Go for work after get off work! Domestic oil prices may rise for the first time this year
Sino-Singapore Jingwei client, June 28 (Xiong Siyi) At 24 o'clock today (28th), a new round of price adjustment windows for domestic refined oil will open. Many institutions expect domestic oil prices to rise for the first time this year.
Photograph of the new latitude and longitude at gas station
On the news, according to Reuters' Chinese website, Iraq and Kazakhstan promised to better comply with the output reduction agreement at the OPEC+ joint ministerial supervision committee meeting on June 18, but OPEC+ did not decide whether to extend the record reduction to 8 month.
It is reported that Iraq and Kazakhstan have submitted plans to fill the previous production cuts in the third quarter. Reuters' Chinese website analysis pointed out that the countries with backward production cuts will compensate for the over-production in May in the next few months, which means that even if OPEC+ decides to reduce production cuts, the actual production cuts will still increase.
In addition, the latest monthly report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on June 16 raised the forecast for global oil demand for 2020 for the second consecutive month. The IEA said that the logistics industry performed better than expected during the implementation of the epidemic blockade measures, and at the same time that many countries relaxed the epidemic control measures are expected to boost the oil demand in the second half of the year. Reached 8.1 million barrels per day, but nearly 500,000 barrels per day higher than the May monthly forecast.
Affected by the above good news, international crude oil futures prices fluctuated higher in the early stage, but fell slightly later. As of this Friday (June 26) close, the price of light crude oil futures delivered by the New York Mercantile Exchange in August fell 0.59% to close at $38.49 per barrel. London Brent crude oil futures delivered in August fell 0.07% to close at $41.02 per barrel.
Image source: CNPC official website
According to the principle of "one adjustment within ten working days", a new round of domestic oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on June 28. Jin Shanchuang analyst Wang Shan pointed out that as of the ninth working day on June 24, the average price of the reference crude oil was 40.67 US dollars per barrel, the rate of change was 4.05%, and the corresponding gasoline and diesel should be raised by 125 yuan/ton.
Wang Shan said that because of the domestic Dragon Boat Holiday, although there is only one working day left until the price adjustment, the crude oil price trend still has variables. Therefore, on June 28, 24, the retail price of refined oil products in my country will rise or run aside. Taken together, domestic retail prices of refined oil products are expected to honor the first increase this year.
Zhongyu Information pointed out on the 24th that the current development of the epidemic has caused the oil price to fluctuate. According to the monitoring model, during the Dragon Boat Festival, even if the international crude oil price is lowered by 0.5 US dollars per barrel per day, the probability of the average price of crude oil breaking through the floor price is still greater. The domestic market may usher in the first round of oil price increase this year.
Longzhong Information believes that because the official estimated average price can exceed US$40/barrel, it is not yet known, and even if it is increased, the final increase is compared with the previous cycle, or is it only adjusted by the corresponding part above US$40/barrel. There is no clear explanation, so the results of this round of product oil price adjustment shall be subject to the official final authority statement.
According to the "Petroleum Price Management Measures" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission on January 13, 2016: "When the crude oil price in the international market is less than US$40 per barrel (inclusive), the refined oil is calculated at the crude oil price of US$40 per barrel and the normal processing profit rate. Price." US$40 per barrel is the so-called "floor price".
The Sino-Singapore Jingwei client found that since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 11 adjustments, including 8 strandings and 3 downward adjustments. The prices of gasoline and diesel have been reduced by 1,850 yuan/ton and 1,780 yuan/ton respectively. It is worth noting that starting from the price adjustment window on March 31 at 24:00, domestic refined oil prices have been stranded for six consecutive times because the crude oil price in the international market is lower than US$40 per barrel. If the oil price increase is implemented this time, the domestic product oil price adjustment in 2020 will show a pattern of "one rise, three falls and eight stranding".
Looking at the future market, Wang Shan believes that the crude oil market lacks good news guidance and the possibility of a short-term memory technical correction. However, Xilian Jia, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, said that for the entire third quarter, the crude oil market is in a recovery phase overall, and the price market has a larger room for recovery than in the first half of the year.
Xi Jiarui explained that after the growth rate of the global new crown epidemic data in the second quarter peaked, it is expected to slow down in the third quarter, and the blockade bans in various countries will be further liberalized. Together with the peak season for gasoline consumption in the United States, it will be conducive to the rebound in crude oil demand. In addition, due to the large number of severe weather in summer, especially the hurricanes in the coastal areas of the United States will also increase, which will inhibit the production of crude oil in the US Gulf of Mexico to a certain extent. (Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)
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