5 data to understand China's economic potential series report ⑤
900 million labor force: from "demographic dividend" to "talent dividend"
Our reporter Lin Huocan
Labor is a precious resource and wealth. At the end of last year, my country’s working-age population aged 16 to 59 was 896.4 million, accounting for 64% of the total population.
The 900 million working-age population is a huge advantage and potential of China's economic development, which provides important support for the sustained and healthy development of the economy and society, and also provides a reliable guarantee for the continuous release of the "demographic dividend" and "talent dividend".
Large labor resource advantage
China has a labor force of 900 million. Without employment, it is only 900 million meals. With employment, it is 900 million pairs of hands that can create huge wealth.
"Regardless of the scale of supply or the quality of supply, 900 million labor is the advantage and potential of China's economic development." Guo Guannan, director of the Comprehensive Research Office of the Institute of Economic System and Management of the China Macroeconomic Research Institute, said that China's labor force ratio Most countries have a large population. my country is in a period of accelerated urbanization development. If the urbanization rate of the population increases by 1% per year, the transfer of rural surplus labor will continue for at least 20 years, which will provide abundant labor resources for the development of industrialization and service industries.
At present, the average years of education of the working-age population in my country has reached 10.5 years. According to the plan, by the end of this year, the average years of education of the main working-age population in my country will be increased to 11.2 years, and the average years of education of the newly added labor force will be increased to 13.5 years. "The multiplier effect of stable labor force and quality improvement is the most important advantage and potential of China's economic development." Guo Guannan said.
Zhou Maohua, a macro analyst at the Everbright Bank’s Financial Markets Department, said that labor is the source of wealth, abundant labor supply, coupled with the advantages of hard-working and efficient industrial workers, complete industrial chain, and continuous improvement of infrastructure, is a powerful guarantee for my country’s manufacturing industry to enhance its competitiveness. Among the 900 million labor force, 170 million have received education or skill training, and there are a large number of college graduates every year, which will lay a solid human resource foundation for high-quality development.
"In the future, China's labor advantage will gradually shift from a scale advantage to a labor force competitive advantage determined by the level of labor productivity." Li Xin, a professor at the School of Statistics of Beijing Normal University, said that the labor cost that affects the competitiveness of enterprises is determined not only by the scale of labor supply, but also by Labor productivity level. Since the reform and opening up, the development of my country's industrial chain and the division of labor have mutually promoted, and the level of labor productivity and production efficiency has been continuously improved, making my country the world's most complete manufacturing industry chain and the only country in the world with all industrial categories.
Li Xin said that 900 million labor force is the advantage and potential of China's economic development. However, my country's labor productivity level is significantly lower than that of developed countries such as the United States, and there is still much room for improvement. As the level of labor productivity rises steadily, it will provide guarantee for the sustainable growth of our economy.
Reasonably respond to the decrease in working age population
With the change of age structure, the number of working-age population and its proportion in the total population have continued to "double drop" since 2012. "We want to take a look at the phenomenon of the continuous decline in the number and proportion of working-age population. Compared with Western developed countries, the proportion of working-age population in China is still at a relatively high level; from the development experience of various countries, the decline in the proportion of working-age population is a specific stage of development An inevitable phenomenon." Guo Guannan said that in response to the reduction in the number of working-age population, efforts must be made to improve the quality of the labor force. It is necessary to improve the compulsory education system and increase the investment in vocational education around raising the average years of education of the working-age population and the average years of education of the newly added labor force.
"The improvement of the quality of the workforce is long-term and has its inherent scientific laws. It must fully draw on the experience and lessons of population development at home and abroad and plan a population policy that is suitable for my country's future long-term development." Guo Guannan said.
Li Xin said that the advantage of rich and low-cost labor resources is an indispensable factor for my country's economic take-off and rapid growth since the reform and opening up. However, the case of the “growth miracle” in Asia shows that the comparative advantage based on the massive use of cheap, low-skilled labor is a short-term boost to a country’s economic growth. The source of stronger and more sustainable growth comes from modern technology, human resource development and higher value-added production, that is, the continuous improvement of productivity levels. Therefore, continuously promoting the improvement of my country's labor productivity is the key to coping with the decline in the proportion of the working-age population and achieving sustainable economic growth.
Zhou Maohua also believes that the key to coping with the decline in the working-age population is to increase labor productivity and total factor productivity. We must continue to promote urbanization of the population, transfer more surplus labor from rural areas to cities, and improve labor productivity; through supply-side structural reforms, innovation should be the first driving force to lead high-quality development; training and education should be strengthened to improve labor skills . In addition, we can learn from the practices of developed countries and implement a flexible and flexible retirement system.
Education is the key to tapping the talent dividend
At present, with my country's working-age population shrinking slightly, the education level of the labor force is generally low, and the proportion of the elderly population has increased, increasing the burden on the working-age population. Continuously exerting the advantages of existing population resources, improving the quality of the population and working-age population, and realizing the transition from the "demographic dividend" to the "talent dividend" are important guarantees for achieving sustained, coordinated and healthy development of the population and the social economy.
Guo Guannan suggested that to realize the transition from "demographic dividend" to "talent dividend," education and training must be strengthened. Deepen the reform of the household registration system, accelerate the speed of urbanization of the rural population, and improve the quality of people-oriented urbanization. Further smooth the flow of labor and talents through social channels, create a fair employment environment, strengthen employment assistance, and fully stimulate the creative vitality of various talents.
Li Xuesong, director of the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that to better move from “demographics to dividends” to “talent to talents,” we must prioritize education, accelerate the modernization of education, and take care of children and school age. The pre-child education is placed in a more important position to continuously improve the quality of education at a higher level; we must make full use of the advantages of existing human resources, accelerate the construction of a market system that is conducive to the flow of human resources, reduce the mismatch between talents and positions, and release the potential of talents Create a stage; strive to build a good talent introduction mechanism, promote talent exchange and complement each other; deepen the reform of the scientific and technological system, allocate scientific and technological innovation resources scientifically, reasonably, and efficiently; let capital elements and talent elements better combine to create entrepreneurship for the majority of talent officers Provide financial support.
Li Xin said that the cultivation of talents is inseparable from the improvement of education level. There is a long-term balanced relationship between educational investment and technological progress, and technological progress can be regarded as an endogenous result of educational investment. At the same time, we must continuously improve the business environment, make full use of my country's huge market advantages, and actively introduce advanced technologies and talents to ensure the development of my country's industrial technology chain and global integration.
"As China enters the stage of high-quality development, releasing and tapping the talent dividend is the key." Zhou Maohua said that at present, there are still large gaps between China's higher education talents in the labor force and the general education years of the labor force. Further increase education and training to improve the overall skills of the labor force. It is necessary to improve the educational infrastructure, gradually eliminate the gap between urban and rural education, promote the equalization of public education services, and promote the development of a multi-level vocational education system. At the same time, it is necessary to improve the system of labor social mobility, reform the household registration system and the equalization of public service systems to allow labor to flow freely; improve social security, medical insurance and other systems to remove institutional obstacles that hinder labor mobility.
"The spatial agglomeration and effective organization of production factors can maximize labor productivity. With the surplus rural labor entering the town, due to the improvement of public infrastructure and services, combined with capital, market and other factors, you can optimize the allocation of factor resources and improve labor Productivity. Therefore, in the process of asking for dividends from talents, we must also accelerate the promotion of new urbanization centered on people." Zhou Maohua said.
(End of this series of reports)