Off-site allocation is now being "shouted" twice a week

　　The China Securities Regulatory Commission exposes 258 illegal OTC funding agencies

　　The Shanghai stock index rose 7.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 9.96%, and the GEM Index rose 12.83%... Although the Shanghai Index lost 3400 points last Friday and ended eight consecutive gains, the strong market in the previous four days has been down for a long time. Market sentiment ignited. On the same day, the turnover of A shares exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan, breaking trillion yuan for seven consecutive days.

　　When market sentiment was high, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the China Banking Regulatory Commission successively shouted about off-site funding. On July 11, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission stated that it would strictly investigate the behavior of indiscriminately adding leverage and speculation, and urged the guidance of funds to "extract from reality. In-depth development of market chaos will be carried out to "look back", and severely crack down on capital emptying and illegal arbitrage according to law.

　　Regarding the future trend of A-shares, experts said that the adjustment on July 10 was temporary, and the market has already started. However, some insiders said that there is already a downward momentum, and this wave of rebounds is basically over.

Keyword 1 Off-site allocation

　　The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission have issued strict investigations

　　On July 8, after the A shares stood at 3400 points, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that it would strictly investigate off-site allocation. On the evening of the same day, the China Securities Regulatory Commission exposed the list of 258 illegal off-site funding platform organizations. It is understood that more than 100 illegal platforms will be exposed in the near future.

　　Three days later, the China Banking Regulatory Commission’s official website released the “China Banking Regulatory Commission Press Spokesperson’s Questions”, which also mentioned content closely related to A shares: First, some market chaos rebounded, and some funds flowed into the real estate market illegally, pushing up assets The bubble; the second is to urge and guide funds out of deficiency

　　"Currently, we must strengthen supervision of capital flow, standardize cross-market capital transactions and business cooperation, prohibit bancassurance institutions from participating illegally in off-site allocation, strictly investigate the behavior of leverage and speculation, prevent asset bubbles, and ensure that financial resources flow to entities. The areas and links most needed in the economy." The China Banking Regulatory Commission said.

　　This is seen as a more stringent measure of de-leveraging and "extinguishing the stock market". In fact, the supervisory authority shut down the off-site access system in 2015, making the popular off-site funding model difficult at that time. However, a recent survey by the Beijing News reporter found that under the A-share surge, investors' enthusiasm for entering the market rose, and the off-site funding platform became active, and the "trick" has also been renovated. At present, many fund-raising platforms are hiding in social media, some of which provide up to 12 times leverage, and the maximum loan capital can reach 50 million. In addition, there is an interest-free fund-raising model.

【Interpretation】

　　Allowing capital to speculate in the stock market may hurt the real economy

　　Regarding the two financial supervisory departments' successive investigations on the off-site allocation, Dong Dengxin, director of the Institute of Financial Securities of Wuhan University of Science and Technology, told the Beijing News reporter that China's economy is still in the recovery period, and there are still some recovery in production and life after the epidemic. Difficulties, the central government has used various means to support the revitalization of the real economy and the financing development of small and medium-sized enterprises. If you let the capital of enterprises and social funds enter the stock market for speculation, it may cause more harm to the real economy.

　　Regarding the chaos of capital allocation, if Guan Qingyou, the dean of the Financial Research Institute, reminded ordinary investors not to leverage leveraged stocks, the risk is extremely great. It advises ordinary investors to make efforts to choose the track after clarifying the macro trends, and find a good target. Don’t rush to start when the bull market comes. If you insist on investing yourself, you must diversify your investment, partly to institutions, partly to buy public funds, partly to buy private funds, etc.

　Keywords 2 Frequent reductions in holdings

　　"National Team" announced many reduction plans

　　In addition to off-site allocation, the social security fund and the big fund, which are the funds of the "national team", have successively announced several reduction plans, which have also become the focus of public opinion.

　　On July 9, a number of A-share listed companies including Huiding Technology, Beidou Xingtong, and Taiji Industry issued a pre-disclosure announcement on shareholder shareholding reduction, stating that large funds plan to reduce their shareholdings in the company, ranging from 1% to 2%. As announced by the Big Dipper, the National IC Industry Investment Fund, which holds 11.99% of the shares, intends to reduce its holdings of not more than 9,978,500 shares of the company through centralized bidding transactions, and does not intend to reduce its shares by more than 2% of the company's total share capital.

　　On the same day, China People's Insurance issued an announcement that the National Council for Social Security Fund plans to reduce its holdings of the company's A shares by no more than 884 million shares within six months after 15 trading days through centralized bidding or block trading, that is, no more than the company's current issued shares. 2% of the total number of shares.

　　Earlier, the Social Security Fund had held PICC shares for nine years. In response, the PICC responded that the Social Security Foundation's plan to reduce the company's A shares was due to asset allocation and investment business needs, and it was its regular investment business arrangement. The reduced shares were its 2011 Shares invested by strategic investors before the PICC's listing.

　　"Social Security Foundation holds 16.54% of the company's total issued shares, of which A shares are 15.36%, this reduction plan is up to 884 million A shares, not more than 2% of the company's total issued shares, Social Security Foundation As the company's important strategic investor status will not change." China People's Insurance said.

【Interpretation】

　　Relative hedging behavior makes the portfolio more rational

　　"National team" generously reduce holdings, A shares want to cool down? In Dong Dengxin's view, the current structural bull market and the valuation of a considerable number of individual stocks have been severely high. It is a relatively safe-haven behavior for the "national team" fund to actively adjust positions or reduce holdings. From long-term investment, value investment, From the perspective of rational investment, it is necessary to adjust the structure of positions and asset allocation to make the portfolio more rational. It is necessary to properly throw out overvalued stocks.

　　Qian Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, told the Beijing News reporter that the market has recently been hot, the stock market has risen sharply, and the valuation of some stocks is also relatively high. Some institutions have taken profits and reduced their holdings. Don’t over-interpret. In addition, Kang Chongli, deputy dean of Guangdong Development Securities Research Institute, believes that because the current position is safer and the market turnover is larger, the reduction of holdings is also a reasonable realization.

　Keyword 3 market outlook

　　In July, A-shares lifted the ban on peak deposit and reduction pressure

　　In addition to the reduction of holdings, the new wave of lifting the ban may bring new impact. Statistics show that, excluding science and technology board companies, a total of 43 stocks in the two cities faced lifting this week. Based on the latest closing price, the total market value of lifting the ban is 88.641 billion yuan.

　　CITIC Securities reminded that the market value of the A-share ban in July was 595.2 billion yuan, the highest peak of the year, of which the scale of the science and technology board lifting was 240 billion yuan, reaching 183% of the market value of free circulation. In addition, unlike the peak lift in the past three years, this peak lift is also accompanied by high valuations and greater pressure to reduce holdings.

　　On July 10, the three major A-share stock indexes were mixed. The Shanghai index closed down 1.95% and fell below 3400 points, ending the "eight consecutive gains" market. Xingzheng Macro believes that the entrance of internal and external incremental funds may not be over yet. Judging from the logic of external incremental funds in this round, since the epidemic spread outside the country, the Fed's large-scale water release has supported this round of rebound in US stocks. However, after the recent rebound in US stocks, the momentum for funds to continue to bottom out has weakened. In this context, the funds chose to enter the “value depression” A-shares where the current round of growth was relatively backward for allocation. Judging from the logic of the internal incremental funds in this round, the wealth management products break the net and promote the reallocation of residents. Since the bond market adjustment in May, a considerable portion of wealth management products have fallen below their net worth, which has pushed residents' incremental funds into the stock market.

【Interpretation】

　　Slow cow or rally is over, investors should not chase up and down

　　Regarding the market outlook, Yang Delong believes that now the market has gradually shifted from the fast bull stage to the slow bull stage, and there will be certain fluctuations in the rise of the market, rather than a unilateral rise.

　　"To maintain confidence in this round of the market, the adjustment on July 10 is temporary. The market has already started and will not end so soon. Everyone still has to stick to value investment and start from the fundamentals to screen out stocks that can be invested in for a long time. Don't chase up and down, don't choose some concept stocks, theme stocks." Yang Delong said.

　　However, some in the industry are relatively conservative. Dong Dengxin told reporters that from a technical point of view, the height of the rebound depends on the trend of the stock prices of the four state-owned banks of the workers, peasants and construction companies. At present, there has been a downward trend, and the head brokers have also seen a callback. The rebound from 2800 to 3400 is very strong, and this wave of rebound is basically over.

　　Beijing News reporter Cheng Weimiao