In June 70, the number of housing price increases expanded, and Yinchuan new houses and Shenzhen second-hand houses led the rise
On the morning of July 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released the "Changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium cities in June 2020." Data show that in June, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the prices of newly built commercial housing in 61 cities increased month-on-month, and 4 cities increased from 57 cities in May. Among them, Yinchuan led by 1.9%; in terms of second-hand housing, there were 50 cities There was a month-on-month rise, and there were an increase of 9 cities from the 41 cities in May, of which Shenzhen led the rise, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9%.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, said that simple calculations indicate that 79.3% of large and medium-sized cities have seen house prices rise, the highest point in the past 12 months, which is the same as July 2019. From the perspective of development trends, the upward trend has already emerged.
The number of new houses rose to 61 cities
Overall, 61 of the 70 cities saw a rise in the price of newly built commercial housing, compared with 57 in May, and the number of cities that rose in June was the highest in a year.
According to Zhang Dawei's data on housing prices in 70 major cities across the country, housing prices in 61 cities of newly-built residences have risen, which is the same as the highest point in the third quarter of 2019, and the seven downward adjustments are also the lowest after July 2019. The impact of the epidemic has basically come to an end, with house prices recovering in June.
In terms of cities, the National Bureau of Statistics data showed that in June, preliminary estimates showed that the sales prices of newly built commercial housing in four first-tier cities rose by 0.6% month-on-month, or 0.1 percentage points lower than last month; the sales prices of newly built commercial housing in 31 second-tier cities were quarter-on-quarter. It rose 0.9%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the sales price of newly built commercial housing in 35 third-tier cities rose 0.8% from the previous month, and the increase was 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
In terms of individual cities, Yinchuan led the way with an increase of 1.9%, followed by Tangshan and Huizhou, both up 1.5% from the previous month. In first-tier cities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose by 0.4%, 0.5%, 0.6% and 0.8% respectively. At the same time, the two hot cities of Hangzhou and Nanjing rose by 1.2% and 1.0% respectively.
In terms of year-on-year terms, the sales prices of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities rose by 3.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the sales prices of newly built commercial housing in second-tier and third-tier cities increased by 5.3% and 4.6% year-on-year, respectively, and the growth rate decreased by 0.1 from last month Percentage points, 0.2 percentage points.
Zhang Dawei believes that the main reason why housing prices out of the first quarter's decline in June was mainly due to the stable and loose control policies in various regions in the first half of the year. Various talent policies have a great impact on second- and third-tier cities. Housing prices are inevitable. Relatively loose credit policies are also Mortgage and developer funds have a big impact.
Shenzhen, Wuxi lead 70 second-hand housing prices
In terms of second-hand housing, among the 70 cities, 50 cities saw a month-on-month increase in June and 41 cities in May, the highest point since June 2019.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, said that the number of cities where second-hand housing prices have increased has increased, and market expectations are changing.
In terms of city levels, in June, the sales prices of second-hand residential properties in four first-tier cities rose by 1.0% month-on-month, or a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; the sales prices of second-hand residential properties in 31 second-tier cities and 35 third-tier cities all increased by 0.5% month-on-month. The increase was 0.1 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points higher than last month.
On a year-on-year basis, second-hand residential sales prices in first-tier cities rose 5.2% year-on-year, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month; second-hand residential sales prices in second-tier cities rose 2.0% year-on-year, the same increase as last month; second-hand residential sales prices in third-tier cities rose 2.0 year-on-year %, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.
Specific to a single city, in June, Shenzhen led the rise of second-hand housing prices in 70 cities, up 1.9% month-on-month, followed by Wuxi, Xining, and Yinchuan, up 1.6%, 1.4%, and 1.4% respectively. Among the first-tier cities, except Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou also rose 0.7%, 0.4%, and 0.8%, respectively. Among the second-tier hot cities, Ningbo and Hangzhou rose 1.2% and 1.0% respectively.
Yan Yuejin said that judging from the list of cities where house prices rose month-on-month, Shenzhen is a city where house prices are rising faster. In fact, there has been much hype in the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen, especially in some schools with better school districts in Qianhai and other areas. Projects, price increases are relatively obvious. Looking at the year-on-year increase, Shenzhen's increase is also the second highest in the country, which is related to the continued price increase this year.
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at Shell Research Institute, believes that among the first-tier cities, Shenzhen's housing prices have the highest increase, which is related to the supply and structure of Shenzhen's commercial housing. At the same time, some investment demand has entered the market through financial credit channels, fueling market expectations.
Shenzhen, Dongguan and other hot cities tightened regulation
It is worth noting that due to the overheated property market and the soaring housing prices, Shenzhen has finally introduced a tightening policy for regulation. On July 15, the Shenzhen Housing and Urban-rural Construction Bureau and other departments jointly issued the "Notice on Further Promoting the Steady and Healthy Development of Our City's Real Estate Market," covering purchase restrictions and upgrades, second-hand housing tax increases, luxury housing taxation, and credit tightening. For example, in terms of purchase restrictions, Shenzhen households and adult singles (including divorces) must have settled in the city for 3 years and can provide proof of personal income tax or social insurance that has been continuously paid for 36 months or more in the city before the date of purchase. Commercial housing can be purchased. In terms of second-hand housing taxes and fees, the VAT exemption period for individual housing transfers was adjusted from 2 to 5 years.
In addition to Shenzhen, cities such as Hangzhou, Dongguan, and Ningbo have recently introduced varying degrees of tightening policies to cool the property market.
Zhang Dawei believes that, on the whole, the common denominator of these cities' policies is that the property market is hot, house prices have risen significantly, and there has been a hype atmosphere. Among them, the tightening policy of Shenzhen Bajo Real Estate has a greater impact, and it is expected that the market will begin to cool down significantly in July. In the second half of 2020, the operation of the real estate market mainly depends on changes in credit policies. The housing prices have risen significantly. The regulation of cities has also been strengthened. It is expected that the trend of market stability will not change.
Beijing News reporter Duan Wenping