On Monday, July 6, the Russian currency shows mixed dynamics on the Moscow Exchange. At the beginning of trading, the dollar fell by 0.8% to 70.8 rubles, and the euro - by 0.4%, to 79.95 rubles. In the afternoon, the values began to grow - the dollar for the first time since May 22 rose to 72.1 rubles, and the euro reached 81.5 rubles - the highest level since May 4.
The official exchange rate of the Central Bank on July 7 was set at 71.34 rubles per dollar and 80.56 rubles per euro.
Experts interviewed by RT largely attributed a slight weakening of the national currency to a deterioration in sentiment in the global financial market. So, global investors fear the onset of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic and massively sell risky assets, including the ruble. According to Johns Hopkins University, since the beginning of summer, the number of cases of COVID-19 in the world has increased by more than 5 million and is currently approaching 11.5 million.
“Recently, in many countries the numbers on the number of infected people have started to grow again. Against this background, many authorities are beginning to return quarantine restrictions, which is causing concern among investors, ”said Anton Pokatovich, BCS Premier economist in an interview with RT.
“As a result of the next closure of borders, business activity in the world may again decline. Therefore, investors are losing interest in the currencies of emerging markets, including the ruble, ”the expert added.
According to him, a certain pressure on the Russian currency was also exacerbated by sanctions rhetoric. So, on July 2, Speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States Congress Nancy Pelosi called for restrictions against Russia, which was negatively perceived by investors.
Meanwhile, the observed depreciation of the ruble remains restrained against the backdrop of rising oil prices, said Valery Emelyanov, an analyst at Freedom Finance. On Monday, the cost of raw materials of the reference brand Brent on the ICE exchange in London grew by more than 2% - up to $ 43.7 per barrel.
“On average, since the beginning of summer, world prices for key oil grades have shown positive dynamics and have the potential for further growth. This will be facilitated by the expected extension or expansion of the terms of the transaction for a global reduction in OPEC + oil production. According to our forecasts, in the near future, the cost of a barrel of Brent may rise to $ 45, which will definitely lead to the strengthening of the ruble, ”Emelyanov emphasized.
Moreover, the ruble is still supported by the actions of the Bank of Russia, experts admit. Recall, in order to stabilize the exchange rate, on March 10, the regulator began proactive sale of foreign currency on the domestic market. Thus, the Central Bank artificially increases the demand for rubles. In total, during this time, the volume of currency sales amounted to 946.8 billion rubles.
In the near future, a positive effect on the ruble may also have an increase in demand for Russian federal loan bonds (OFZ). This point of view in an interview with RT was expressed by the head of the analytical department of AMarkets Artyom Deev.
“The Russian debt market remains attractive to investors. A decrease in the key rate by the Central Bank over time makes investments in OFZs less profitable. Therefore, investors are trying to pre-purchase securities at a bargain price. As a result, the inflow of money to OFZ supports the national currency, ”Deev explained.
In general, the experts interviewed by RT do not expect significant fluctuations in the Russian foreign exchange market in the near future. According to the head of the Alpari information and analytical center, Alexander Razuvaev, at present, the relative stability of the national currency is ensured by key macroeconomic indicators of the country. First of all, we are talking about a high volume of gold and foreign exchange reserves, as well as low levels of inflation and public debt, the analyst said.
“Against this background, until the end of the third quarter of 2020, we do not expect sharp jumps in the exchange rate of the Russian currency. During this time, the dollar exchange rate will be near the mark of 70 rubles, and the euro - at the level of 80 rubles, ”Razuvaev said in an interview with RT.
According to Valery Emelyanov, before the end of summer, the dynamics of the national currency will largely depend on the situation on the oil market. According to the expert’s forecast, if the price of raw materials remains in the range of $ 43–45 per barrel, the dollar exchange rate may gain a foothold at 71–73 rubles and the euro exchange rate near 80–82 rubles.