China Automobile Association optimistic forecast
The automobile market is expected to develop steadily in the second half of the year
The new energy automobile industry still needs greater policy support, our reporter Liu Jin
At the "China Association of Automobile Manufacturers 2020 China Media Communication Conference" held on July 20, Fu Bingfeng, executive vice chairman and secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, stated that the resumption of work and production has promoted a sharp rebound in the production and sales of the automobile industry in the second quarter. The performance is better than expected, and the automobile market will enter a relatively stable development process in the second half of the year.
As we all know, in the sudden outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the auto industry pressed the "pause button". Production and sales were basically suspended in February this year, and the production and operation activities of enterprises began to resume in March, and the situation improved slightly. In the first quarter, the cumulative year-on-year decline in domestic automobile production and sales was more than 40%, and the automobile industry was hit hard.
Fu Bingfeng said that under tremendous pressure, the whole industry is in the same boat, not afraid of difficulties, resolutely implement the decision and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and steadily promote the resumption of work and production. In April, automobile production and sales exceeded 2 million units for the first time in the year, and sales in a single month ended "21 consecutive declines", showing a momentum of recovery. Confidence in the production side was further improved in May, and demand on the consumer side was further released, and production and sales achieved double-digit growth year-on-year. In June, both ends of supply and demand continued to be good, and the production and sales of various models continued to grow.
According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first half of the year, domestic automobile production and sales totaled more than 10 million vehicles, which were 10.112 million and 10.257 million respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 16.8% and 16.9%. Judging from the overall situation in the first half of the year, the loss caused by the impact of the epidemic on the auto market has been made up to a certain extent. Although the overall cumulative auto production and sales growth is still negative, the overall auto production and sales situation has been significantly better than expected. From a global perspective, the speed and degree of recovery of my country's auto industry are leading, showing strong resilience and recovery momentum.
The improvement of the domestic automobile market is inseparable from the joint efforts of the entire industry. In the past six months, the China Automobile Association has paid close attention to the impact of the epidemic on the industry and its impact on enterprises, and has carried out a series of intense, orderly and pragmatic work. It has provided strong support for government departments and industry enterprises to grasp the situation and reflect their demands, and effectively helped the auto industry to resume work and production.
Although the auto market suffered huge losses due to the epidemic in the first half of the year, Fu Bingfeng holds optimistic expectations for the industry development trend in the second half of the year. "The market will enter a relatively stable development process in the second half of the year, basically the same as last year; if the market recovers well in the second half of the year, the annual auto market decline may return to less than 10%." Fu Bingfeng said.
First, from a structural point of view, driven by major benefits such as various macroeconomic policies, infrastructure investment policies, emission standards switching, over-regulation limits, and highway toll-by-axle, commercial vehicles will maintain substantial growth in the second half of the year, while passenger vehicles The car will continue to face relatively greater downward pressure.
Second, in the field of passenger cars, the mid-to-high-end market is relatively stable and will still perform well in the second half of the year, while the low-end market will continue to shrink further, and Chinese brands will face more severe challenges.
Third, the new energy vehicle market has experienced a sharp decline due to many factors such as a sharp decline in subsidies, mileage constraints, insufficient charging infrastructure, and lack of effective business models. During the epidemic, the travel market encountered a "ceiling", and personal consumption is still in a slow starting stage, and there is no real outbreak point. The new energy automobile industry also needs greater policy support on the market side.