(Economic Observation) Shenzhen and other four cities have successively increased overweight regulation or opened a new round of tightening regulation in China's property market
China News Agency, Beijing, July 15th (Reporter Pang Wuji) The Chinese property market has ushered in a "slam brake". Soon after the second half of 2020, four cities, Hangzhou, Dongguan, Ningbo and Shenzhen, have introduced new policies one after another to tighten the “reins” of property market regulation. The industry believes that this may mean the beginning of a new round of tightening of real estate regulation and control.
On the 15th, Shenzhen wielded a heavy punch in the property market regulation and announced the tightening of the housing purchase policy to combat speculative housing speculation.
The main eight measures include: tightening purchase restrictions, purchasing residential housing in Shenzhen for three years and paying 36 months of continuous tax or social security; blocking "fake divorce", and calculating the total number of family before divorce within three years of divorce, Before the divorce, the family had 2 sets of commercial housing. After the divorce, any family member could not buy commercial housing in Shenzhen. If the loan was upgraded and there was already one suite, the down payment ratio for repurchasing the housing rose to 70%, and 80% for non-ordinary housing.
Many policies are aimed at "precision strikes". For example: just settled down and couldn't buy a house. Prior to settlement in Shenzhen, you can buy a house, and the talent introduction policy has lowered the threshold for settlement (for example: college graduates under 35 years of age, undergraduate graduates under 45 years of age, etc. can be approved to settle down), the "restriction of purchase" policy is effective discount. This time the policy stipulates that you can only buy a house after three years of settlement, and put a "patch" on the previous policy loopholes. At the same time, this policy also made corresponding provisions for some people to adopt the "fake divorce" method to obtain the qualification to purchase a house, or to lower the loan threshold.
Since the beginning of this year, the rapidly rebounding Shenzhen property market has been at the cusp. Since March, Shenzhen has been exposed to the “Second Light” of thousands of Marriott properties, thousands of people grabbing 5 suites, the purchase of a house and the payment of millions of yuan (RMB, the same below) as a “tea drinking fee”, and the degree room “jump”. The supply and demand in the property market are very tight.
According to data provided by Zhuge Looking for Housing, in the first half of 2020, there were 43,586 second-hand residential transactions in Shenzhen, with a cumulative increase of 39.9% year-on-year, which was significantly higher than that of Beijing (-5.8%) and Shanghai (-8.4%), which are also first-tier cities. House prices are more "strong". As of June, the average price of the second-hand residential market in Shenzhen was about 69,600 yuan per square meter, ranking first among the hundred cities, with a cumulative increase of 8.0% year-on-year in the first half of the year.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, pointed out that Shenzhen is the "leader" of the latest round of property market rises in the country, and there is a strong investment hype in the Shenzhen property market. The introduction of policies will significantly dampen the demand for investment speculation. It is expected that some investors will start to leave the market. The transaction volume will shrink rapidly in the next month, and house prices will also be adjusted by about 5%.
Where the overheated property market ushered in regulation and control of "cold water," this has frequently occurred since the second half of the year. In early July, three hot cities in Hangzhou, Dongguan, and Ningbo tightened property market regulation one after another. For example, on July 6, Ningbo introduced ten new policies to stabilize the real estate market, including expanding the area of restricted purchases, stabilizing land prices, and cracking down on sales. In the first half of the year, Hangzhou City, which had five "ten thousand people's number" real estates, also introduced the number one new policy.
In addition to local policies, there are also signs of tightening in the real estate financial sector.
Although the supply of broad money M2 and the scale of social financing both maintained double-digit year-on-year growth in the first half of the year, the proportion of new household loans in all new loans fell to a low level in recent years.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, pointed out that in the early years, new household loans (mainly housing loans) accounted for more than 40% of all new loans, but these years, under the guidance of corresponding policies, this proportion Declining year by year, the proportion of household loans from January to May this year has fallen to 25%. Although the data rebounded slightly to 29.4% from January to June, this is still the lowest in the first half of the past eight years. This shows that official policies are still inclined to combat property market violations and leverage to curb real estate financialization.
Another signal of strict regulation comes from more and more places withdrawing quickly after loosening regulation.
For example, in early July, Huailai County, Hebei Province, the previous "restricted purchase" policy document expired and was abolished, but no new documents were issued locally to connect with it, and the market was deemed to cancel the restricted purchase. However, on the 2nd, Huailai County officially issued a statement saying that it did not abolish the purchase restriction policy nor relax the regulation of the real estate market. Since the beginning of this year, 13 loosening control policies across the country have been quickly withdrawn.
In the first 182 days of the first half of the year, China's real estate market experienced a recurring process from the closing of sales offices, the suspension of property market transactions to the gradual recovery of the market, and then to the overheated property market in some markets and the queuing to buy houses. This also led to a shift in the property market policy from "overall loosening" to "partial tightening".
According to statistics from the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, in the first half of this year, real estate-related policies were issued 304 times nationwide. These policies were mainly based on support and bailout policies, which brought warmth to the property market. However, at the beginning of the "second half", as more regulation and control "cold water" splashed, this policy warming is gradually fading. (Finish)