- In an interview with the regional daily press, Emmanuel Macron clearly warned: the start of the September school year will be “very hard” on the economic level.
- A speech that seems counterproductive in a period when the whole government called on the French to revive the economy by consuming.
- For economics professor Cécile Aubert, it is possible that the president is betting on a consumption in September by voluntarily darkening the table.
The sun is cracking on our skin, France is unconfined and the holidays are getting closer. We could almost have been happy, but since the interview with Emmanuel Macron in the daily newspapers of the regional press, we rather want to slip from the clusters of Xanax and sink into yet another confined depression. On the menu of the Head of State, a coming back "difficult" and "very hard" with heavy economic consequences.
Will this displayed pessimism have harmful consequences on the psychology of the French? Can we push the population to actively spend their savings while prophesying an economic crisis with major consequences for the return to school? For Cécile Aubert, professor of economics, specializing in microeconomics, theory of risk and incentives, the maneuver is actually more skillful and subtle than it is portrayed.
Speaking of a "difficult comeback" on the part of Emmanuel Macron, is it not a miscalculation that will undermine the morale of French people who are pushed "at the same time" to spend?
We do know that consumption is linked to the morale of households, and we can find paradoxical speeches as alarmist and bleak while the government evokes at the same time the need to boost consumption and spend its savings made during confinement. Nevertheless, it is possible that with this kind of speech, Emmanuel Macron is betting on a longer time. The more we expect and announce the disaster, the more we will have a positive vision of the events if they are less bad than expected, and therefore the more we consume at that time.
To warn of a catastrophic return to school may ultimately improve the morale of the French in a few months if September-October turns out to be less serious economically than expected. It is quite possible that Emmanuel Macron consciously made the choice to lower the morale of the French, and therefore consumption, during the summer to ensure better morale for households and the economy in September. For example in the United States, the unemployment figures are very bad, but they were less bad than what the experts had predicted, suddenly with the announcement of these figures which would have been perceived as catastrophic in any other context , the US stock market has run wild and jumped. Setting a very low morale slider means reserving the right to a good surprise.
Should we therefore bet on better consumption in September, even if it means lowering that of summer?
Summer consumption is very specific and focused only on certain sectors, it is indeed perhaps more advantageous to do everything to increase consumption rather at the start of the school year, a pivotal period in the country's economic situation.
And then, this summer is also crucial in terms of the circulation of the virus. Consumption that does not rebound, and therefore French people staying at home, is to avoid a new epidemic peak, which would be a health and economic disaster. Emmanuel Macron was able to bet on "sacrificing" summer consumption for a successful return to health and economics.
We have never seen such massive savings from such a large part of the population, so it is an unknown phenomenon and it is difficult to know how the French will behave. In previous pandemics, there was a rapid economic recovery, so we can think that the government is saying that consumption will go up, whatever the talk.
Is this alarmist speech ultimately a good strategy?
Politically, it's a very good choice to talk about it now. First, the first wave is still in everyone's memory, the French will therefore logically link an economic crisis as a consequence of the health crisis, which relieves Emmanuel Macron from being responsible. Because it is a global pandemic, difficult to see a French or presidential wrong.
Then, the negativity cursor is at the bottom, people were afraid for the health of their loved ones and theirs, lived 55 days locked up… Unemployment and the difficulties to come appear as a logical continuation, one more test, instead of an insurmountable challenge. It is also an opportunity to push through certain restrictive policies, raising the specter of unemployment. "Everything but not that", which would facilitate some difficult reforms, including those of pensions, but also the establishment of more flexibility in corporate contracts, which Emmanuel Macron calls for.
Finally, if the economic situation turns out to be as catastrophic as Emmanuel Macron's announcement and that he had said nothing about it in this interview, many would have criticized him for his silence and for not having warned. To announce the disaster is to give the impression of having controlled it a little.
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