Investors "run" into the A-share bull market?
The Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3100 points in July, and over one million new investors poured in in May. The 10-year data shows that the "seven turnovers" of A shares accounted for only about half
"I am ready to increase positions, I feel that the stock market is going up all the time." A stock investor told the Beijing News reporter that in the first week of July, the brokerage stocks he had invested had brought him more than 10,000 gains.
With the Shanghai Composite Index standing at 3100 points, A-shares out of the "bull market pattern" has become the hottest topic. In fact, in July, the market became more bullish and new investors entered the market. Some investors believe that the bull market's horn was blown by brokerage stocks, and the A-shares have reached the annual "seven turn" moment.
In this regard, some analysts said that the resilience and independence of A-shares is expected to continue, but neither the bear market nor the bull market will enter the second half of the year.
What bullish signals are currently released?
The most obvious manifestation of individual investors' "final picking up money" is that the trading volume of A shares in the first week of July was significantly enlarged. Last week, the combined trading volume of the two cities exceeded one trillion yuan for two consecutive trading days. According to wind statistics, the total market value of A shares increased by nearly 3.8 trillion yuan in a week.
In terms of the two financings, as of July 2, the balance of A-share financing and securities lending was 1,190.315 billion yuan, an increase of 14.038 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and a single-day increase of more than 10 billion yuan for three consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of about 50 billion yuan.
In addition, northbound funds have also increased significantly, with a net inflow of 28.862 billion yuan within a week. According to statistics, since the beginning of this year, the net inflow of northbound funds has exceeded 140 billion yuan.
The "crazy" inflow of funds is at the same time investors joining and returning. The Beijing News reporter learned from a brokerage that the number of new investors has increased significantly since late June. “Now almost all online self-service accounts are opened, so the sales department is in good condition and there is no overcrowding of online legends. Situation." Liu Rui (pseudonym), a staff member of the business department of a securities firm, told reporters.
According to data released by China Settlement's official website, although the data for June has not yet been released, a large number of new investors have flooded the market in May. The number of newly added investor accounts in the month was 1.2141 million. Specifically, 1.125 million new natural person accounts were added, an increase of 5.34% year-on-year. As of the end of May 2020, the total number of investor accounts was 166 million, including 165.8 million natural persons and 393,500 non-natural persons.
In addition to new investors, some old investors are also eager to move. "How to unfreeze the zombie account" Liu Rui was asked in recent communication with many old customers, "Some old customers were confirmed as dormant accounts around 2017, just found that I want to reactivate it a few days ago, Play again."
Does "Seven Turns Over" make sense?
This “brush screen” in the bull market is, to a certain extent, people's expectation for the July A-share “ride the wind and waves”. Some analysts said that the bull market's horn has been blown by brokerage stocks, and the brokerage sector known as the "bull market engine" shined in the first trading week in July. According to wind statistics, the brokerage index rose by 17.85% in 5 trading days, ranking second in all sectors; since the beginning of the year, the brokerage index has increased by 15.29%. From the perspective of individual stocks, the wealth of the largest shareholder stockholders in securities stocks has risen by 73.82% since the beginning of the year, while Everbright Securities, CITIC Construction Investment and Guojin Securities have increased by more than 50% during the year.
Was it ever summed up as "five poor, six absolutely seven and seven turned over, gold nine and silver ten"?
The Beijing News reporter's statistics from July 2010 to July 2019 found that in fact, the index has accounted for about half of the rise and fall in the past 10 years. Among them, in the Shanghai index, in the past 10 years, the Shanghai index has risen 6 times in July and fell 4 times. July 2010 was the highest increase in July in the past 10 years, with an increase of 9.97%; in July 2015, the Shanghai stock index fell sharply by 14.34%, the highest decline in July in a decade.
In addition, in the Shenzhen Index, in the past 10 years, the Shenzhen Index has risen four times, with an increase of 14.90% in July 2010, the highest increase year; there have been six declines, and the decrease of 13.70% in July 2015 was within ten years. The biggest decline.
However, from the point of view of the stock transaction value, although the A-share transaction value in July did not become the highest peak of the year for most of the time, in the past 10 years, only July 2015 has decreased month-on-month. There was a rise to varying degrees last month.
Judging from the horizontal comparison, this year's A-share market has not yet seen the phenomenon of "five poverty and six extremes". After experiencing a sharp decline at the beginning of the year, the A-share market has gradually recovered since April. The performance of the A-share index is generally better than the major global indexes. As of the close of June 30, Beijing time, the GEM index rose 35.60% in the first half of the year, ranking first in the world's important indexes. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index ranked second with an increase of 14.97%, and the Nasdaq index rose 10.05 in the first half. % Ranks third, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 2.15% and ranks fourth.
A-share "recovery bull" is coming?
"In the bull market, we have always been bullish on the recovery bull," said Chen Guo, chief strategy analyst of Anxin Securities, who has been firmly optimistic about A shares since the first half of the year.
Analysts said that the current background is the proliferation of global liquidity and no obvious tightening in the near future. China's economic data continues to exceed expectations, and the market can expect the year-on-year growth rate of China's economy and corporate earnings to move toward high growth in the next year. This is A The "recovery bull" logic of stocks is also a comprehensive bull market logic. "Even if there is a full bull market, there is still a main line. We believe that the main line of A shares, technology and pharmaceutical consumption has not been fundamentally shaken. Unless the bull market is over, then there needs to be significant liquidity tightening or external extreme events."
The team of Kang Chongli, a strategic analyst of Yuekai Securities, looked to the market in July and believed that the resilience and independence of A shares are expected to continue. Under the escort of multiple policy dividends, it is expected to stabilize market expectations and ease the pressure on individual stocks to lift the ban in July.
In this regard, Pan Helin, executive dean of the Digital Economics Research Institute of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, told the Beijing News that the enthusiasm of stockholders is more driven by the market atmosphere, and the strength of general securities stocks indicates that the market has entered a round of upward trends. Brokers are most sensitive to the stock market cycle and tight funds and policies, so this enthusiasm is normal. He believes that the market has entered a stronger trend, mainly driven by funds, supplemented by economic entities. At this stage, there is ample liquidity in the market. On the one hand, because of the loose global currency, funds are more reflected in inflows. On the other hand, the domestic market has generally entered an upward phase of the cycle. Pork prices have also increased to a certain extent recently. The real economy cycle drives the stock market cycle to perform together.
Pan and Lin said that prices ultimately revolve around value. Although short-term prices are affected by sentiment, long-term prices will not deviate from value for too long. Therefore, companies and industries should be rationally analyzed for investment, rather than chasing up prices because of rising prices.
Beijing News reporter Zhang Siyuan