On Tuesday, July 21, trading on the global energy market was accompanied by a steady rise in world oil prices. In the middle of the day, quotes for crude oil of the benchmark Brent and the American WTI rose more than 3.5% to $ 44.8 and $ 42.5 per barrel, respectively. Values are the highest since March 6.
According to experts interviewed by RT, investors reacted positively to the news about testing a drug for coronavirus. So, on the eve of the British magazine The Lancet reported on the successful completion of the first phase of vaccine trials developed by Oxford University and AstraZeneca. At the same time, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the readiness of the Russian vaccine against COVID-19.
“Investors see this news as another successful step in the global fight against coronavirus. Vaccination should lead to the removal of the last restrictions and the full opening of borders. Such a scenario may cause an increased demand for fuel, so players are now trying to buy oil at a better price, ”Valery Emelyanov, an analyst at Freedom Finance, explained in a conversation with RT.
In mid-July, the International Energy Agency (IEA) improved its forecast for oil demand in 2020 for the third time in a row. According to the organization's report, by the end of the year, the consumption of energy resources in the world may be reduced by 7.9 million barrels per day - to 92.1 million barrels per day. Earlier, IEA experts expected a decrease in the figure by 8.1 million.
“The world energy market has passed the most difficult stage of the crisis caused by the pandemic. In addition, new agreements of OPEC + members play in favor of the growth of oil prices. The parties decided to increase oil production by 2 million barrels per day, but at the same time retained restrictions. If the deal is observed in good faith by the end of the year, oil may rise to $ 50-55 per barrel, ”Ivan Kapustyansky, a leading analyst at Forex Optimum, told RT.
In addition, market participants are positive about the measures of the European authorities to restore the region's economy. Ilya Zaporozhsky, an expert at the Academy of Finance and Investment Management, expressed this point of view in an interview with RT. After protracted negotiations on the fifth day of discussion, the heads of state of the European Union reached an agreement on a total budget for 2021-2027 in the amount of € 1.074 trillion and an anti-crisis plan of € 750 billion.
"The new aid package will allow more active restoration of industry in the region, which will result in an increase in fuel consumption in the EU countries," Zaporozhsky explained.
Note that the sharp rise in oil prices had a positive impact on the dynamics of the Russian currency. Thus, at the auctions on Tuesday, the dollar rate on the Moscow Exchange fell by 0.9% - to 70.7 rubles, and the euro rate - by 1%, to 80.85 rubles.
The official exchange rate of the Central Bank on July 22 was set at 70.97 rubles per dollar and 81.25 rubles per euro.
“Now one of the key drivers of growth of the national currency rate is oil quotes. In June, the average price of Russian Urals crude oil rose by more than a third compared to May and came close to the base cost of raw materials set in the Russian budget. This state of affairs provides significant support to the ruble, "said Ivan Kapustyansky.
In general, analysts interviewed by RT do not expect significant fluctuations in the Russian foreign exchange market in the near future. According to the economist of BCS Premier Anton Pokatovich, in addition to oil, the relative stability of the national currency is ensured by key macroeconomic indicators. First of all, we are talking about a low level of inflation and public debt, as well as about a significant amount of gold and foreign exchange reserves.
As Pokatovich noted in a conversation with RT, the tax period that has begun is also playing in favor of the ruble. At this time, exporting companies traditionally sell foreign currency and buy rubles to pay taxes.
“At the same time, the situation around the coronavirus will exert some pressure on the ruble until the end of summer. Investors fear a second wave of the pandemic and a slower global economic recovery. This may force players to actively sell risky assets, including the ruble, ”Pokatovich said.
According to the expert, until the end of summer the dollar exchange rate will remain in the range of 71-74 rubles. At the same time, according to Valery Yemelyanov, the gradual return of oil prices to the level of $ 50 per barrel may lead to a decrease in the dollar exchange rate to 67 rubles by the end of the year.