What does China's economy rely on to break through in the world
Zou Yunhan
Recently, the main indicators of my country's economic operation in the second quarter have been announced. With GDP falling by 6.8% in the first quarter and significant contraction on both sides of supply and demand, my country's economy improved significantly in the second quarter, with economic growth returning from negative to positive to 3.2%, the world's first economic recovery.
From the perspective of the supply side, as the epidemic prevention and control has entered the normalization stage, the shortage of labor and epidemic prevention materials that restricted production and recovery in the early stage has been basically alleviated, industrial production has shown a rapid improvement trend, residents' life, business services and other fields have become more active, and business has resumed. The market resumption continued to advance. From the demand side, the "troika" of investment, consumption and export all showed a clear upward trend. Investment rebounded to lead the way, household consumption was moderately covered, and export growth was significantly better than expected. These positive changes reflect the solid and effective previous work and have also become an important basis for studying and judging the subsequent economic development. Positive "chemical reactions" continue to occur at both ends of supply and demand, and the macroeconomic cycle will have continuous momentum for improvement, and the road to economic recovery will become smoother.
This is an emboldened change from negative to positive, and it is also a good reverse trend with shining colors, highlighting the resilience and vitality of China's economy. China's ability to break through the global war epidemic firstly benefits from scientific understanding of the law of infectious disease prevention and control, a clear understanding of the development of the epidemic, comprehensive research and judgment from the central to the local level, and precise implementation of policies, so that we can be in a threatening epidemic. Timely planning and all-people operations will lay a solid foundation for economic recovery. "The macro policy focuses on counter-cyclical adjustment, and the rhythm and intensity must be able to hedge the impact of the epidemic." While doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control, various localities and departments have introduced a series of counter-cyclical adjustment measures to hedge the adverse effects. The proactive fiscal policy has become more proactive, and measures such as expanding the scale of special debt, appropriately increasing the deficit rate, and issuing special anti-epidemic treasury bonds, will support the rebound of the economy from bottoming out; prudent monetary policy will be more flexible and appropriate, and the reduction in support for agriculture and small loans will be reduced Interest rates and other measures have created a sound monetary and financial environment for economic recovery and provided strong financial support for the survival of enterprises; all-round support policies such as various industries and social relief work together to ensure industrial development and the stability of people's livelihood.
It is gratifying to turn from negative to positive, but there are still many difficulties and challenges in the future. Looking forward to the second half of the year, as some countries restart their economies with the epidemic, the epidemic situation is getting worse again, and there is greater uncertainty about whether there will be a second outbreak in autumn and winter. As far as the global economy is concerned, it is currently in the worst recession since World War II. As long as the epidemic cannot be effectively controlled, the deep recession will continue. The problem of blocked supply chain circulation in the industrial chain will still exist, and international trade and investment will shrink significantly. It is difficult to reverse the situation in a short time. This is exactly the change in the external environment that we must face directly. From a domestic perspective, employment pressure is still not small. Some enterprises, especially private enterprises, small, medium and micro enterprises, are facing difficulties. Risks in finance and other fields have accumulated. The conflict between grassroots fiscal revenue and expenditure has intensified. huge pressure. Hard work is needed to push the economy back to normal levels.
The more we go against the current, the more we must strengthen and strengthen our confidence. From the perspective of favorable factors, China has a huge market of 1.4 billion people and 400 million middle-income groups. When there are many uncertainties in external demand, we are even more urged to accelerate the construction of a complete domestic demand system and form a new pattern of domestic and international dual-cycle promotion. , Give full play to the characteristics of the depth of the domestic market and large room for maneuver, and release the huge potential of promoting China's economic transformation and upgrading through the consumer market. At the same time, new technologies such as big data, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things, as well as new formats such as online office, online education, and e-commerce, have all been further popularized and developed during the epidemic, and these will become new drivers of my country's economic development.
From digital governance to the digital transformation of traditional enterprises, from virtual industrial parks to shared production and data element circulation... Recently, 13 departments including the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued hard measures to support the healthy development of 15 new business formats and models, and launched a new engine for the digital economy. Press the digital economy "fast forward button". The market is stable and inherently resilient, and the momentum of kinetic energy conversion is good. China's economy is cultivating new opportunities amidst the crisis and opening up a new game amidst changes.
(The author is an associate researcher of the Macroeconomic Research Office of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center)