China News Agency, Shanghai, July 1 (Reporter Jiang Yu) The famous rating agency Moody's issued a report on the 1st, which lowered the 2020 growth forecast for some countries, but the agency still expects the global economy to gradually recover from the second half of this year.
Moody's stated that the impact of the new coronary pneumonia embargo on global economic activity in the second quarter will exceed previous expectations. Recent data reflects the extent to which the global economy was affected by the epidemic in the first two quarters of this year. The worst quarter since the Second World War, "so we lowered the 2020 growth forecasts for Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, Canada, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Argentina."
However, Moody's still expects the economy to gradually recover from the second half of this year, but the final result depends on whether governments can restart the economy while protecting public health, and the rebound in demand will determine the ability of businesses and labor markets to recover from shocks .
Moody's analysis shows that the difference in the scale and composition of policy support will make the recovery process of various countries different. The effectiveness of policy support depends not only on the scale of the package of support measures, but also on the type of support provided and the use of liquidity measures. Direct support for corporate expenditures and grace measures are designed to prevent their permanent shutdown, while other forms of measures such as capital injection and credit guarantees partially eliminate planning uncertainties for businesses.
Moody's believes that if a new round of outbreaks occurs and is difficult to control, the government will once again take a large-scale shutdown measures, global financial risks will increase. (Finish)