The proportion of global foreign exchange reserve assets rose to 2.02%, a record high-
　　RMB assets have gradually become a "safe haven"
　　Economic Daily · China Economic Net reporter Yao Jin

　　At present, the prevention and control of the new national pneumonia epidemic in China has been continuously consolidated, the production and life have been restored in an orderly manner, and the social economy has taken the lead in the global recovery. A series of favorable factors have contributed to the overall stability of the RMB exchange rate, the two-way floating elasticity has been improved, and the ability to respond to external shocks has increased. At the same time, the proportion of RMB in global foreign exchange reserve assets rose to 2.02% in the first quarter of this year, a record high. All these indicate that RMB assets are very attractive and are gradually becoming a "safe haven" for global assets.

　　According to the latest data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in the first quarter of this year, the proportion of RMB in global foreign exchange reserve assets rose to 2.02%, a record high. In this regard, industry experts said that the rising share of RMB in global foreign exchange reserves means that the international market is increasingly interested in RMB assets. The current RMB exchange rate has remained stable, and the domestic and foreign interest rates have remained high, which has brought considerable appeal. RMB assets are gradually becoming a "safe haven" for global assets.

The pace of internationalization continues to accelerate

　　According to IMF data, in the first quarter of this year, the central banks of various countries hoarded a large amount of US dollars after the outbreak of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic. Therefore, the proportion of US dollars in foreign exchange reserves reported to the IMF rose to 61.9%. At the same time, the share of the euro and the yen in foreign exchange reserves stabilized at 20% and 5.6%, respectively.

　　It is worth noting that the proportion of RMB in foreign exchange reserves hit a new high since the IMF reported this data in the fourth quarter of 2016, reaching 2.02%, higher than the Australian dollar 1.55% and the Canadian dollar 1.78%.

　　Analysts believe that the renminbi's share of the global central bank's foreign exchange reserve assets has increased, reflecting the increased interest in holding renminbi assets by the global foreign exchange reserve management agencies after the yuan was included in the IMF's SDR currency basket at the end of 2016. After this round of epidemic crisis, the share of the US dollar in the international reserve currency may further decline, which provides a major historical opportunity for the internationalization of the RMB.

　　It is understood that currently 149 countries and regions voluntarily report the composition of the official foreign exchange reserve currency to the IMF. The IMF has listed RMB assets separately in the official foreign exchange reserve currency composition quarterly survey since October 2016 to reflect the global RMB foreign exchange reserve holdings.

The RMB exchange rate is stable

　　In the first half of this year, the RMB exchange rate was generally stable, the two-way floating elasticity increased, and the ability to respond to external shocks continued to increase. Although the central parity of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar depreciated by 1.5% in the first half of the year, from an index perspective, the RMB appreciated against the CFETS currency basket index and the US dollar index by 0.6% and 1.0%, respectively.

　　"The stability of the renminbi is mainly supported by four factors: solid domestic fundamentals, a weak dollar, continued foreign investment inflows, and stable market expectations." Zhou Maohua, an analyst at the Everbright Bank's Financial Market Department, said.

　　First, the fundamentals have recovered steadily. At present, the domestic epidemic prevention and control achievements have been continuously consolidated, relevant support policies have been followed up in a timely manner, production and life have been restored in an orderly manner, and the social economy has taken the lead in the global recovery.

　　Second, the US dollar remains weak. As Europe and the United States have successively unblocked and resumed production, investors' expectations of the global economic recovery have eased the demand for dollar hedging. At the same time, the Fed's open quantitative easing policy will also limit the strength of the dollar.

　　At the same time, the balance of payments is stable. On the one hand, due to the control of the domestic epidemic and the first recovery of the economy, the low valuation of RMB assets continued to attract foreign capital inflows; on the other hand, despite the sharp contraction in global trade, China’s trade surplus reached US$121.3 billion in the first half of the year, and domestic foreign exchange reserves also stabilized at 3 trillion dollars.

　　In addition, market expectations are stable. Since the beginning of the year, the surplus of domestic bank valet exchange settlement has continued to expand. Bank valet sales and forward foreign exchange sales of bank valet declined significantly in April and May, which reflects to a certain extent that the company's expectations for RMB are relatively stable.

　　Li Liuyang, chief foreign exchange analyst at China Merchants Bank’s Financial Markets Department, believes that the renminbi’s steady rise is mainly due to the decisive strength of domestic epidemic prevention measures and the orderly arrangement for resumption of production and production. It is expected that the growth rate of exports will be obvious as global demand recovers With a rebound, capital projects will also benefit from increased opening up and a widening spread between China and the United States.

　　Cao Yuanyuan, Technical Director of Research and Development Department of Dongfang Jincheng, said that my country has introduced a series of economic stabilization measures to continue to help the recovery of the real economy, which provides a strong support for the stability of the RMB exchange rate. In addition, in the short-term, there is uncertainty about the restart of the US economy, and long-term low interest rates will restrict the upward movement of the US dollar index, and these factors also bring certain upward space for the RMB.

The second half is expected to remain basically stable

　　As the share of China's total economy in the world's economy further increases, RMB assets have become more popular. Industry experts generally believe that the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain basically stable in the second half of the year, and RMB assets will become a "safe haven" for global assets.

　　"The depression of RMB asset valuation and the relatively weak pattern of the US dollar will constitute a solid support for the RMB exchange rate." Zhou Maohua said that in the face of repeated epidemics and increased economic risks in economies such as Europe and the United States, the domestic economy is expected to lead the global recovery in the second half of the year .

　　From a policy perspective, compared with the "full firepower" of major European and American central banks, domestic policies as a whole continue to maintain a stable tone. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury spread between China and the United States is at a historically high level, and the overall domestic stock market valuation is low in the horizontal and vertical comparisons. Combined with the control of the domestic epidemic, the better economic prospects, and the accelerated pace of financial market opening, it will further attract Medium and long-term capital inflows continued.

　　From the perspective of the US dollar index, the Fed’s zero interest rate, open-ended quantitative easing and other factors will restrict the dollar’s ​​upward momentum, while the mid-to-long-term US fiscal deficit and debt problems, as well as the lack of disciplined fiscal and monetary policies will further weaken the long-term dollar credit.

　　Wang Youxin, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, believes that despite global easing and the implementation of negative and zero interest rates, China still has a rare positive income space, and as the attractiveness of RMB assets increases, cross-border capital inflows will continue to increase, which will Further support the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate.

　　Founder Securities Research believes that the volatility of the RMB exchange rate was mainly caused by the imbalance of international payments and the sharp rise in demand for the US dollar. The RMB exchange rate will remain stable under conditions such as weakened domestic epidemic interference and stable international payments.

　　"Whether it is effective domestic epidemic control and a stable economic environment, or the normalization of monetary policy superimposed on a higher level of domestic and foreign interest spreads, these factors will help overseas capital flow into the Chinese market." Xie Yaxuan, chief macro analyst of China Merchants Securities, said.

　　In addition, Huang Ka-shing, managing director of Jingshun Asset Management Company and head of fixed income in the Asia-Pacific region, said that the performance of China's national debt is more stable than that of other countries' assets, which will attract more emerging market funds and developed market funds to enter.