<Anchor> It is

Kwon Aeri's friendly economic time. Reporter Kwon, the International Monetary Fund's IMF gave its second economic outlook after the Corona 19 crisis?

<Reporter>

Yes, in general, it was difficult, but in our view, there was a prospect that there were not many situations where the common saying that crisis is an opportunity came together like this.

The IMF made an outlook for this year to reflect the economic impact of the corona pandemic in April, and later revised the forecast by looking at the situation.

To sum up, the world is harder than expected in the early days of corona, and quick recovery will be difficult.

I thought the world will grow 4.9% reverse this year. It was cut 1.9 percentage points more than the April forecast.

The IMF has been among the leading economic organizations since the corona pandemic, the first to offer an economic outlook.

So it is a major economic organization that tends to make relatively conservative forecasts, and first of all, it has a dark outlook like "It will be the most difficult situation since the Great Depression 100 years ago." In fact, looking at the prospects and analyzes that followed, it is said that it was relatively early and relatively optimistic.

In fact, the outlook was largely downgraded in this revision.

However, the IMF's analysis is that Korea will be among the least impacted among the major countries.

Of the 39 countries that the IMF classifies as advanced economies, we see it as the least hitting, except China, which is also an emerging country.

For Korea, the outlook for this year was lowered than in April, but it was analyzed that it will stop at 0.9% and grow 2.1% this year.

<Anchor>

So, we lowered the level from -1.2% to -2.1%, but the extent of the increase is less than that of other countries. But in other words, the recovery of other countries will be slower.

<Reporter>

Yes, developed countries expected to grow 8% on average this year and 3% in emerging countries.

If developed countries are economically mature, emerging countries are much like taller youth, so it is common for emerging countries to generally have higher growth rates than developed countries.

So, by the figures alone, you can think that emerging countries now look better than developed countries. In fact, when I looked at two years until next year, I thought that the level of damage experienced by emerging countries other than China would be greater than that of advanced economies.

The greater the bias of wealth in the world, the greater the variation among countries.

Among these, I expect Korea to recover to 2019 levels in two years by the end of next year.

Of course, it is worth thinking that it is not a story that we will not suffer in the future.

When we say that the income of the people in the neighborhood is decreasing, just because our house is shrinking a little less doesn't mean we don't have to wear a waistband. If we thought we'd come in more than 1 million won this year last year, but only 979,000 won You have to endure difficulties everywhere. Indeed, it is a national economy, and the size of our reverse growth is also considerable.

Even with this prospect, it is the biggest economic contraction since the financial crisis 20 years ago, and many people still suffer.

However, even during the 2009 financial crisis, Korea escaped the crisis relatively quickly at that time. At the time, for the first time in history, it made a leap forward, surpassing the share of global trade by 3%.

Crisis became an opportunity. This time, South Korea has made an official prediction that economic organizations like the IMF will become such a country.

As the

reporter of <Anchor> Kwon said, the crisis may be an opportunity, but if the global recovery is a little slower, will there be a side that will reduce our growth as well?

<Reporter>

Yes, I predicted that the world's trade volume would decrease by 11.9% this year, but the increase in next year is only 8%.

Korea's growth, where trade is important, has to keep pace with it, so it is difficult for us to avoid some damage.

However, the IMF's outlook is based on the assumption that Corona 19 will not spread again early next year and that the world's financial conditions will remain the same now, and in fact the uncertainty is greater than ever before, even when this year is already half past This is the story of the IMF.

If Corona spreads again next year, the global economy is expected to grow only 0.5% next year.

However, the outlook for next year is slightly different from April.

In April, in a similar corona re-proliferation scenario, I thought the world would grow by an additional 4.9% next year. With this revision, the outlook for this year is darker than in April, but the world is expected to drive positive growth next year even if Corona spreads again next year.

Conversely, in other scenarios, assuming that the economy is recovering faster than expected, this year looks much more negative than April. In other words, the V-shaped recovery is difficult this year, but it is expected to happen next year.

<Anchor>

Next year seems like a far-off story, but anyway, our country will suffer less than other countries, so we have to try a little harder inside.