China News Service Client, Beijing, June 28 (Zhang Xu) After domestic oil prices have not been adjusted for six consecutive times due to the triggering of the "floor price" mechanism, the 28th ushered in an increase, which is also the first increase in 2020. Starting tomorrow, a private car with a 50-litre fuel tank will cost about 4.5 yuan more when filled with a box of oil.
A new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on June 28. According to the National Development and Reform Commission, the increase in this round is 120 yuan/ton for gasoline and 110 yuan/ton for diesel. A number of agencies have estimated that the equivalent of No. 89 gasoline rose 0.09 yuan/liter, No. 92 gasoline rose 0.09 yuan/liter, No. 95 gasoline rose 0.10 yuan/liter, and No. 0 diesel rose 0.09 yuan/liter.
Overview of previous price adjustments of domestic refined oil in 2019-2020. Data from Longzhong Information
A private car filled with a box of oil costs about 4.5 yuan
According to Xu Wenwen, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, after the price adjustment, the cumulative decline in gasoline this year was 1,730 yuan/ton, and the decline in diesel was 1,670 yuan/ton.
Based on the calculation of an ordinary private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, after the price adjustment, car owners will spend about 4.5 yuan more on filling a box of oil; models with a fuel consumption of 7-8 liters per 100 kilometers in the urban area will increase the average cost per 1,000 kilometers. Around 6.3-7.2 yuan. For large-scale logistics transportation vehicles with a full load of 50 tons, the fuel cost increases by about RMB 36 for every 1,000 kilometers.
"After this round of price adjustments, the price of automotive diesel in most areas of the country is around 5.59-5.69 yuan/liter, and the retail price of No. 92 gasoline is between 5.49-5.59 yuan/liter. The price adjustment will increase the cost of fuel for private car owners slightly." Xu Wenwen said.
Why did domestic oil prices rise after six strandings?
The reporter found out that since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have experienced 11 price adjustment windows, of which 8 have been stranded and 3 have been lowered. Starting from the price adjustment window on March 31 at 24:00, domestic refined oil prices have been 6 consecutive times due to the international market Crude oil prices were stranded below $40 per barrel.
According to the "Petroleum Price Management Measures" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission on January 13, 2016, "when the crude oil price in the international market is lower than US$40 per barrel (inclusive), the refined oil is calculated at the crude oil price of US$40 per barrel and the normal processing profit margin. Price." US$40 per barrel is the so-called "floor price".
2019-2020 international crude oil futures price charts. Data from Longzhong Information
Since the beginning of the year, due to the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic and the oil price war, international oil prices have continued to slump. Recently, OPEC+ production cuts have been at a steady pace, the number of US drilling has fallen to a new low, demand recovery has been stronger than expected, and international crude oil prices have risen all the way. Since May, international oil prices have risen for 6 consecutive weeks. After a brief fall in mid-June, WTI crude oil futures and Brent crude oil futures rose 9% again last week.
With the implementation of the domestic oil price increase for the first time this year, the domestic product oil price adjustment will show a pattern of "one rise, three falls and eight stranding" in 2020. The next price adjustment window for domestic refined oil will open at 24:00 on July 10.
Will oil prices continue to rise?
Jin Pengchuang refined oil analyst Xu Peng believes that international crude oil still has good expectations in the later period, and retail prices are expected to continue to rise. However, due to the large probability of international crude oil showing a turbulent and small upward trend, the room for gasoline and diesel retail price increases is also limited.
On June 8, OPEC+ announced that the agreement to reduce daily output of 9.7 million barrels will be extended by one month to the end of July to support the further recovery of the oil market; oil-producing countries that have not fully fulfilled their contracts will carry out compensatory production cuts. On June 15, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its monthly estimate that the shale oil production in the seven major US shale oil production bases is expected to decrease by about 93,000 barrels/day to 7.634 million barrels/day. In June, it decreased by 213,000 barrels per day.
Commerzbank pointed out that on the one hand, OPEC+'s production reduction discipline is good, superimposed on the large-scale involuntary production reduction in the United States (supply tightening); on the other hand, the demand for crude oil has recovered rapidly; two factors have made the oil market's excess supply significantly ease , Its speed is faster than expected.
Information figure: The vehicle is refueling at the gas station. Zhang Yunshe
Long Zhong Information analyst Li Yan is also optimistic about the trend of oil prices. "Recently, OPEC+ joint production cuts are progressing smoothly, while fuel demand in Europe and the United States continues to improve, and international oil prices fluctuate upwards. The international crude oil price linked to the current price adjustment mechanism is already higher than US$40 per barrel, and the protection mechanism has been lifted. The next round of price adjustments is expected. There is a greater possibility of upward adjustment."
"In the medium to long term, the logic of international oil price fundamentals driving prices up will still be in effect, and there will be a high probability of supply shortage in the second half of the year." Haitong Futures said, "If the demand side is not disappointing, it will still return to the future. Among the megatrends."
"The OPEC+ organization still maintains its efforts to curb crude oil supply. US shale oil production has recently declined. The average target of Brent crude oil futures in the fourth quarter of this year is $48 per barrel, and the average target in the fourth quarter of 2021 is $61 per barrel." Citi The bank thinks. (Finish)