entire industry chain in early February. In accordance with the principle of "big and small, top-bottom linkage, and domestic and foreign trade coordination", efforts are being made to break through the breakpoints of the domestic industrial chain, and industrial production order is gradually restored. By March, the year-on-year decline in industrial added value narrowed to 1.1%. As the situation of epidemic prevention and control continues to improve and the resumption of work and production is progressing steadily, the implementation of various policies and measures has been effective since the second quarter, and the industrial economy has shown sustained and recovery growth. In April, May, and June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.9%, 4.4% and 4.8% year-on-year respectively. What needs to be emphasized is that not only does it depend on the growth, but the key also depends on the production and sales rate. In the past few months, the production and sales rate has been maintained relatively well, at around 98%. Market sales have clearly picked up, and business expectations are also improving. The purchasing managers' index (PMI) of the manufacturing industry in June was 50.9%, which has been above the prosperity and decline line for 4 consecutive months. This is a very important indicator, which reflects that companies have confidence in the expected state of the economy. It is also a very important signal globally. Based on the analysis of relevant indicators, the industrial economy has steadily recovered since the second quarter, and the preliminary judgment of economic operation has returned to the normal track.
Second, major industries and key provinces are all improving simultaneously. From an industry perspective, among the 41 industrial categories, more than half of the industries achieved positive growth in the second quarter. Among them, the equipment manufacturing industry's added value growth rate in May and June reached 9.5% and 9.7% respectively. Automobile production and sales in June increased by 22.5% and 11.6% year-on-year respectively. This kind of performance is very eye-catching in history. The raw material industry, driven by the recovery of infrastructure investment, has shown a stable overall trend. It is particularly noteworthy that the light industry, textile and other consumer goods industries that have been greatly affected by the epidemic have steadily progressed with the resumption of business and the market, and production and sales have also shown signs of recovery. . These two industries have been most affected by the epidemic and have the strongest social experience. After these labor-intensive industries are affected, employment will be greatly affected. Judging from the situation in the past few months, the consumer goods industries such as light industry and textile have shown signs of recovery. Although the growth is still negative, the signs of recovery are already very obvious. From a regional perspective, major industrial provinces have played the role of "ballast stone" for steady growth. Among the 31 provinces, 18 provinces achieved positive growth in value added in the first half of the year. For example, the cumulative industrial growth rate of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan and other provinces all realized a decline from a decline to an increase. Among the major industrial provinces, the 10 major industrial provinces, with the exception of several major provinces such as Guangdong, are currently experiencing negative growth, and most of them have returned to positive growth. The industrial added value of Shandong Province is close to the same period last year.
The third is the growth of emerging industries against the trend. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, centering on the main line of supply-side structural reform, vigorously supports enterprises to actively seek new responses and turn crises into opportunities under the impact of the epidemic, and new industries and business conditions have grown against the trend. In the first half of the year, the added value of the high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 4.5%, and achieved a rapid rebound after a sharp drop of 14.4% in the first two months. Since March, the monthly growth rate has remained between 8.9% and 10.5%. The contribution rate has increased significantly. The added value of industries such as biomedicine, electronics and communication equipment, and medical instruments and equipment increased by 13.8%, 7.2%, and 27.2% year-on-year respectively. In June, the output of 3D printing equipment, smart watches, charging piles and other products increased by more than 40%. While the epidemic has caused a major impact on some industries, it has also accelerated the development of industries such as digital economy, smart manufacturing, and life and health. Online office, telemedicine, and online education are all expanding rapidly. At the same time, the construction of new infrastructure such as 5G is accelerating the digital transformation and intelligent development of the industry, and the integration of information technology and manufacturing is accelerating.
Fourth, the policy of stabilizing enterprises and benefiting enterprises is making efforts to increase efficiency. Facing the severe impact of the epidemic, the relevant departments of the State Council have decisively introduced more than 90 policy measures to help companies rescue their difficulties and stimulate market vitality. Including the timely introduction of phased and targeted tax and fee reduction policies to reduce corporate electricity and gas costs, tax and fee reductions have totaled more than 1 trillion yuan this year. In terms of financial policies, we implemented inclusive and targeted RRR cuts three times, and comprehensively used rediscount and refinancing measures to innovate monetary policy tools that directly reach the real economy. In the first five months, the balance of mid- and long-term manufacturing loans increased by 19.6% year-on-year. With the implementation of various policies, the profit margin of operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 5% in the first five months, an increase of 1.06 percentage points from the first quarter, and the rate of profit decline narrowed to 19.3%, followed by an increase of 6% in May. What is particularly gratifying is that the operating conditions of SMEs have also improved simultaneously. When the first quarterly press conference was held, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology had always been very worried about the situation of SMEs, but now, the relevant policies have indeed played a very important role in helping SMEs to recover, and they have clearly seen results.
Xin Guobin said that looking forward to the second half of the year, favorable conditions and unfavorable factors coexist. The current international epidemic is still spreading, the world economy is in a deep recession, and the international trade environment is deteriorating. It is an indisputable fact. The task of preventing and controlling the domestic epidemic is still arduous, and there is still a process for demand recovery. Business difficulties are still serious, floods, and other issues. Such natural disasters also have some adverse effects on economic recovery. The flood situation is very serious, and there are still many uncertain factors in the second half of the year.
But at the same time, we must also see that as the country expands the fiscal deficit and the scale of local government special debts, increases tax cuts and fees, and strengthens financial support for enterprises, the supporting role of infrastructure investment will be further strengthened. , The policy of ensuring employment and promoting consumption will continue to be effective, and the new industries, new formats and new models spawned by the epidemic will inject new momentum into economic growth.