China-Singapore Jingwei client, July 12 (Wu Yihan) Since July, the A-share market has continued to rise, and the number of brokers opening accounts has increased significantly. The Sino-Singapore Jingwei client reminds that the stock market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. Next week (July 13th-July 19th), what heavy financial events will affect your "money bag"? Let's watch together in advance!
Data release
Next week, China will release a number of economic data such as GDP for the second quarter, industrial added value in June, fixed asset investment, and total retail sales of consumer goods.
Internationally, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, the European Union and other countries and regions will release June CPI data; Germany and the European Union will release the ZEW economic status and prosperity index for July; the United States will release data such as new home construction in June and total retail sales.
Market hotspot
1. China will announce GDP for the second quarter
According to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics, a press conference on the operation of the national economy will be held on July 16 (next Thursday). According to the arrangement of the main statistical information release schedule of the National Bureau of Statistics in 2020, the press release on the operation of the national economy At the meeting, indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), fixed asset investment, and total retail sales of consumer goods for the second quarter will be released.
Second, the GEM registration system ushered in the first trial of IPO
On July 9, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued an announcement that the GEM Listing Committee will hold the first listing committee review meeting in 2020 on July 13 (next Monday). In this review, there are 4 issuers, including 3 companies starting and 1 company refinancing. Kangtai Medical is listed as the first meeting.
According to the process, the members of the GEM Board of Directors will form a review opinion through a joint discussion. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange will issue an audit opinion that meets the issuance conditions, listing conditions and letter requirements, or make a decision to terminate the listing audit.
3. CCTV's "315 Evening Party" time will be announced at 8pm next Thursday
The CCTV program preview shows that the 2020 "315 Evening Party" has been scheduled to be broadcast at 8 pm on July 16 (next Thursday).
The "3·15 Evening Party" is a public welfare evening hosted by the National Radio and Television General Office of the United Nations to protect consumers' rights and interests and co-hosted on the evening of March 15 every year. The first party was broadcast on March 15, 1991. On March 9 this year, CCTV Finance announced that, with approval, in order to do its best to prevent and control the new coronary pneumonia, the broadcast of the 3.15 party of the Central Radio and Television Station in 2020 will be delayed.
4. The central bank may restart reverse repurchase operations next week
On July 10, the central bank issued an announcement saying that the current total liquidity of the banking system is at a reasonable and sufficient level, and no reverse repurchase operations will be carried out on that day. In the 10 trading days from June 29 to July 10, the central bank continued to suspend reverse repurchase operations. At the same time, since this month, 650 billion yuan of reverse repurchase in the open market has expired, and the central bank has realized a full net return.
According to Zhang Wei, chief macro researcher of Kunlun Insurance, according to the general operating habits of the central bank, reverse repurchases are usually increased in the middle of the month, and maintaining empty windows at the end of the month or early in the next month is close to normal.
V. The first batch of semi-annual reports of listed companies will be disclosed
Wind data shows that 12 listed companies will disclose semi-annual reports of listed companies next week, of which 9 listed companies have disclosed performance forecasts, 8 have achieved profitability, and 1 has suffered a loss. The biggest increase in performance is expected to be the pig company Muyuan, and the net profit is expected to increase by 1053.38%-1130.28% over the same period.
Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that the impact of the epidemic on listed companies is more obvious, which also makes high-growth companies more vulnerable to market attention. According to Guotai Junan statistics, since July, a total of 187 listed companies have announced the semiannual report performance forecast.
6. Special summit of EU member states leaders will be held next week
President of the Council of Europe Shire. Michelle previously announced that the EU will hold a special summit of EU leaders on July 17 and July 18 to discuss the EU recovery plan after the new coronary pneumonia epidemic and the fiscal budget from 2021 to 2027.
The summit will be the face-to-face meeting of 27 EU heads of state in Brussels since the outbreak of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in Europe in mid-March 2020. Earlier on June 19, leaders of EU member states held a video summit to discuss the EU recovery fund plan, but failed to reach a consensus. Allegedly, this special summit to be held in July, the leaders of the EU member states will work to reach agreement on the plan.
Forefront of the stock market
1. IPO opportunities
Next week, a total of 15 new shares will be purchased.
On July 13 (next Monday), there were 8 of them, namely Delinhai (subscription code: 787069), Shenhao Technology (subscription code: 300853), Dadixiong (subscription code: 787077), and Xin Pengwei (subscription code: 787508) ), Sansheng Guojian (subscription code: 787336) Lihewei (subscription code: 787589), Kesi shares (subscription code: 300856), Zhenyou Technology (subscription code: 787418).
On July 14 (next Tuesday), there were three of them, namely Chianxin (subscription code: 787561), Xichuang Data (subscription code: 300857), and Tunan (subscription code: 300855).
On July 15 (next Wednesday), there were two of them, namely Ketuo (subscription code: 300858) and Guansheng shares (subscription code: 707088).
On July 16 (next Thursday), there were two of them, which were divided into Huguang (subscription code: 707333) and Guoguang Chain (707188).
Second, institutions look at the future
Everbright Securities: The market has some overestimation and be wary of these three risks
Looking forward, the market has recently made new highs driven by optimism, but from a valuation perspective, based on the latest M2 data, the current A stock market value/M2 is located in the 78.0% historical quantile since 2011, compared to this indicator At the 36.3% quantile level at the end of the first quarter, the current market valuation is no longer significantly underestimated, and there is even a certain overestimation. Before the recovery of corporate profits is confirmed, the market may face a thrill from a currency-driven to a profit-driven one. jump.
In the short term, the market’s “created” reasons for the rise are falsified, the CPI and the overexpected rebound in housing prices, and the rapid exit of easing policies may put the market at risk of adjustment. The M2 data released today shows that the current domestic monetary policy remains generally loose, which means that the third risk has not yet appeared, but looking back, as time goes by, the closer the time is to the end of the third quarter, the probability of the above three risks The higher, investors still need to keep an eye on policy trends.
From the perspective of long-term investment, even if the market is adjusted due to the realization of the above three risks, investors do not need to significantly reduce their positions. After the recovery of corporate profits is confirmed, the market still has upward momentum. At that time, investors can consider adjusting the position structure. Increase the allocation of some non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, military industry and other periodic stocks.
Zhongyuan Securities: The market still has room to rise, and the cycle growth is more cost-effective
In general, with the continued recovery of performance growth during the economic recovery period, the liquidity to maintain a reasonable and ample "wide currency, wide credit" situation, coupled with the continuous advancement of capital market reform measures, the market still has room to rise, the trend of the bull market has not yet Seeing the turning point, most industries should have opportunities.
While periodic finances have picked up following economic recovery performance, technology growth has benefited from the booming cycle of 5G and new energy vehicles, which may replace consumer medicines with stable earnings expectations during the epidemic period and current high valuations in historical valuations, running out of higher excess returns.
Huaxin Securities: The next stage of A shares may usher in the speed control process
This Thursday (July 9) evening news is not calm. The first is that the Social Security Fund plans to reduce its shareholding in China People's Insurance by no more than 2%. Combined with the recent announcement of large shareholders' shareholding reductions that have emerged, the market has been increasing in the short term. It has indeed accumulated excessive gains; secondly, the news of unexplained pneumonia in Kazakhstan has caused concern, and the epidemic has always been one of the key factors affecting investor sentiment on the floor; in the end, US stocks weakened overnight, and the A50 index also showed weakness during the same period.
Based on the above factors, coupled with the fact that the market has indeed risen too fast and too large in recent days, we believe that the next phase of the index may have a process of speed control. The Shanghai Composite Index does not break through 3500 points too quickly. (Sino-Singapore Jingwei app)
(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)
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