Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, July 24th (Xiong Siyi) Today (24th) at 24:00, a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will open. Many institutions predict that the current round of refined oil price adjustments will likely be stranded.
Photo by Sino-Singapore Jingwei Gas Station
On the news, according to Reuters' Chinese website, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on the 22nd that US crude oil and distillate stocks unexpectedly increased last week, and because of the surge in new crown infection cases that hit fuel consumption, US fuel demand has declined.
However, the leaders of the 27 member states of the European Union reached an agreement on a fiscal stimulus plan to combat the impact of the new crown epidemic and revive the European economy in the early morning of the 21st, and agreed to invest 750 billion euros in assistance to the affected member states. At the same time, a number of companies have reported positive data from early vaccine trials. The agency believes that the above news provides confidence in the crude oil market.
At the beginning of this round of pricing cycle, the crude oil market also showed a state of interweaving long and short factors. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) issued a statement on July 15 stating that OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries agreed to reduce production to 7.7 million barrels per day starting from August. However, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Abdul Aziz bin Salman also stated that because countries that have not completed the previous three months of production reduction quotas will compensate, the actual oil production reduction in August will exceed 7.7 million per day. barrel.
Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Wang Xueqin analyzed on the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that during this pricing cycle, there is no clear directional guidance on the crude oil market news, so the crude oil price shows a trend of high volatility.
Market data shows that as of the early morning close on the 23rd, Beijing time, the price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by US$0.02 to close at US$41.90 per barrel, a decrease of 0.05%. The price of London Brent crude oil futures for September delivery fell 0.03 US dollars to close at 44.29 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.07%.
According to the principle of "one adjustment every ten working days", a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on July 24. According to Jinlianchuang's calculations, as of the ninth working day on July 23, the average price of reference crude oil was US$43.21/barrel, and the rate of change was 1.42%. The corresponding gasoline and diesel oil should be increased by RMB 40/ton. The subscription number of Jinlianchuang issued a document on the 22nd that the recent international oil prices may maintain a volatile upward trend, and the current round of refined oil retail prices are expected to rise in a row.
However, analyst Wang Xueqin said on the 23rd that the rate of change of crude oil in this pricing cycle has always been at a positive low level, and the corresponding increase in the retail price limit of refined oil has never exceeded 50 yuan/ton. Therefore, domestic finished products at 24:00 on July 24 There is a high probability that the retail price of oil will be stranded.
Li Yan, an oil analyst at Longzhong Information, also told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client on the 23rd that according to estimates, as of July 22, the comprehensive rate of change in crude oil was 1.60%, corresponding to an increase of 40 yuan/ton. It is currently the ninth working day of the price adjustment cycle, and it is difficult for the price adjustment range to exceed 50 yuan/ton. This round of stranding is a high probability event.
In addition, Zhongyu Information stated on the 23rd that as of the 9th working day of this round of product oil pricing period, the estimated crude oil change rate was 2.38%, and the estimated price was 42.745 US dollars/barrel, corresponding to an increase of 39 yuan/ton. It is temporarily expected to be on July 24. There is no adjustment to the zero price limit of refined oil at 24 o'clock.
According to statistics from Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, since this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 13 adjustments, including 8 strandings, 3 downward adjustments, and 2 upward adjustments. Gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by RMB 1,630/ton and RMB 1,570/ton respectively. . Among them, the six rounds of adjustments from March 31 to June 11 were all stranded because the crude oil price in the international market was below $40 per barrel. If the current round of refined oil price adjustments are stranded, the domestic refined oil price adjustments in 2020 will show a pattern of "two ups, three downs and nine strands".
The next round of price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on August 7, 2020. Li Yan believes that the recent negative factors in the international crude oil market have begun to strengthen, and it is expected that the probability of the next round of refined oil price adjustments will be higher. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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