suddenly! Pork prices rebound! A kilogram rose nearly 7 yuan, how to go next?
As of June 29, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market reached 45.45 yuan per kilogram. Just a month ago, on May 29, the national average pork price was 38.65 yuan per kilogram. Within a month, it rose 6.8 yuan, an increase of more than 17%.
Data graph: Consumers are buying pork. China News Service reporter Zhang Yunshe
At the same time, the slaughter price of live pigs has risen by more than 30%. In March and April, pork prices continued to fall. What happened to "Second Brother"? The reporter conducted an interview in Jiaxing.
Pork wholesale prices rebound 17% a month
Since the end of May, pork prices across the country have unconsciously come out of a market to stop falling and rebound. The reporter rushed to an agricultural product market in Jiaxing City, Zhejiang Province. Merchants told reporters that the purchase price of pork has been rising every day in the past month.
Pork merchants in Jiaxing said that the price increase has increased by more than half a month, and a kilogram has risen by more than ten yuan, which was originally more than 37 yuan per kilogram.
Another merchant also said that it basically rebounded to the price of October last year. At that time, the purchase price was 50 yuan per kilogram, and now it is 47 yuan per kilogram.
Merchants told reporters that the pork in the shop was divided from the white stripe pigs wholesaled in the wholesale market, and they would only earn a fixed processing fee. Due to the recent price increase every day, the number of customers who come to consume has obviously decreased, and only two or three white pigs can be sold all day, and the business is not as good as before. Some merchants said that now the pork sold has been reduced by more than half.
Some consumers in Jiaxing City also said that before buying meat, it was 12 yuan per catty last year, and now it is 25 yuan per catty, which is up by half.
The reporter learned that due to the influence of African swine fever, the current domestic pig deployment range is generally within 300 kilometers, so pork prices are greatly affected by geography, and the retail price of pork in many regions may increase by nearly 30%.
Xinyan Futures Agricultural Products Analyst Chen Yanjie: The rebound in pork prices started from the north and spread to the south. There may be a relatively large range in some areas, and some areas will be relatively mild.
Judging from the average retail price of pork in 36 cities, it has risen from 27 yuan per catty at the end of May to the most recent 28-29 yuan per catty.
Pig farmers can earn 2000 yuan per pig
The slaughtering enterprise slaughtered a pig for 2 yuan
The increase in pork prices is mainly due to the increase in the price of live pigs. In just one month, the price of domestic live pigs increased by 30%. At present, the price of live pigs in 26 provinces and cities across the country is above 34 yuan per kilogram, with the highest even rising to 39 yuan per kilogram. What is the reason for the sharp rebound in pig prices this time? What do farmers think about the current market?
Cao Wei is a pig farmer in Jiaxing City, Zhejiang Province. He has been in the pig industry for more than 20 years and now has a total of 5,000 pigs. The annual slaughter is about 6,000, and the number of sows can be reproduced. At 480 heads.
Compared with last year, both the number of stocks and the number of sows that can be propagated have been reduced. This is mainly to prevent and control African swine fever and reduce the breeding density.
Cao Wei told reporters that the current comprehensive cost of raising pigs such as feed, water and electricity is 10 yuan per catty, and the recent price of the slaughterhouse was 17 yuan per catty. The profit is very considerable.
In addition, because the pig farm is now closed and it is difficult to supplement the pens, the farmer will raise the piglets for 9 months and sell them at 300 pounds, and each pig can earn 2,000 yuan.
Cao Wei said that the selling price in March this year was about 19-20 yuan per catty, and returned to about 13 yuan per catty from the end of April to the beginning of May. Now it has increased to 17,18 yuan per catty. From 13 yuan per catty to 17,18 yuan, it took about less than a month.
Chen Yanjie, an agricultural analyst at Xinhu Futures, said that the most fundamental reason for the rebound is the relatively scarce supply of domestic pigs. This price increase is also the first to start the price of pigs. In addition, the price of pork has dropped a lot in the previous period, which has led to the phenomenon that farmers have not sold the barn in some areas.
Although the pig industry is under good conditions, the gross profit of the downstream slaughtering plants has dropped significantly. In June 2020, the profit value of hog self-reproduction and self-breeding was 2010.33 yuan/head, a year-on-year increase of 471.33%. However, the average gross profit of downstream pig slaughtering enterprises was -2.87 yuan/head, a decrease of 48.93 yuan compared with the same period of last year, and the loss of fresh slaughtering was serious.
Industry insiders told reporters that this is because the slaughterhouse has a long-term fixed customer, and the daily slaughter volume is relatively fixed. Therefore, in the case of shortage of live pigs, the pigs have to be collected at a high price.
Zhuo Chuang Information's pig industry analyst Wang Yanan: The price of pigs has risen, and the cost of acquiring pigs for slaughtering companies has increased. After the cost increases, pork prices follow up.
However, it is currently in the off-season of pork consumption, coupled with high meat prices, it is difficult to inspire consumers' enthusiasm for purchasing pork, so the slaughtering companies are not ideal for fresh goods. Fresh pork is sold poorly. When the price of meat is high, the risk of loss increases.
Expert: Pork prices will fall after a slight increase in the future
Next, will the price of pork continue to rise? What is the trend of pork prices in the medium and long term?
In a meat processing plant in Jiaxing City, Zhejiang Province, the reporter saw a batch of Baitiao pigs that had just arrived in the morning and were being processed. The staff told reporters that the factory process uses an order system, and the number of orders has increased significantly recently. The daily processing volume has exceeded the level of the same period last year.
Cao Guohua, director of the product center of Huateng Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd., said that due to the resumption of production and production, the volume is larger than before, from the original more than 30 heads to the current more than 60 heads, and the highest will reach 100 heads. The volume in June last year was 40. Around 50 heads.
The reporter learned that this company covers sow breeding, breeding and cutting. At present, there are more than 19,000 live pigs.
Due to the influence of African swine fever last year, the pig farms began to be completely closed, and it is difficult to achieve supplementary pens. In addition, from the birth of the piglet, it takes more than 8 months to be released, so the number of pigs in the enterprise has not changed much. Now that the hog breeding is very profitable, the company plans to build two new pig farms to increase production capacity.
Industry insiders told reporters that although all pig farms across the country are increasing their stocks, due to the influence of African swine fever, pig farms dare not buy capable sows or piglets, and most of them adopt self-breeding and self-breeding models. The cycle from sow pregnancy to litter and slaughter pigs is generally about 14 months, so the shortage of live pigs is difficult to alleviate in the short term.
In 2019, under the influence of African swine fever, the number of capable sows in the country fell sharply. Although the number of capable sows has increased continuously since October 2019. However, as of March this year, the number of breeding sows in our country has dropped by 20% year-on-year.
According to Wang Yanan, a pig industry analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, the supply of pigs in July is still tight, and the price of pigs may increase slightly. From August to November, the effect of the resumption of pig production by breeding enterprises will gradually appear, the supply of pigs will gradually increase, and the price of pigs may decline. Affected by this, pork prices may rise slightly before retreating.