DECRYPTION
A woman in place of another woman. This is what happens after Monday's reshuffle at the Ministry of Labor, where Elisabeth Borne succeeds Muriel Pénicaud. A change of name but also probably of style and especially of line. Because even if, in the mind of Emmanuel Macron, Muriel Pénicaud did not deserve, she had ended up embodying a little too well the first phase of the quinquennium, and less the necessary management of the economic and social shock caused by the coronavirus , the ministry's new priority.
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Muriel Pénicaud embodied the liberalization of the labor market ...
Let’s go back to the summer of 2017. Muriel Pénicaud had then led to the work orders. In less than three months, the Labor Code had been dusted off, the right to dismiss workers relaxed and social dialogue simplified in companies. The employers have dreamed of it for years, the former HRD of Danone did, taking the unions by surprise.
It was one of the main liberal sections of the presidential program. We had to make an impression, show investors that France knew how to transform itself. It was the beginning of the quinquennium. Then there was the reform of vocational training, then that of apprenticeship, with the same logic: to dust off and modernize the labor market.
Everything seemed to militate for Muriel Pénicaud to continue her lease on rue de Grenelle. But if her ministerial adventure stops, it is precisely because she ended up embodying this first phase of the quinquennium a little too much. However, today, the priority is no longer the modernization of the Labor Code but the management of the economic and social shock caused by the coronavirus crisis.
... Élisabeth Borne must take charge of the economic crisis
The fight, now, is played against the surge in unemployment. And for that, a new captain was needed. Muriel Pénicaud has taken the first steps towards this new approach with partial unemployment, which was deployed in mid-March to limit the number of layoffs. But we have reached the end of the system, which fears a tsunami of social plans. It is therefore Elisabeth Borne who will tackle it.
The latter will notably have to put the unemployment insurance reform underway very quickly, which will symbolize the change of course. This reform perfectly illustrated the conquering spirit of the "pre-crisis", by aiming to encourage job seekers to return more quickly to the work circuit and by tightening access to unemployment benefits. But the crisis went through there. Emmanuel Macron therefore decided to press the "pause" button. It's up to Élisabeth Borne to write the rest of the story. The unions are unanimous and demand the outright abandonment of this reform.
It is also the new Minister of Labor who will have to put the plan on track to encourage companies to hire and not leave new graduates on the shelf. Several hypotheses are on the table: a premium or a drop in load, we will have to decide very quickly. One thing is certain, Élisabeth Borne will occupy one of the most difficult positions in the coming months.