(Economic Observation) The recovery growth trend shows that China's economy returns to the "positive" track in the second quarter
China News Agency, Beijing, July 16 (Reporter Wang Enbo) Chinese officials announced the economic "semi-annual report" on the 16th. After the negative GDP growth due to the impact of the epidemic in the first quarter of this year, the Chinese economy returned to the "positive" track in the second quarter.
The data disclosed that day showed that China's GDP fell by 1.6% year-on-year in the first half of the year. In terms of quarters, the first quarter decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, and the second quarter increased by 3.2%. From a quarter-on-quarter perspective, GDP increased by 11.5% in the second quarter.
Liu Aihua, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics of China, commented that, overall, the Chinese economy gradually overcome the adverse effects of the epidemic in the first half of the year, and the economic operation showed a recovery and steady recovery, and the development resilience and vitality were further demonstrated.
One of the footnotes of a steady recovery is the gradual recovery of many major indicators.
In the second quarter, in addition to the GDP growth rate turned negative to positive, the added value of China's above-scale industries decreased from 8.4% in the first quarter to an increase of 4.4%; the added value of the service industry also changed from a decrease of 5.2% in the first quarter to an increase of 1.9%. At the same time, the decline in total retail sales of consumer goods in the second quarter narrowed by 15.1 percentage points from the first quarter; the decline in fixed asset investment in the first half of the year narrowed by 13.0 percentage points from the first quarter.
Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, said that the above data shows that after an active adjustment in the first half of the year, the repair of the "inner cycle" of the Chinese economy has been largely completed. From the import and export data from April to June, thanks to the completeness of the entire industry chain and the leading epidemic prevention advantage, the link between China's "inner circulation" and the global "outer circulation" is still tough.
At the same time, employment and people's livelihood are the two "bottom lines" of China's current economic development.
In June, the surveyed unemployment rate in China’s cities and towns was 5.7%, a slight decrease for two consecutive months. Among them, the surveyed unemployment rate of the 25-59-year-old population was 5.2%. In terms of poverty alleviation, in the first half of the year, in Sichuan, Guizhou, and Guangxi, where there are many poor people, the per capita disposable income of rural residents increased by 5.5% to 7.6% year-on-year.
Especially in view of the increased employment pressure this year, Liu Aihua said that giving priority to job stability and protecting people's livelihood is the focus of this year's work and the key task of the "six guarantees" and "six stability". Governments at all levels have taken very positive measures to do a good job in employment. At present, China's economic recovery is relatively obvious, and fundamental changes will also have a stable effect on employment.
In addition, the increased momentum in the emerging sectors is accumulating energy for the further recovery of the Chinese economy.
Before the epidemic, the scale of China's new kinetic energy was already on par with some of the old kinetic energy. During the epidemic, new modes such as remote office, online education, and unmanned distribution effectively resolved some of the plugging points and difficulties in real life. The new technologies represented by cloud computing, big data, and artificial intelligence developed rapidly. The digital economy and intelligent manufacturing , Life and health and other new industries have bred more economic growth poles.
Data show that in the first half of the year, the value added of China's high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 4.5% year-on-year, accounting for 14.7% of the added value of industries above designated size, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the same period last year. "New infrastructure" and other related products are also growing faster, such as urban rail vehicles in the first half of the year increased by 13%, charging pile output increased by 11.9%.
With the overall results of anti-epidemic and development showing, China's economy fell first and then rose in the first half of the year. With the global epidemic situation still unclear, can this momentum continue in the second half of the year?
In Cheng Shi's view, at the domestic demand level, the once-behind consumption engine is expected to accelerate and recover, helping the economic growth rate return to the long-term central level; at the policy level, the monetary policy remains flexible and moderate, and the RRR cut and interest rate reduction tools are expected to begin in the third quarter Step by step with small amplitude and multiple frequencies. Under the intersection of the two major trends, the resilience advantage of the Chinese economy in the second half of the year is expected to become a scarce resource in the global market.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, believes that in the next stage, as the domestic epidemic prevention and control trend gradually improves, and various counter-cyclical regulatory policies continue to exert force, the Chinese economy is expected to maintain its recovery trend and achieve a small positive growth throughout the year. But at the same time, we must also see that the international environment is still facing many factors of instability and uncertainty, the impact of the epidemic will continue, and we need to continue to strengthen and improve macro-control to stabilize and expand domestic demand. (Finish)