In June, the CPI fell slightly from the previous month, and the CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year in the first half of the year-
China’s economy does not have the risk of inflation or deflation
Economic Daily · China Economic Net reporter Lin Huocan
In June, the CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year, and was in the "2 range" for two consecutive months. PPI decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, and the decrease was 0.7 percentage points narrower than last month. Experts said that CPI and PPI will continue to be in a reasonable operating range throughout the year, and there is no so-called inflation or deflation risk. It is necessary to flexibly adopt a variety of policy tools, maintain reasonable and sufficient market liquidity, guide funds to flow into the real economy and invest in effective production areas, and promote a virtuous cycle of investment, consumption and employment.
The National Bureau of Statistics released the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Industrial Producer Price Index (PPI) for June on July 9. The data shows that the CPI in June rose by 2.5% year-on-year, and was in the "2 range" for two consecutive months; PPI fell by 3.0% year-on-year, and fell for six consecutive months.
Experts said that in June, with the resumption of production and resumption of production and the resumption of business in the city, various regions and departments seriously implemented the central government's series of policies and measures for guaranteeing supply and stabilizing prices, and the market was generally stable. Looking forward to the whole year, CPI and PPI will continue to be in a reasonable operating range without the so-called inflation or deflation risks.
Storms and floods disturb the supply of vegetables
In June, the CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and was in the "2 range" for two consecutive months; the year-on-year increase fell by 2.9 percentage points from the high point at the beginning of the year.
In January this year, the CPI rose by 5.4% year-on-year, setting a new high for many years. Since entering March, the year-on-year increase in CPI has gradually declined. Affected by this, the CPI in the first half of the year rose by 3.8% year-on-year, basically in line with the price control target of about 3.5% last year.
"With the resumption of production and resumption of production and the resumption of business in the city, various regions and departments earnestly implement the central government's series of policies on supply and price stabilization, and the market is generally stable." Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics said.
In June, food prices increased by 11.1% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI increase of approximately 2.24 percentage points. Among them, the price of pork increased by 81.6% year-on-year, the prices of beef and mutton rose by 18.5% and 10.9%, respectively, and the changes were small compared with the previous month; the prices of aquatic products rose by 4.8%, and the increase increased by 1.1 percentage points; the price of fresh vegetables rose by 4.2 %, a decrease of 8.5% last month; the price of fresh fruit and eggs fell by 29.0% and 15.8%, respectively, and the decline increased by 9.7 and 1.3 percentage points, respectively.
Non-food prices rose by 0.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI rise of about 0.24 percentage points. Among them, the prices of education, culture, entertainment, and health care all rose by 1.9%, and the prices of transportation and communications fell by 4.6%, of which gasoline and diesel prices fell by 19.4% and 21.2%, respectively.
Guo Liyan, a researcher at the Market and Price Research Institute of the China Macroeconomic Research Institute, said that according to estimates, in the 2.5% year-on-year increase in June, the tailing effect of price changes last year was about 3.3 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was about -0.8 percentage points. It shows that the measures to ensure the supply and price stability of important people's livelihood commodities are effective and in place.
"The stable operation of the core CPI in the first half of the year indicates that the macroeconomic operation is generally stable and the dynamic balance of total supply and demand is good, and there are no abnormal fluctuations that exceed expectations." Guo Liyan said.
From a quarter-on-quarter perspective, the CPI fell by 0.1% in June, narrowing by 0.7 percentage points. Guo Liyan said that the current main factor affecting CPI is still the structural fluctuation of food prices. From the perspective of food price operation characteristics, the impact of the previous epidemic situation has basically subsided. At present, the production and circulation of major agricultural and sideline foods are in good order. In general, the market has sufficient effective supply. Natural disasters such as floods have some disturbing effects on the local prices of individual foods. .
Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Bank of Communications Finance Research Center, believes that from the perspective of prices in June, the overall market demand is still weak, especially in the tourism, cultural and sports entertainment, outdoor consumption and other fields, demand recovery is still slow.
Prices in the industrial sector have improved significantly
In June, the prices of international commodities recovered, the domestic manufacturing industry recovered steadily, and market demand continued to improve. In the first half of the year, PPI fell by 1.9% year-on-year. Among them, the June PPI decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month.
Among the year-on-year increase in PPI in June, the prices of means of production fell by 4.2% year-on-year, and the decline narrowed by 0.9 percentage points; the prices of means of living rose by 0.6% year-on-year, and the increase expanded by 0.1 percentage points.
In major industries, the price decline has narrowed. Among them, the prices of the oil and gas extraction industry fell by 39.1%, narrowing by 18.5 percentage points; the prices of oil, coal and other fuel processing industries fell by 21.6%, narrowing by 2.8 percentage points; the prices of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industries fell by 7.9%, closing 1.3% narrower; ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry prices fell 5.1%, narrowing 2.9 percentage points; non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry prices fell 2.2%, narrowing 2.2 percentage points. In addition, the prices of coal mining and washing industry decreased by 9.3%, and the decline increased by 0.5 percentage points.
According to estimates, in the 3.0% year-on-year drop in June, the tailing effect of price changes last year was about -0.2 percentage points, and the effect of new price increases was about -2.8 percentage points.
Guo Liyan said that as the resumption of production and production in the domestic industrial sector progressed smoothly, upstream raw material inventories accelerated digestion, and prices have already recovered. "In June, the price of petroleum mining rebounded sharply, and the prices of related petrochemical products rebounded to varying degrees, making the PPI total index growth rate also changed from negative to positive, with an increase of 0.4%, and the year-on-year decline began to narrow." Guo Liyan said .
Zhou Maohua, an analyst at the Everbright Bank's Financial Markets Department, said that the June PPI narrowed year-on-year, rising month-on-month and improving for two consecutive months, showing that domestic industrial sector prices have improved significantly. On the one hand, international commodity prices have improved. Since May, investors have revised their pessimistic expectations of the global economic outlook, driving commodity prices to improve. On the other hand, the resumption of industrial production in China has driven up the demand for industrial products. The vast majority of domestic economic activities have basically returned to normal, and continuous improvement in domestic demand has led to a recovery in the demand for industrial products.
The economy is expected to run smoothly throughout the year
Overall, the annual CPI and PPI will continue to be in a reasonable operating range, and there is no so-called inflation or deflation risk.
Guo Liyan analysis said that the support of food prices to CPI rises in the second half of the year will continue to slow down. As pork prices began to rise sharply in the second half of last year, the increase in the comparison base means that the increase in pork prices in the second half of this year will drop significantly year-on-year, thereby driving the CPI in the second half of the year Continue to fall steadily. Investment and consumer demand are expected to rise further in the second half of the year, and the volatility hubs of the prices of major bulk industrial products will all move upwards, thus providing strong support for PPI bottoming and stabilization.
"Consumer prices in the second half of the year have been declining moderately year-on-year." Zhou Maohua predicted that in the second half of the year, the overall domestic pork supply and demand gap will gradually narrow, and the overall rise in domestic hog prices in the summer has slowed down; in order to avoid sharp increases in pork prices, domestic It is appropriate to increase frozen pork prices to stabilize meat prices and to stabilize expectations during the holidays. Extreme weather may continue to disturb the production and transportation of vegetables. However, due to the overall favorable weather for vegetables in the second half of the year, domestic vegetable cultivation techniques and various localities have taken corresponding measures to ensure the deployment and supply of fruits and vegetables. The overall stability of the supply and demand of fruits and vegetables will still be guaranteed. Overall, CPI will continue a moderate slowdown.
Zhou Maohua said that from the perspective of PPI, as economic activities basically returned to normal, superimposed with domestic policy support, consumer and investor confidence continued to pick up, domestic demand was on a recovery and expansion track, and will be accelerated in the second half of the year. Global large-scale fiscal and monetary support policies help to promote a slight rise in the international commodity price hub, and drive the gradual improvement of my country's industrial producer prices.
"Prices will be at a low level in the second half of the year, and there will be no inflationary pressures. It is not the focus of economic operation. The low price level will not restrict macro policies, but will provide better room for macro regulation." Tang Jianwei said that in the second half of the year The focus of monetary policy is to innovate a monetary policy tool that directly reaches the real economy, and to target and support small, medium, and micro-enterprises that are hard hit by the epidemic. Faced with the pressure of business operations, measures to expand domestic demand need to be strengthened, with special emphasis on helping small and medium-sized enterprises to overcome difficulties.
Zhou Maohua suggested that in the second half of the year, it is necessary to prevent the accumulation of local foaming risks due to the de-realization of funds. Specifically, according to macroeconomic trends and market conditions, a variety of policy tools should be used flexibly to maintain reasonable and sufficient market liquidity, guide funds to flow into the real economy and invest in effective production areas, and promote a virtuous cycle of investment, consumption and employment.