Core point of view: Economic Daily News-China Economic Net columnist Qiao Ruiqing believes that money should be guarded against stimulating asset price rises and diversion of funds, to avoid disengagement. Therefore, in order to maintain the good momentum of consumption recovery in the second half of the year, we must focus on stabilizing employment and securing employment, and we must pay more attention to regulating the excessive growth of non-consumer expenditures to effectively conserve consumption capacity.
According to economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the first half of the year was 172.256 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%, a decrease of 7.6 percentage points from the first quarter; of which, a decrease of 3.9% in the second quarter, a decrease of 15.1 percentage points . In June, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 33526 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year, which was 1.0 percentage points narrower than that of May and an increase of 1.34% month-on-month.
Due to the need for epidemic prevention and control, the consumption of our residents was suppressed in the first half of this year. However, from the current data, consumption is recovering well. Undoubtedly, this is mainly due to the implementation of a series of policies to promote consumption from the central to the local level. On March 13, the National Development and Reform Commission and other 23 departments jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting Consumption Expansion and Quality Improvement and Accelerating the Formation of a Strong Domestic Market", and proposed 19 measures from six major aspects to promote consumption expansion and quality improvement for hedging The impact of the epidemic provides a targeted and strong policy basis. At the same time, various localities have introduced a series of policies and measures in line with local reality, and vigorously promote consumption through various activities such as subsidies, incentives, and the issuance of consumer coupons. The consumption incentives of "real money" have effectively mobilized consumption enthusiasm.
Of course, in the first half of the year, in the face of the severe test brought about by the epidemic situation and the complex and ever-changing domestic and international environment, consumption has been able to form a good recovery momentum, which is basically due to my country's huge market space and strong consumption capacity. The ever-expanding consumer market and the ever-increasing consumption power have provided a solid foundation for the birth of new consumer formats and formed a strong support for the recovery of consumption.
Consumption plays a fundamental role in economic development. In order to get rid of the negative impact of the epidemic, our economy must play a fundamental role in good consumption. This requires continuous expansion of market space, continuous enhancement of consumption capacity, so that people can consume, willing to consume, dare to consume. Consumption power comes from stable and sustainable income. To form a predictable income base, on the one hand, we must stabilize employment and ensure employment, on the other hand, we must encourage the conversion of income to consumption, and reduce the non-consumption expenditures squeezing consumption expenditures.
Statistics show that in the first half of the year, 5.64 million people were employed in cities and towns nationwide, and 62.7% of the annual target tasks were completed. The decline in the actual income of residents narrowed. In the first half of the year, the national per capita disposable income of the country was 15,666 yuan, a nominal increase of 2.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.6 percentage points faster than that in the first quarter. After deducting the price factor, the actual decrease was 1.3%, and the decline narrowed by 2.6 percentage points. The stable employment situation is conducive to stabilizing income expectations, and the role of increasing income in increasing consumption is gradually emerging.
However, it is worth noting that the abnormal rise in housing prices in some places in the first half of the year has guided the real estate market's expectations, which may reduce the consumption expenditures of home buyers and plan buyers. In addition, the "bull" situation in the stock market is also stimulating capital to enter the market. Many people may therefore compress or delay consumer spending and use money to catch up.
According to data released by the People's Bank of China, at the end of June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 213.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.1% year-on-year. Money is invested to serve the high-quality development of the economy, either into the real economy to help production, or into the circulation field to promote consumption. Currency issuance should be careful not to stimulate asset price increases, divert funds, and avoid falling out of reality. Therefore, in order to maintain the good momentum of consumption recovery in the second half of the year, we must focus on stabilizing employment and securing employment, and we must pay more attention to regulating the excessive growth of non-consumer expenditures to effectively conserve consumption capacity. (Economic Daily-China Economic Net columnist Qiao Ruiqing)