(Mid-Year Economic Observation) Increasing the intensity of "more active" China's fiscal policy is working hard
China News Agency, Beijing, June 28 (Reporter Zhao Jianhua) Half of 2020 will soon pass, and the global epidemic has not yet ended. As a result of the impact of the hedging epidemic, China is implementing a “more active and proactive” fiscal policy: continue to reduce taxes and fees, increase the deficit rate appropriately, increase government investment, increase transfer payments by the central government, support residents’ employment, protect market players and guarantee Basic people's livelihood and grassroots operation.
Summarizing the central and local budgets, the national general public budget revenue this year was 1802.7 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), a decrease of 5.3%. The national general public budget expenditure was 247.585 billion yuan, an increase of 3.8%. Wang Zecai, director and researcher of the Government Performance Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, said that from the perspective of expenditure scale, the proactive fiscal policy has been unprecedented, and it has also fully considered the uncertainties that may exist in the second half of the year.
According to data released by the Ministry of Finance of the People's Republic of China recently, the national fiscal revenue fell by 3.9%, 21.4%, 26.1%, 15%, and 10% in each month from January to May, showing a continued rebound in April and May after a sharp decline in revenue in the first quarter. Towards a good situation. Promoting the resumption of production and production and helping enterprises to relieve the rescue have shown positive results. The decline in fiscal revenue has narrowed for two consecutive months, showing a continued positive trend.
The tax decline, which accounts for the bulk of fiscal revenue, narrowed. In May, the value-added tax for industry and commerce dropped by 33.5% from January to April, and remained basically the same as the same period last year. Domestic consumption tax, value-added tax consumption tax on imported goods, corporate income tax and other tax revenues have narrowed in May. Personal income tax increased by 0.7%. According to Wang Zecai's analysis, from the analysis of the resumption of production and the resumption of business in the first five months of this year, the resumption rate of industry, transportation, and service industries has continued to improve. There should be no suspense in the completion of the expected target of the general public budget revenue across the country.
The "more active and promising" proactive fiscal policy is working hard. As of June 15th, new special bonds issued across the country amounted to 2,193.6 billion yuan, and the scale of issuance increased by 12,313 billion yuan year-on-year. 29 provinces including Beijing have completed the issuance of all new special bond quota issuance in advance. The bond funds are all used for the construction of major infrastructure projects, giving priority to guaranteeing projects under construction and avoiding half-pull projects.
Data from the State Administration of Taxation show that from January to April, the country has accumulatively reduced taxes and fees by 906.6 billion yuan. Among them, this year's introduction of preferential policies to support epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development tax incentives and taxes reduced taxes and fees by 485.7 billion yuan.
Wang Zecai said that the effect of tax cuts and fee reduction policies is becoming increasingly apparent, which will inevitably affect the short-term fiscal revenue shortfall. At the same time, to prevent and control the epidemic situation, protect the employment of residents, protect the market players, and protect the basic livelihood, etc., we must further increase fiscal expenditures. For the central and western regions and the hardest hit areas, it is expected that the fiscal balance will be further intensified throughout the year.
This year's deficit rate has risen to more than 3.6%, tax cuts and fees for market players will exceed 2.5 trillion yuan throughout the year, 1 trillion yuan of special anti-epidemic government bonds will be issued, and local governments will arrange 3.75 trillion yuan of new special bonds. This year, the national fiscal deficit and government bond funds reached 8.51 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.6 trillion yuan over the previous year. Wang Zecai believes that such a large increase in the scale of government bonds is a special arrangement under the current situation, and it also reserves a larger policy space for responding to the impact of the epidemic. But whether it can meet the actual needs depends on the development situation of the epidemic situation, the state of economic recovery and the completion of the staged goals.
The current epidemic situation is still uncertain, and the international economic situation is also very complicated. Qiao Baoyun, dean of the China Academy of Public Finance and Policy, Central University of Finance and Economics, analyzed that this year's fiscal revenue and expenditure are facing unprecedented challenges. The timely financial support and precise positioning have played a key role in hedging the epidemic situation and the "six guarantees". But the finances cannot "save the world."
Qiao Baoyun said that in addition to responding to current problems, a proactive fiscal policy should also form a fiscal ecology of better government governance and economic development, as the foundation of national governance, and promote other governance tools to play a better role. For example, promote the market-oriented allocation reform of elements, form a more competitive market mechanism, and form a more dynamic government governance and economic development ecology. (Finish)