The Sino-Singapore Jingwei client, July 20 (Xinhua) The July loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) was not adjusted. So far, LPR has been "unmoved" for three consecutive months.
Unadjusted for three consecutive months
On the 20th, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Interbank Lending Center to quote the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR), showing that the one-year LPR was 3.85%; the LPR over the five-year period was 4.65%, which remained unchanged from the June quotation.
Screenshot of the central bank website
Last week (July 13-July 19), the central bank carried out four reverse repurchase operations, accumulating a total of 330 billion reverse repurchase operations. In addition, on July 15, the central bank launched a 400 billion yuan medium-term loan facility (MLF) operation with a one-year term and a bid interest rate of 2.95%. The central bank said that the MLF operation is a continuation of two MLF expirations and one targeted medium-term loan facility (TMLF) expiration this month, of which TMLF renewal can continue to roll, with a total period of 3 years.
It is worth mentioning that the interest rate of the central bank's MLF operation is the same as that of June, which is also the MLF winning interest rate that has remained unchanged for three consecutive months.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that the macroeconomic recovery process has been faster in recent periods, providing the central bank with an opportunity to moderately adjust the pace of monetary policy, including the MLF interest rate has remained unchanged for 3 consecutive months, and the market capital interest rate center has moved up. To near the policy interest rate, etc., this can also reserve more policy space for dealing with various uncertainties in the second half of the year.
Since the LPR quotation is linked to the MLF interest rate, the market also includes a pre-judgment of the LPR quotation while paying attention to the central bank's MLF operating rate. Recently, both open market operations (OMO) and MLF operating rates are "untouched." Therefore, the market has generally believed that the high probability of LPR in July will remain unchanged.
How about LPR in the second half of the year?
New latitude and longitude in the data map
Wang Qing predicts that in order to implement the 1.5 trillion yuan profit target for the financial system throughout the year, the downward rate of LPR quotations will accelerate in the second half of the year, which means that the general corporate loan interest rate will drop more significantly during the same period.
Soochow Securities Research also analyzed that deepening reform in the long run and the downward trend in interest rates are the general trend in the future. In the second half of the year, we will continue to deepen LPR reform and promote the continued decline in loan real interest rates. The position of monetary policy remains stable, and monetary policy is more flexible and appropriate. In addition, to seize the key to reasonable profit-making, protect market players, pay more attention to changes in loan interest rates, continue to deepen LPR reform, promote the continued decline in loan real interest rates and significantly reduce corporate comprehensive financing costs.
Is it possible to cut interest rates and standards? CITIC Securities clearly believes that although the current inter-bank excess reserves are relatively sufficient, the pressure on the liquidity gap in July is greater, and the central bank may restart the RRR cut operation to support the future market credit; at the same time "promote the financial system to all types of The policy objective of "reasonable profits of 1.5 trillion yuan by enterprises" also requires a certain degree of reduction in the policy rate of the market outlook.
Wang Qing said that while the financial system is increasing concessions to the real economy, promoting wide credit with wide currencies is still the main transmission path of monetary policy. The policy of interest rate cuts and RRR cuts in the second half of the year is expected to continue. Among them, the MLF and OMO interest rates have about 40 basis points of downward adjustment space during the year; and the subsequent full-scale reduction may soon land, or it indicates that the monetary marginal tightening process since the middle and late May will be significantly eased. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)