China News Service Client, Beijing, July 16 (Reporter Li Jinlei) Amidst the clamor of steel collisions on the construction site, amidst the turbulent fireworks, the Chinese economy has ushered in a "V"-shaped rebound. Negative to positive, an increase of 3.2% year-on-year.
Wei Lei Chao Zhang Jianyuan Cartography
"V" rebound from -6.8% to 3.2%
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 16th, preliminary calculations showed that the GDP in the first half of the year was 456.1614 trillion yuan, which was a 1.6% year-on-year decrease at comparable prices. In terms of quarters, the first quarter decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, and the second quarter increased by 3.2%.
From a negative growth of 6.8% to a positive growth of 3.2%, China's economy fell first and then rose in the first half of the year. In the second quarter, economic growth changed from negative to positive, realizing a "V" rebound from squats to jumps.
Not only did GDP growth rate change from negative to positive, the main indicators also recovered.
Wei Lei Chao Zhang Jianyuan Cartography
Exports are growing for 3 consecutive months
The overall performance of foreign trade imports and exports in the first half of the year was better than expected. In June, imports and exports achieved positive growth both for the first time during the year. Exports have maintained positive year-on-year growth for three consecutive months since April.
Industrial added value has been growing for 3 consecutive months
In the first half of the year, the added value of the industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 1.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 7.1 percentage points from the first quarter. Among them, the increase in the second quarter was 4.4% and the decrease in the first quarter was 8.4%. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size has maintained positive growth for three consecutive months.
The decline in fixed asset investment has narrowed significantly
In the first half of the year, national fixed asset investment (excluding farm households) was 28.163 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from January to May, and a decrease of 13.0 percentage points from the first quarter. Investment in the high-tech industry and the social sector rebounded.
Consumption has narrowed for 4 consecutive months
In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 1,722.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%, which was narrower than the first quarter by 7.6 percentage points; of which, the second quarter fell by 3.9%, and 15.1 percentage points from the first quarter. The total retail sales of consumer goods narrowed for four consecutive months.
Let's look at the three major livelihood indicators of employment, price and income-
Unemployment rate drops
The unemployment rate in urban surveys nationwide has declined, and the employment situation is generally stable. In the first half of the year, 5.64 million people were employed in cities and towns across the country, completing 62.7% of the annual target. In June, the national unemployment rate in urban surveys was 5.7%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from May.
Price rises fall back high
In the first half of the year, national consumer prices rose by 3.8% year-on-year, or 1.1 percentage points lower than in the first quarter. In May, the CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year, and in June the CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year, maintaining the "2 era" for two consecutive months.
Wei Lei Chao Zhang Jianyuan Cartography
The decline in the actual income of residents narrowed
In the first half of the year, the national per capita disposable income of the country was 15,666 yuan, a nominal increase of 2.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.6 percentage points faster than that in the first quarter. After deducting the price factor, the actual decrease was 1.3%, and the decline narrowed by 2.6 percentage points.
The numbers are boring, but the public's feelings are real.
The auto market is hot and the property market is hot. In June, housing demand continued to release. The real estate market prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities rose slightly, and the sales prices of newly built commercial housing in four first-tier cities rose by 0.6% month-on-month.
At the same time, the fireworks also returned.
Traffic jams started on the road, traffic was reappearing on the streets, there were more people shopping and going to the restaurants, couriers started to deliver to the door, there were more children playing and playing, the community began to be decorated, and machines across the road came from the machine The roar, and the sound of steel collision...
Whether it is macro data or micro-feeling, China's economic recovery is getting stronger and stronger, and its economic vitality and pulse are getting stronger and stronger.
The “night economy” in Changsha gradually recovered. Citizens travel to taste food on summer evenings. Photo by Yang Huafeng
Why can China's economic growth quickly change from negative to positive?
Under the impact of the epidemic, the Chinese economy was forced to "squat down" in the first quarter, and GDP fell by 6.8% year-on-year. Just as a stalling giant wheel fell from the tip of the wave, the GDP growth rate in the first quarter was the lowest since the publication of the quarterly GDP in 1992.
Moreover, consumption, investment, and export "troika" all experienced negative growth, falling more than 10% year-on-year. Tourism, catering, accommodation and other industries also suffer from "freeze" and suffer.
In the second quarter, China's economy quickly achieved a "jump" from falling to rising, while maintaining the overall stability of the economy and society, it was extremely difficult. As the world's second largest economy with 1.4 billion people, why can China's economy take the lead from negative to positive?
This is directly related to China's first control of the epidemic and the first resumption of production.
"In the second quarter, economic growth changed from negative to positive, which is in line with market expectations." Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, told reporters from China News that after the outbreak of the new coronary pneumonia, the Chinese government coordinated the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic development, taking the lead in controlling it globally Having lived the epidemic, and took the lead in achieving full-scale resumption of production and achieved remarkable results, this highlights the strong resilience and potential of the Chinese economy.
Liu Aihua, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the Comprehensive Statistics Department of the National Economy, believes that China's economic self-adjusting ability is relatively strong. my country has a perfect industrial system, increasingly perfect infrastructure, and huge market advantages. These advantages will still effectively deal with the impact of the epidemic in the next stage.
During the epidemic, the situation is in danger.
During the epidemic, many new industries, new formats and new models were born, including remote office, online education, intelligent construction, unmanned distribution, etc. These new models effectively resolved some of the plugging points and difficulties in real life. Cloud computing, New technologies represented by big data and artificial intelligence are developing rapidly, and new industries such as digital economy, intelligent manufacturing, and life health have formed more growth poles.
Wen Bin analyzed that the development of these new industries, new formats and new models has also promoted the stabilization and recovery of the Chinese economy, and the transformation and upgrading.
Data Map: A real estate building just completed. China News Agency reporter Zhang Binshe
The Chinese economy is expected to continue to recover in the second half of the year
Regarding the trend of China's economy in the second half of the year, Liu Aihua analyzed that the continued recovery of the economy in the second half of the year is supportive. First, the steady recovery of the economy in the first half of the year laid a solid foundation for continued recovery in the second half of the year. Second, many new industries, new formats and new models were born during the epidemic, which will continue to provide strong support for economic recovery. Third, the effects of macro policies will be further shown.
"From these favorable conditions, we are confident that the economy will continue to recover in the second half of the year. At the same time, the economic recovery is also based, promising and conditional." Liu Aihua said.
CITIC Securities believes that the prosperity of domestic production activities continued in June, and investment and consumption continued to improve. The economy in the second half of the second quarter has shown a gradual transition from recovery to recovery after the epidemic to a cyclical upward trend. June is an important watershed in economic fundamentals.
Wen Bin analyzed that if the epidemic does not come back in the second half of the year, the economy will have a clear recovery. Both the consumption level and the investment level have greater potential and room for growth. From a policy point of view, the countercyclical regulation in the second half of the year has a large operating space, both from a fiscal and monetary perspective, which will further stabilize the market and expand domestic demand, so that the economy will continue to rebound. Sustainable growth.
Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, analyzed that the global economy recovered gradually in the second half of the year under the benchmark assumption that there was no large-scale rebound in the epidemic. It is expected that China's economic growth will rebound sharply, rising to about 6% in the fourth quarter, and will rise further next year.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the "World Economic Outlook" on June 24, pointing out that the Chinese economy is recovering from the sharp contraction in the first quarter. The growth rate in 2020 is expected to be 1.0%, the only positive growth among the major economies. of. (Finish)