China News Service Client, Beijing, July 10 (Peng Jingru) Stocks rose, and gold also rose. I don’t know who grabbed the limelight.
Seeing the news that "the spot gold price exceeded the $1800 per ounce mark", investor Mr. Sun was in a dilemma: "Recently, the stock market has also been singing all the way, and I don't know if I should take out a part of the test gold."
Break through $1800! Gold prices hit a new high of nearly nine years
On July 9th, the price of gold opened higher and lowered. The opening price of London gold spot was reported at 1808.17 US dollars per ounce, and the closing price was 1803.1 US dollars per ounce, a decrease of 0.3%.
The gold price that embarrassed Mr. Sun. On the 8th, the spot gold price in London just broke the $1800 mark, with the highest price reported at $1818.14 per ounce, setting a record high since September 2011, and finally closed at $1808.50 per ounce.
Data map: Taiyuan, Shanxi, gold bars displayed in a gold shop. Zhang Yunshe
"In March, gold once surged, but its performance was unstable." Mr. Sun explained that he was not very familiar with the gold market, so he was hesitant, but the recent momentum of gold has made him a little itchy.
"The gold trend from March to April basically replicated the market in 2008." Liu Dongbo, senior researcher of SDIC Precious Metals believes that after the US dollar liquidity crisis occurred in March, the "V-shaped" reversal of gold prices was mainly guided by global easing policies. The Fed cut interest rates to zero and opened unlimited quantitative easing, the nominal interest rate was reduced to a very low level, and the liquidity concerns of the US dollar were gradually removed.
Faced with the performance of international gold prices this week, Liu Dongbo told CNN that there are many factors that can affect the price of gold. In addition to risk aversion, gold prices are mainly dominated by the US real interest rate (nominal interest rate-inflation expectations) and the US dollar exchange rate. "Recently, both the U.S. real interest rate and the US dollar index are declining, which is a substantial positive for gold."
Gold stocks staged a rising and falling tide, and gold ETFs became delicious
With the rapid advancement of gold, gold ETFs (trading open-end index funds) have also ushered in their own highlight moments.
The World Gold Council issued a report on the 7th that as of the end of June, global gold ETFs have experienced net inflows for seven consecutive months, setting a historical record. In June, the global gold ETF total volume increased by 104 tons (about 5.5 billion US dollars), and the total position reached a record high of 3621 tons.
What is the relationship between gold ETF and gold price?
Liu Dongbo explained that the domestic gold ETF investment target is mainly the AU9999 gold spot contract listed on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The ETF trend is highly consistent with the domestic gold price, and it is a relatively low-cost, transparent and efficient gold investment tool.
"I have been trading stocks. I don't understand gold ETFs. Can gold stocks always follow?" some investors asked.
Affected by the upward price of gold, the gold concept stocks in the A-share market rose sharply on the 9th. More than a dozen stocks such as Zijin Mining, Chifeng Gold, Yuyuan shares, Yuancheng Gold, Yuancheng Gold have reached daily limit.
"However, the properties of gold stocks and physical gold assets are different!" Liu Dongbo reminded, "Although gold stocks tend to benefit from stronger gold prices, the correlation with gold prices is low, and it is more difficult to track the fundamentals of gold companies. The price elasticity is higher."
Do you want to buy gold instead of selling it?
"Stocks and gold ETFs have thresholds, can't I hoard some gold jewellery?" Miss Liu had wanted to buy some physical gold in March, but because of the high price of gold at that time, she did not buy it. "Now I regret it a bit and want to buy a gold bracelet, but now the price of gold is higher."
On the 9th, China Gold's data showed that the price of investment gold bars was 417.8 yuan/gram, craft gold bars were 427.8 yuan/gram, and high-end craft gold bars were 498 yuan/gram.
Jewelry brands have higher gold prices. Chow Tai Fook’s quotation was 13:41 on the 9th, which was 529 yuan/g; Liufu Jewelry’s 9th gold price was 529 yuan/g; , Gold gold tablets are 512 yuan / gram.
Data Map: Shanxi Taiyuan Yijin Store, employees display gold jewelry. China News Service reporter Zhang Yunshe
"Looking at the newly paid salary, it suddenly won't be fragrant. At this price, it is better to sell jewelry that was not often worn before to return to the blood." Miss Liu said.
The gold recycling business is really hot. Some media reported that “the price of gold has risen, and the business volume of gold recycling has increased significantly.” ChinaNews.com has called many gold shops and jewelry stores, and received a reply that the number of people consulting the gold and offline business online and offline has indeed increased to a certain extent.
"Now gold recycling can give 390 yuan/gram, which is the highest in nine years." A person in charge of a gold shop said that Au99.9%'s recycling price at the beginning of the year was 320 yuan/gram, and last year it was 280 yuan/gram. Gold customers are now selling, basically can make money.
The next target of gold price: 2000 USD/oz?
"Everything starts, gold is the real bull market." Some investors believe that it is not a wise choice to throw gold now.
Liu Dongbo believes that gold is one of the best performing assets among mainstream assets this year. When gold prices hit a new high, it is a reasonable choice for investors to take profits. "However, it is expected that there is still room for gold prices, investors can choose to sell in batches."
"The next target for gold is $2,000 per ounce!" At present, many mainstream investment banks predict that the price of gold will hit a record high in the next few months.
A few days ago, Goldman Sachs raised the gold price expectations for the next 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months to US$1800/oz, US$1900/oz, and US$2000/oz, compared to US$1600/oz, US$1650/oz and $1800 per ounce.
In addition, Citi analysts recently raised their gold price expectations for the next three months to $1825/oz, and expect to break through the $2,000/oz mark in early 2021.
Data map: RMB and USD. China News reporter Li Jinlei
Liu Dongbo said that the international gold price hit a record high of USD 1921/oz in 2011, and then hit the USD 1800/oz mark three times between 2011 and 2012 to no avail. After the current price of gold breaks through the important point of 1,800 US dollars per ounce, there is hardly much resistance above. If the price of gold can consolidate and stand at 1,800 US dollars per ounce, it may only be a matter of time before the historical high is hit.
"As for the high point that can be achieved in the future, it depends on the strength of the Fed's subsequent policies and the impact of global uncertainties."
So, do you choose to sell gold jewelry at the bottom of the box or not? (Finish)