- Hellowork, a company that references job offers on the Internet, publishes its barometer for the first half of 2020, which shows the evolution of offers before, during and after confinement.
- Since the end of confinement, the number of job offers has started to rise again, particularly in temporary work. But this development would only be due to the fall in supply during confinement and does not augur for the future labor market from September.
- According to Thomas Coutrot, member of the dismayed Economists, the shock of the crisis has not yet really produced its effects.
Who says economic shock, says shock for employment. And the coronavirus crisis is no exception. A few weeks after the end of confinement, Hellowork, a company that references employment, recruitment and training on the Internet, publishes its barometer of the evolution of job offers on permanent, fixed-term and interim in France on its platforms.
20 Minutes asked David Beaurepaire, deputy director of Hellowork, and Thomas Coutrot, member of the Terrified Economists, to decipher these trends.
Job vacancies are on the rise
To produce its barometer, Hellowork is based on an index 100, which is based on the 340,000 job offers (permanent, fixed-term and temporary) posted on its platforms between January 1, 2020 and June 30, 2020. And at look at the curves, no surprise: the number of offers has been increasing since the beginning of May and the end of containment. "There was a resumption of recruitments, but the real restart was in June," says David Beaurepaire. After March and April which saw, logically, the number of offers collapse (up to - 57 points), recruitments resumed to reach 90 points on average in June, almost the level of the beginning before the crisis. David Beaurepaire specifies: “We cannot yet conclude that things are back to normal, because there are recruitments and job creations which date from before confinement and which have simply been postponed. Remarkably, it was in the interim that the recovery was strongest in June, with an index of 131.
Not all sectors are in the same boat
For Thomas Coutrot, if the interim resumes so strongly, it is because he was most affected by the containment: “A sector like the hotel and catering industry has almost stopped everything. As the majority of jobs there are on fixed-term or temporary contracts and could not be renewed during confinement, they are only here to resume. The activity restarts where it was completely interrupted. "There were needs to cover to restart the sites and the production chain. The interim makes it possible to fill positions quickly, ”adds David Beaurepaire.
The two experts highlight other sectors that needed a rapid recovery: service companies (security and cleaning of companies), transport, logistics, the food industry and even the automobile, even if the latter sector is still idling. Highlight of the month of June, the resumption of tourism, large provider of temporary work and fixed-term contracts.
Others, however, are struggling to revive. Thomas Coutrot cites the electricity sector, commerce and the one that has been making a lot of noise lately, aeronautics.
"The effects of the shock are coming"
Are the encouraging curves in job vacancies a sign of economic recovery? Too early to say, according to David Beaurepaire. According to him, there is nothing in these figures to conclude that things are back to normal: “It is starting again better than expected and, if there is no new wave - of contamination -, we are entitled to hope that the trend continues. "However, he prefers to temper:" It is difficult to know whether it is a simple technical rebound or a lasting recovery. "
For Thomas Coutrot, these figures are misleading on the post-crisis employment situation: “This is a temporary phenomenon, we should see a decrease in offers at the start of the school year. And even probably from August. The effects of the shock are yet to come. "According to the economist, partial unemployment and seasonal jobs allow for the moment to cushion the effect of the crisis in the short term and the bulk of business activity is not about to return:" Everything will depend the recovery in investment and consumption. But confidence has not returned and the pandemic is not over. "
The only solution for Thomas Coutrot: to develop long-term public investment plans which would offer prospects for the reconversion of activities for businesses and workers: "For this, it would take several years of funding by the European Central Bank, for public spending or favorable borrowing with current interest rates. "
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- Unemployment
- Deconfinement
- Coronavirus
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