The Russian Ministry of Energy and the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) recommended that oil companies increase fuel sales on the exchange by 3% compared to the same period in 2019. This was reported by TASS with reference to the minutes of the meeting at the deputy head of the Ministry of Energy Pavel Sorokin.

According to the instruction, oil companies should increase gasoline and diesel sales at exchange trading to the level of not less than 11% and 7% of the production volume as soon as possible. According to RT analysts surveyed, such actions by companies will stabilize the situation in the fuel market.

Since the beginning of summer, the price of AI-95 gasoline at the St. Petersburg International Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange has grown by more than 13% and has updated its historical maximum several times. The peak value was reached on July 3, when the cost of one ton of fuel for the first time for the entire observation period rose to the level of 59.6 thousand rubles. Now quotes are slightly adjusted and are near 58.78 thousand rubles per ton.

According to experts, in the spring amid the introduction of a self-isolation regime, fuel consumption in Russia fell sharply, and energy companies reduced the production of petroleum products. After the abolition of quarantine restrictions, the demand for gasoline in the country rose sharply, but oil refineries (refineries) did not manage to increase production on time. As a result, a shortage temporarily formed in the market, and fuel prices began to rise.

“During the self-isolation regime, freight and passenger traffic decreased by 70–80%. As a result, enterprises reduced the production of petroleum products, and some refineries embarked on scheduled repairs. Therefore, after the removal of quarantine in the domestic market, a small deficit of fuel was formed. FAS and the Ministry of Energy, urging suppliers to increase sales, provide an opportunity for refineries to compensate for increased demand. As soon as there is more fuel, the prices on the exchange will go down, ”explained Artyom Deev, head of the AMarkets analytical department, in an interview with RT.

At the same time, at summer gas stations, the summer rise in price of fuel was insignificant in comparison with the exchange. According to the latest data from Rosstat, from June 1 to June 29, the average retail price of a liter of AI-92 in Russia increased by only 0.66% to 42.7 rubles, while the cost of AI-95 added 0.9% and amounted to 46.26 rubles per liter.

“Russian stock quotes have a limited impact on retail. The fuel on the exchange is acquired mainly by medium-sized gas station owners, whose market share is approximately 10%. Major retail sales are carried out by large vertically integrated oil companies with production, refining and their own gas station networks, ”said Mark Goikhman, TeleTrade's chief analyst, to RT.

Note that the rise in price of fuel in Russia began almost simultaneously with the restoration of oil prices after the spring collapse. So, since the end of April, a barrel of raw materials of the Russian grade Urals has more than doubled in price - from $ 20 to $ 43–44. However, according to analysts, the final fuel prices in Russia are more dependent not on oil prices, but on the level of tax burden on the business. About this RT told the expert of the Academy of Finance and Investment Management Gennady Nikolaev.

“In the cost of gasoline, oil accounts for only about 30%, while the rest is taxes. That is why domestic motorists almost did not feel any positive effect from a 70% drop in oil prices in early spring, ”Nikolaev explained.

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In general, RT analysts interviewed do not expect a significant increase in gasoline prices at Russian gas stations in the near future. According to Artyom Deyev, the rise in prices for gasoline and diesel fuel in Russia will be restrained by a special compensating mechanism - a damper.

Recall that after a sharp rise in fuel prices in 2018, the government agreed with oil companies to freeze wholesale prices. At the same time, it was unprofitable for oil companies to supply fuel to the Russian market at a fixed cost. Export prices significantly exceeded domestic prices, so it was more profitable for the business to sell oil products only abroad. As a result, from January 1, 2019, the state began to compensate companies with lost revenues from fuel supplies to the domestic market. 

If domestic fuel prices are higher than export prices, then oil companies pay part of the profit to the budget. At lower domestic prices, companies, on the contrary, receive compensation from the treasury. According to experts, such a mechanism allows avoiding serious jumps in fuel prices in retail.

“Under current conditions, in some regions, retail prices may still rise by 1-2 rubles per liter. However, in general, until the end of summer, the cost of gasoline will increase within inflation, ”said Vasily Karpunin, head of the BCS Broker information and analytical content department, in an interview with RT.