Will Israel annex part of the West Bank?

Text by: Guilhem Delteil Follow

As of this Wednesday, July 1, Benyamin Netanyahu can work to implement one of his campaign promises: the annexation of part of the West Bank, the Palestinian territory occupied by Israel since 1967. This promise of annexation arouses much concern on the international scene and is strongly denounced by the Palestinians.

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From our correspondent in Jerusalem, 

During the presentation of the "plan of the century" in a living room of the White House on January 28, a card marked the spirits: the American administration has redrawn the borders between Israel and the Palestinian territories. The plan to end a more than 70-year-old conflict gives Israel a significant portion of the territory east of the green line, marking the boundary between the country's internationally recognized borders and the territories it occupied since 1967. According to the plan, the Jordan Valley, the shores of the Dead Sea and the various Israeli colonies would thus be placed under Israeli sovereignty. 

"Sovereignty" is the keyword for the Israeli government. Benyamin Netanyahu never mentions an "annexation"; promises to "  apply Israeli sovereignty  " to certain areas of the West Bank. In international law, an annexation involves the taking of control of a territory over which another State has legitimate territorial claims. A reading disputed by the supporters of this development.

"Disputed areas"

According to the Israeli government, the areas which would be concerned by an annexation are located in zone C according to the Oslo agreements. This is the area over which Israel has retained full control. According to the peace agreements signed by Israelis and Palestinians, it was to come under Palestinian control after an interim period, still in progress 27 years later. But the future of the military zones and the colonies was to be the subject of future negotiations. And for the Israeli government, this qualifies the areas it could annex as "disputed" and not "Palestinian". 

The Israeli right also rejects any other legitimate land claim. “  The other contenders are Jordan, which has renounced its claims, and which has never really pushed them elsewhere since it had acquired this land illegally by a war of aggression. And Palestinians who do not meet the criteria of a state under international law  , "said judge Avi Bell, professor of law at Bar Ilan University in Tel Aviv and associate researcher at the Kohelet Forum, a right-wing think tank. “  In international law, not being a state, they have no territorial sovereignty.  »Palestine was recognized as a state by the UN General Assembly in 2012but this quality is disputed by Israel. The International Criminal Court is expected to settle this debate soon.

"Violation of the most serious of international law"

But this Israeli vision is not shared on the international scene. With the exception of the United States, the condemnation is fairly unanimous. On June 22, the Palestinian Authority organized a large rally against this Israeli project in Jericho. Rare fact: representatives of nearly 50 countries and international organizations were present at this political rally. Several of them went on stage to publicly denounce this displayed desire for annexation. 

In recent weeks, the Secretary General of the United Nations has thus evoked a "  most serious violation of international law  " in the event of annexation. "  If we entirely remove the idea that, through negotiations and dialogue, peace can be achieved, it seems to me that we are killing the very spirit of the peace process and placing everyone in a situation difficult. A position in which unilateral action will become the rule, in which the use of force will prevail over dialogue  ”, judges for his part the UN special coordinator for the peace process in the Middle East, Nikolay Mladenov.

Two to dance tango

The head of the European diplomacy, Josep Borell, affirms to him to use "  all the diplomatic capacities of the Union  " to prevent this annexation, warning that it will have "  significant consequences  " on the links between Israel and the Twenty-Seven, first commercial partner of the country. Jordan and the United Arab Emirates have also stepped up warnings to Israel. And Nikolay Mladenov, the United Nations special coordinator for the peace process, warns of the consequences of such a decision.

Palestinian officials also strongly denounce this project of Benjamin Netanyahu. Even before the campaign promise was made, Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, announced the suspension of all cooperation with Israel. "  It takes two to tango,  " said Prime Minister Mohamed Shtayyeh, saying that the threat of annexation of part of the West Bank is pushing Israel outside the Oslo Accords. "  This peace process has reached a dead end and I think the situation is irreversible,  " said the head of government. 

Divergence of strategy

For a revival of the peace process, "  there must be a real paradigm shift: we must move from bilateralism to multilateralism,  " he warns. The Palestinian leadership no longer wants a peace process sponsored by the United States alone but wants to place it under the aegis of the Quartet which brings together, alongside Washington, the UN, the European Union and Russia. But Palestinian leaders are divided on the response to a possible annexation.

In early June, Mohamed Shtayyeh campaigned for the affirmation of the Palestinian Authority's state identity. “  This Authority cannot remain an authority without authority. There will be a founding council, a constitutional declaration and a call to the international community to recognize us. We have to wake up and face this moment of truth,  ”he said. Conversely, last Wednesday, addressing the Arab Parliament, the legislative body of the Arab League, Mahmoud Abbas affirmed that an annexation would oblige Israel to "  assume its responsibilities in the occupied territories in accordance with the fourth Geneva Convention  ", leaving threaten the dissolution of the Palestinian Authority.

For the moment, Benyamin Netanyahu lacks the necessary support to carry out his annexation project. Starting with that of the United States: the Trump administration has not currently validated its plans. In the "plan of the century", annexation had to go hand in hand with Israeli compromises to relaunch the peace process and the author of this plan, Jared Kushner , is holding back today in the face of a unilateral annexation, on the other hand desired by the Ambassador to Israel David Friedman. The fracture lines are felt within the American administration. And four months from a complicated presidential election for Donald Trump, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not one of his priorities.

Annexation vs coronavirus

But Benjamin Netanyahu also faces internal political obstacles. The Israeli Prime Minister has so far disclosed nothing about his plans for the annexation. Will he first want to annex the Jordan Valley, the large colonies or on the contrary the smallest and isolated? While the vagueness remains, the oppositions have already manifested themselves. Several anti-annexation rallies, organized by the left of the political spectrum, have taken place.

But even among the most right-wing electorate, reluctance is heard. "  I sincerely appreciate Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump, but I think that the current plan, without change, is more dangerous than an opportunity,  " judges Israel Ganz, the president of the Regional Council of Benyamin, regrouping several colonies. central and northern West Bank. Like other settler representatives, he rejects the creation of a Palestinian state defended by the Trump plan and wants to ensure that the roads serving the settlements will remain under Israeli control. "  My mission is to achieve a wider application of Israeli sovereignty,  " he said.

But the difficulties of Benjamin Netanyahu begin even within his government. Its Defense Minister and Alternate Prime Minister Benny Gantz says he supports the Trump plan as a whole. Any annexation must be done, judges the coalition partner of Benjamin Netanyahu, with the support of the United States and in concert with international partners, notably regional, of Israel. However, Jordan multiplies the warnings against this annexation.

Benny Gantz also believes that the priority is the health and economic crisis. "  Everything unrelated to the coronavirus crisis will wait until after the coronavirus,  " he said on Monday. Benny Gantz's opposition does not legally prevent Benyamin Netanyahu from advancing his annexation project but complicates his quest for a majority. After meeting with Avi Berkowitz, the US emissary for the Middle East, on Tuesday, Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged that the "  question of sovereignty  " still required consultations. "  We will continue to work on it in the coming days,  " he said, hinting that no major announcements would take place this July 1.

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