China News Service Client Beijing, June 25 (Reporter Li Jinlei) Under the influence of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, how is the global economy going? Which countries will have a deep recession? What will the Chinese economy do?

　　The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest "World Economic Outlook" on the 24th and made predictions on the above issues.

The global economy is expected to shrink by 4.9% in 2020

　　The IMF continued to lower its global economic outlook. The global growth rate in 2020 is expected to be –4.9%, which is 1.9 percentage points lower than the forecast of the April 2020 World Economic Outlook.

　　The IMF said that the negative impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic on economic activity in the first half of 2020 was more severe than previously expected, so the recovery is expected to be slower than previously predicted. "All regions are expected to experience negative growth in 2020, which is the first time this has happened."

　　"In particular, the reduction in consumption growth forecasts for most economies reflects greater disruption in domestic economic activity than expected." The IMF pointed out that private consumption is expected to weaken due to the large-scale aggregate demand created by maintaining social distances and blockade measures Adverse shocks, and preventive savings increase. In addition, in a highly uncertain environment, companies postpone capital expenditures, so investment is also expected to be in a downturn.

　　The IMF cited data from the International Labour Organization showing that the reduction in working hours in the second quarter of 2020 may be equivalent to more than 300 million full-time jobs.

From the International Monetary Fund.

The US economy is expected to decline 8% this year

　　According to the latest outlook, the growth rate of advanced economies in 2020 is expected to be -8.0%, which is 1.9 percentage points lower than the forecast of the World Economic Outlook in April 2020.

　　The IMF said that the impact of economic activity in the first half of this year seemed to be more severe than expected, and there were signs that people were voluntarily keeping their distance even before the blockade measures were implemented. This also indicates that the recovery in the second half of the year will be slower, because concerns about infection are likely to persist.

　　Among them, the following countries are expected to experience simultaneous deep recessions: the United States (-8.0%), Japan (-5.8%), the United Kingdom (–10.2%), Germany (–7.8%), France (-12.5%), Italy and Spain (–12.8%).

　　The epidemic has disrupted the economy and the disposable income of oil exporting countries has decreased significantly after a sharp drop in fuel prices. Therefore, the IMF expects a severe recession in the following countries: Russia (–6.6%), Saudi Arabia (–6.8%), Nigeria (–5.4%) and South Africa (-8.0%, their economic performance will be severely affected by the health crisis).

　　Compared to what was expected in April, India has experienced a longer blockade and its economic recovery has been slower. It is currently predicted that its economy will contract by 4.5%.

The Chinese economy is expected to grow by 8.2% in 2021

　　The IMF said that global economic activity is expected to bottom out in the second quarter of 2020, and has since rebounded. It is expected that the growth rate in 2021 will rise to 5.4%, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the April forecast.

　　Regarding the situation of the Chinese economy, the IMF pointed out that the Chinese economy is recovering from the sharp contraction in the first quarter. The growth rate in 2020 is expected to be 1.0%, which will benefit from policy stimulus to some extent.

　　The growth rate of emerging markets and developing economies in 2021 is expected to rise to 5.9%, of which, China's economic growth is expected to rebound to 8.2% in 2021.

　　In addition, the economy of the United States, the euro area and Japan is expected to grow by 4.5%, 6.0% and 2.4% respectively in 2021.

Data Map: A real estate building just completed. China News Agency reporter Zhang Binshe

All countries should have adequate vaccines

　　The IMF pointed out that all countries (including countries where viral infections seem to have peaked) should ensure that the healthcare system has sufficient resources. The international community must significantly increase support for national initiatives, including providing financial assistance to countries with limited medical and health capabilities, and with the progress of vaccine trials, direct funds to vaccine production, so that all countries can quickly obtain sufficient quantities and affordable costs Vaccine.

　　The IMF recommends that countries that need to implement the blockade should continue to implement relevant economic policies, including through large-scale, targeted measures to buffer household income losses, and provide support to companies that have been adversely affected by mandatory economic activities.

　　In addition, in countries where the economy is reopening, with the start of the recovery process, targeted support should be phased out, and stimulus should be provided through policies to increase demand, promote and encourage resource redistribution, and transfer from sectors that may continue to shrink in size after the outbreak To other departments.

　　The IMF emphasizes that strong multilateral cooperation remains crucial. IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinat said that the world should strengthen cooperation in various fields to deal with this real global crisis, focus on solving trade and technological tensions, and improve the rules-based multilateral trading system. (Finish)