BBVA Research blackens forecasts for the Spanish economy. And it does it, in addition, in a very important way. The entity's studies service estimates that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will suffer a 11.5% drop in the current year, which means that its previous estimate will worsen by 3.5 points .

"The downward revision of growth in 2020 is explained by the extension of the containment measures for a period longer than expected; by the greater impact of the restrictions on domestic demand ; by a greater concentration of the reduction in spending in the goods and services produced internally, and by the contraction of the tourist sector , "explains the document Spain Situation related to the third quarter that Jorge Sicilia, Rafael Doménech and Miguel Cardoso presented this Tuesday.

For next year, the expected rebound will be 7%, which will form an "incomplete recovery in V" and which will also be heterogeneous, Doménech explained, that is, that the progress will be very uneven between territories. In any case, the rebound will be totally insufficient to match the drop this year and, in fact, Cardoso has stressed that previous levels will not be recovered throughout the analyzed horizon. That is, that in 2021 the Spanish economy will still be far from the point it reached in the last quarter of 2019, and " even in 2022 it would be in doubt to return to those levels of activity, " he added.

A runaway deficit

No less impressive is the deficit estimate offered by BBVA Research, since it estimates that the deviation will be greater than 14%. Taking into account the estimate of nominal GDP that is handled for this year, the expected data will show a deficit of just over 160,000 million euros . "It is an unprecedented fiscal situation," Doménech has made clear, "which dwarfs the deterioration in public accounts that we saw during the great recession."

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