Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, July 22. On Wednesday, A-shares opened lower collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower by 0.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index opened lower by 0.21%, and the ChiNext Index opened lower by 0.4%. On the disk, the military industry, insurance, and liquor performed sluggishly, and gold stocks soared.

　　In terms of individual stocks, 1,312 individual stocks rose, among which 40 stocks such as Hengbang, Yituo, and Changhai have increased by more than 5%. In 2016, individual stocks fell, of which 18 stocks including Shenzhen Nandian A, Quanzhu, and Xinhualian fell by more than 5%.

　　Source: Wind

　　In the Asia-Pacific stock market, the Nikkei 225 index fell 0.4% to 22791.75 points at the opening on the 22nd, and the Korea Composite Index fell 0.12% to 2226.12 points. As of press time, the Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.26%, and the Korea Composite Index rose 0.07%.

　　As for Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index opened 0.24% lower on the 22nd to 25,575.25 points. Technology stocks recovered, Tencent fell 2%, Meituan fell 4.6%, heavyweight technology stocks such as JD.com, Alibaba, and Xiaomi Group all fell; energy and precious metal stocks strengthened, three barrels of oil rose across the board, PetroChina rose 4.5%, Zhaojin Mining rose more than 5%, Shandong Gold rose nearly 5%, and China Silver Group surged 14.3%.

New Shanghai Composite Index unveiled

　　On July 22, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index preparation plan was officially implemented, mainly removing ST and *ST stocks; including red chip CDR and science and technology innovation board targets; extending the listing time requirement for new stocks included in the index, aiming to reduce the distortion of the stock index and reflect the truth Changes in the industrial structure of the Shanghai stock market.

　　In addition, after the market closes on the 22nd, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Co., Ltd. will release the historical quotations of the 50 component indexes on the SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board, and the real-time quotations will be officially released on July 23. It is reported that the SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 Component Index is composed of 50 securities with large market capitalization and good liquidity on the SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board, reflecting the overall performance of a group of science and technology enterprises that are the most representative of the market.

　　Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan, believes that the long-term rise and fall of the Shanghai Composite Index after the revised compilation plan depends on how many growth companies will be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in the future. The inclusion of the Science and Technology Innovation Board in the Shanghai Composite Index this time will help promote the long-term upward trend of the index. In the future, the Shanghai Stock Exchange will have to absorb more new-economy leaders to go public before it can really stimulate the index to rise. In other words, the decisive factor for the rise and fall of the index depends on the quality and growth of listed companies.

　　Yingda Securities chief economist Li Daxiao posted on Weibo on the 21st, saying that "the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index will be reborn from the beginning of tomorrow, and the Chinese stock market will start slowly since then." He believes that the revision of the Shanghai Stock Index has initially solved the deviation caused by the speculation of the new speculation. The Chinese stock market is expected to get rid of the distortion, and the slow start of the bull will truly become possible.

Lifting the ban = reducing holdings = the market plummeted?

　　For the first anniversary of the launch of the Sci-tech Innovation Board, the first batch of IPO shares, institutional placements and strategic placements of shares that were partly locked for a one-year period will soon be lifted. According to Wind data, this week (July 20-July 24), a total of 70 companies have lifted their bans on restricted shares one after another, with a total of 8.422 billion shares lifted. The pressure on the first batch of sci-tech innovation boards to lift the ban was mainly concentrated on July 22.

　　Lifting the ban = reducing holdings = the market plummeted? CITIC Securities believes that the stock market is a complex capital game, which is never influenced by a single factor, and the ban on stocks is lifted, but it is not that you can reduce holdings if you want to reduce holdings.

　　According to the analysis of CITIC Securities, since May 2017, the Securities Regulatory Commission has successively issued a number of reduction regulations, which have imposed strict restrictions on the reduction of various types of shareholders, including original shareholders, including the method of reduction and the number of reductions. Wait. Taking the reduction rules of the Science and Technology Innovation Board as an example, shareholders holding specific shares, regardless of their shareholding ratio, shall not exceed 1% of the total share capital through auction trading within 90 consecutive days. The restricted shares that have been lifted from the transaction reduction shall not exceed 2% of the total share capital. That is, the total of 90 consecutive trading days cannot exceed 3%.

　　Guosheng Securities also said that for the market, historical experience has shown that 2009 and 2015 are great years for the lifting of the ban for listed companies, but the stock market is very good. That year, the large-scale lifting of the ban on the first batch of GEM listed companies did not have a significant impact on the market. The historical situation in the past two years is that the massive lifting of the ban has increased the market volatility in the next two trading days, but whether it is for the lifting of the ban on individual stocks or The impact on the overall sector is actually relatively limited.

　　Guosheng Securities Zhang Qiyao believes that the lifting of the sci-tech innovation board will bring greater opportunities. On the one hand, the lifting of the ban may have a short-term impact on the market, but the impact is relatively limited. On the contrary, it may be a "golden pit", extending the window for a long time. On the other hand, with the lifting of the ban and the expansion of circulating chips, it will provide an opportunity for institutions to increase the number of science and technology boards. In the future, with the release of the Sci-tech Innovation Board index, the issuance of the Sci-tech Innovation Board fund, and the increase in the allocation of existing funds, the Sci-Tech Innovation Board is expected to usher in a huge directional increase in funds. Therefore, if the lifting of the ban brings about a "golden pit", it is likely to become the starting point for the "technological innovation bull" in the third quarter.

What's the future of A shares?

　　Can the revised Shanghai Index continue to rise? The metalworking team of Everbright Securities believes that the average point of the Shanghai Composite Index in the first two quarters of this year is 2,906 points, which is lower than the average for the whole year of 2019 (2,920 points). Under the dual background of the increasingly perfect index preparation plan and the expected profitability of A-shares, the upward space of the Shanghai Composite Index is worth looking forward to.

　　According to Li Zhan, chief economist of Zhongshan Securities, the Shanghai stock index has a high probability of 2700 to 3800 points in the next 6 months. He said that in an environment where GDP growth is slightly higher than expected and investment is better than expected, the sharp drop in A shares is a technical resonance adjustment triggered by the profit settlement. The Shanghai Index is still at the beginning of a new round of chaotic cycle, and there is a high probability in the short term. Adjusted with shocks and short-term, but the overall long-term worry-free.

　　Looking forward to the market outlook, Northeast Securities said that after experiencing the sharp rise and fall of A shares in the past few days, investor sentiment has gradually stabilized. The trading volume of the two markets is at the trillion level but has not continued to create high volume. The market is more likely to turn. Instead of continuing to make progress, 3350-3450 points constitute the upper range, and 3100-3200 points constitute the lower range. Generally speaking, there is a high probability that the closing price in July will be below 3450 points. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)