All the figures for a new estimate of French growth in the second quarter must be given Tuesday morning. But according to the Banque de France, the economic recovery is going "a little better" than expected.
"I am not saying at all that we are out of the woods, this is a very serious crisis," said Sunday on LCI his governor François Villeroy de Galhau. In addition, its effects on employment are staggered in time, so they are coming, but the recovery is going at least as well as we expected, and even a little better. "
"-10% over the year, maybe a little better"
After initially forecasting a rise in growth to “-12% at the end of June”, François Villeroy de Galhau estimated Sunday that “it will be better than that”, counting on a figure a little better than the -15% forecast on the second trimester.
Over the whole year, "the latest trends confirm our figure, it will be -10% or - we will make a revision in September - maybe a little better," concluded the governor.
Resumption in "bird wing"
He described a recovery curve "in a bird's wing", with first a "brutal plunge, we go back like a half-V at the beginning, but then, it will gradually flatten out because we will put more of time to return to the initial level, that of before March ". François Villeroy de Galhau expects a rate comparable to that known before the crisis "probably in 2022, at the start of the year or mid-year".
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