(Mid-year economic observation) In June, how will the second half of China's A shares go?
China News Agency, Beijing, June 30 (Reporter Chen Kangliang) China A shares closed on the last trading day of June. Looking back at the first half of the year, despite the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic at the beginning of the year, the overall performance of China's A-shares is remarkable. Not only have there been many heavy reforms in the system design, but also a rare structural market performance, The Growth Enterprise Market Index outperforms the major global stock indexes.
In the first half of this year, except for the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell slightly by 2.15%, the remaining major stock indexes of A-shares all rose sharply. According to the data of financial data service provider Flush Flush, as of 15:00 on the 30th of Beijing time, the cumulative increase of the Shenzhen Stock Index in the first half of the year was 14.97%, while the small and medium board index rose by 20.85%, and the GEM index rose by as much as 35.6%, far better than The performance of other major global stock indexes.
In terms of U.S. stocks, the Dow Jones index has fallen more than 10% in the first half of the year; the Nasdaq has risen about 10%, the U.S. stock S&P 500 index has fallen more than 5%; in Europe, the FTSE 100 index has fallen more than 17% over the same period, and France The cumulative decline of the CAC40 index is about 17%, the cumulative decline of the German DAX30 index is more than 7%; in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell more than 5% over the same period, and the Korean composite index fell more than 4%.
Shen Zhengyang, an analyst at Northeast Securities, said that the overall performance of A-shares in the first half of this year was "steady and improved" relative to the surge in overseas stock markets. On the one hand, it is because of the strong control of the epidemic in China, and the economy is steadily resuming production; on the other hand, it is also because of the low overall valuation of A shares and the assistance of reforms such as the GEM pilot registration system, which has promoted the stable operation of the market and even spawned certain Structural quotes.
In terms of specific sectors, in the first half of this year, the semiconductor, pharmaceutical, and biotechnology sectors led the way, rising by more than 43% and 40%, respectively. In this context, some funds that seize investment opportunities in industries such as medicine and technology have made a lot of money. According to data from Wind, as of June 24, there were 85 active equity funds this year with a return of more than 50% and a maximum return of more than 73%. The investment direction of these funds is directed to the pharmaceutical and other industries in the first half of the year. .
Looking back at the Chinese stock market in the first half of the year, in addition to the structural market, reform is also an important keyword. From the implementation of the new securities law, to the "coming out" of the GEM registration system rules, to the revision of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index compilation plan... various heavy reforms have been implemented one after another.
Taking the high-profile GEM registration system pilot as an example, Professor Tian Xuan of Tsinghua University said that the registration system actually gave the decision-making power of listed companies to the stock market to the market, which could unblock the "barrier" of IPO (Initial Public Offering) lake". At the same time, a more flexible delisting system can also unblock capital market exports and make the flow of water in the asset pool smoother. With the implementation of the registration system, the value of shell resources of listed companies will disappear, and inferior companies will accelerate their delisting, which will help promote the healthy development of China's capital market in the future.
In response to the trend in the second half of the year, the chief economist of the Great Wall Fund told Weida that the current economic recovery in China is better than market expectations and significantly better than in Europe and the United States. In the short term, the current and future period of loose liquidity will not change. The trend of China's economic recovery is confirmed, and the current valuation of A shares is at a historically low position. In the medium and long term, as long as China persists in reform and opening up, and insists on technological innovation and industrial upgrading, the outlook for A shares is optimistic.
Weida also reminded that the structure of A-shares has been clearly divided recently, and it is recommended to focus on new technology, semiconductor, high-end manufacturing and other related technology stocks in the second half of the year. Since the relevant rules of the GEM registration system have been formally introduced, and the capacity of the GEM is relatively large, it is expected that the GEM will become more active in the future.
Some foreign institutions are also optimistic about A shares. Wang Ying, a Chinese market strategist at Morgan Stanley, said recently that in the next 6 to 12 months, global investors are advised to increase their holdings of A shares. China's economic recovery is very worth looking forward to. At present, the proportion of foreign shares held in the A-share market is still low, and the price is also at a good point. In March this year, Morgan Stanley has upgraded the rating of the Chinese stock market to "overweight" in emerging markets around the world. It is expected that the Chinese stock market will significantly outperform emerging markets in the next 12 months.
However, some analysts are cautious. Researcher Zhu Xiaowei of China Merchants Bank Research Institute suggested that the second half of the year focus on the possible impact of external market disturbances on A shares. Zhu Xiaowei pointed out that the external environment will be a long-term disturbance for A-shares. If future U.S. stocks fail to meet expectations, the unemployment rate will surge, listed companies’ earnings will deteriorate, and leverage will be significantly retreated. Or it will be transmitted to A shares, that is, A shares have a high probability of "following bears", but it is expected to be more resilient than US stocks. (Finish)