The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar once rose above the "7" mark
　　strong asset allocation demand promoted a stronger RMB exchange rate

　　Reporter Yao Jin from Beijing on July 7 reported: On the 7th, more offshore investors’ expectations of the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar rose in early trading, rising above the “7” mark and climbing to 6.9918, the highest in March this year. The highest value since the 18th. At the same time, the onshore RMB exchange rate appreciated by a maximum of 155 basis points to 7.0034 in early trading, which was also approaching the "7" integer mark.

　　On the same day, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar rose by 353 basis points from the previous trading day to 7.0310, rising to the highest since April 14, 2020, the largest increase since April 9, 2020.

　　Experts said that the continued improvement of domestic economic fundamentals is an important factor supporting the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate. The analysis report released by the Bank of China pointed out that the new coronary pneumonia epidemic has achieved major stage results in the war of resistance, and the resumption of production and production has been steadily advancing, and the overall economic and social recovery trend is improving. Fundamentals continued to improve, providing support for the stability of the RMB exchange rate.

　　Cao Yuanyuan, technical director of the research and development department of Dongfang Jincheng, said that the expansion of China's manufacturing PMI accelerated in June, and the speed of macroeconomic repair may exceed market expectations. Fundamental advantages support the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate.

　　CCB Investment Consulting Analyst Wang Quanyue said that the fundamentals of China’s long-term economic growth have not changed, and the International Monetary Fund recently predicted that China will become the only major economy with positive GDP growth this year.

　　In addition, the US dollar index is also one of the important factors affecting the RMB exchange rate trend. "Recently, the strength of the renminbi is mainly driven by the continued inflow of foreign capital and the weak dollar. In the past two days, the A-share market has strongly strengthened, pushing up the buying of the renminbi. At the same time, the weak shock of the US dollar index has also helped the renminbi to strengthen." Everbright Bank Finance Market analyst Zhou Maohua believes.

　　Zhao Qingming, an expert in international financial issues, also said that the strength of the US dollar index has a reverse relationship with non-US dollar currencies such as the RMB. When the dollar falls, non-dollar currencies strengthen, while the renminbi is the main non-dollar currency after the euro and yen.

　　"The recent outbreak of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic in the United States has seen a rise in the number of infections. Market expectations for the US economy have been revised down, and the US dollar index has weakened. At the same time, the interest rate differential between China and the United States continues to be high, and demand for RMB asset purchases is strong." Cao Yuanyuan said.

　　Bank of China chief researcher Zong Liang believes that under the circumstance of relatively low global economic conditions and unstable global capital and foreign trade, China’s monetary and fiscal policies are working together, and a steady increase in the RMB exchange rate is a high probability event.

　　Cao Yuanyuan said that in the short term, China's economic fundamentals are expected to continue to improve, which will consolidate the foundation for the stable operation of the RMB exchange rate. With the global central bank's easing tendency to deepen further and continue to test zero interest rates and negative interest rates, the interest rate differential between China and the United States will remain high in the future, which in turn will support the demand for RMB asset purchases, which will also provide important support for the RMB exchange rate.

　　"In the short term, the onshore RMB exchange rate still maintains a strong pattern." Zhou Maohua believes that the RMB exchange rate also does not have the basis for a substantial strengthening, and will maintain two-way fluctuations near the equilibrium level in the future, mainly due to the high uncertainty of the global economic outlook , Inevitably has an impact on the domestic economy, while the global demand for dollar hedging has not disappeared.