(Economic Observer) Chief economists expect China's exports to continue to improve in June
China News Agency, Beijing, July 8th (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) China's foreign trade data for the first half of the year were announced soon. Many chief economists predict that China's exports will continue to pick up in June, driving foreign trade to pick up further.
As major economies have restarted their economies, China's exports have recently become warmer. In renminbi terms, China's exports in May increased by 1.4% year-on-year, better than market expectations; the decline in exports from January to May has narrowed to 4.7% year-on-year. In terms of US dollars, May's export volume fell by 3.3% year-on-year, and fell by 7.7% in the first five months.
Lu Zheng, chief economist of Industrial Bank, believes that if there is no large-scale rebound in the epidemic, overseas demand will gradually recover in the future. The continuous improvement of external demand and the low base effect will drive China's export volume growth in June to rebound year-on-year. In terms of imports, global demand for transportation of resources such as iron ore, cement, and grains has risen, and China, as the world's major importer of bulk commodities, will also see an increase in import growth.
Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst of Huachuang Securities, also predicts that China's export recovery can be expected in the context of rapid overseas economic recovery. In US dollars, the year-on-year decline in Chinese exports in June will narrow to 0.2%.
Analysts believe that, taking into account several favorable factors, China's foreign trade is expected to improve further in the second half of the year.
One of the positives is that the gradual recovery of the global economy will drive external demand out of the trough.
In recent times, there have been positive signals that the global economy seems to be starting out of the most difficult times. In June, the US non-agricultural employment population increased by 4.8 million month-on-month, which was much higher than expected, and the unemployment rate fell to 11.1%; the final value of the PMI of the manufacturing industries in France and the UK both exceeded the 50 line, indicating that the manufacturing industry began to expand.
Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of New Era Securities, noted that as a typical export-oriented economy, South Korean exports showed a year-on-year increase of more than 20% in the first 10 days of June. In addition, as of June 18, the June Baltic Dry Cargo Price Index (BDI) has risen by 203% compared with May. These two phenomena indicate that the “dark moment” of global trade may be passing. Therefore, China's exports are expected to pick up in the second half of the year.
According to Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, China's exports will have three strong supports in the future: the export of anti-epidemic materials is still accelerating, which has a stimulating effect on the entire export; overseas economies are gradually restarting, and external demand is accelerating repair; the global industrial chain is in In the reshaping stage, China's economic recovery has an advantageous position in global competition, which will help boost exports.
Xing Ziqiang, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, also said that despite the significant impact of the epidemic on trade, China’s export share in the global market share continued to increase in the past three years, indicating that China’s global value chain The status is improving and exports are still relatively competitive compared to other countries. As the global economy gradually recovers in the second half of the year, China's exports may bottom out in the coming months.
The second advantage is that trade activities are accelerating the "unbonding".
Thailand has allowed business people and professional technicians from China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and other countries to enter China from July 1.
Japan's "Asahi Shimbun" reported that in order to resume business contacts, Japan decided to negotiate with China and South Korea this month to relax restrictions on entry and exit.
Twelve countries including China, Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand issued a joint statement a few days ago, arguing that they should avoid export controls or establish tariff and non-tariff barriers, and eliminate any existing trade restrictions imposed on necessities, especially medical supplies.
Many Chinese foreign trade companies are also optimistic about the positive export performance in the second half of the year. Zhuhai Kelitong Electric Co., Ltd. said that the company's newly signed orders from January to May increased by more than 20% over the same period last year, and it is expected that the annual export will achieve a growth of 20% to 30%. Wang Lixin, chairman of Darente Arts & Crafts Co., Ltd., said that now the company's orders are too large to "workers are too busy." (Finish)