It's the fall. The French economy is expected to experience one of the worst recessions in the world in 2020, according to new forecasts from the International Monetary Fund, which expects a scenario darker than that of the government. French GDP should fall in 2020 by 12.5%, instead of 7.2%, estimated Wednesday the IMF, which updated its global forecasts.
France, which has recorded nearly 30,000 deaths linked to Covid-19 and where confinement was particularly strict until May 11, should thus experience one of the worst recessions on the planet this year due to the coronavirus pandemic , alongside Italy (-12.8%) and Spain (-12.8%).
IMF more pessimistic than government
In France as elsewhere, "the recovery should be more gradual than expected," said the IMF, while highlighting the uncertainty surrounding its new forecasts. With this figure of -12.5%, the institution is more pessimistic than the government, which expects a decline in GDP of 11%, the strongest recession in France since 1945.
This forecast, which is based on an assumption of reopening of borders in Europe on June 15 and at the end of the summer with the rest of the world, takes into account the only gradual recovery of the economy, had specified Bercy earlier in the month . The High Council of Public Finance had deemed it "prudent".
Today, the situation has already improved significantly in the industry where plant closings are now rare, and in the building industry, where construction has resumed, but it remains more mixed in services, where some sectors have just resumed their activity, such as catering, cinemas or sports halls.
A real rebound expected in 2021
The future of the recovery will depend in particular on the impact and duration of health protocols in businesses, consumption and investment behavior of households and businesses, as well as the international context, according to INSEE, which does has not released an annual forecast of the extent of the recession.
"I do not believe in (...) an extraordinarily rapid recovery after a brutal collapse which would allow us to find at the end of 2020 the same level of growth as at the beginning of this year," said the Minister of 'Economy Bruno Le Maire last week during a hearing at the Franco-German parliamentary assembly. In general, around the world, "consumption should gradually increase next year", as will investment which should however "remain moderate", predicts the IMF in its report.
Under these conditions, after a very strong recession expected in 2020, the institution anticipates for France a rebound in growth of 7.3% in 2021, a figure improving by 2.8 points compared to its previous estimate dated d April and close to that expected by the Banque de France (7%). This would be one of the strongest growth among the developed countries. France is thus ahead of the United States (+ 4.5%), Germany (+ 5.4%) or Italy (+ 6.3%) and Spain (+ 6.3%) ), according to IMF forecasts.
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- Economy
- Bruno Le Maire
- Economic crisis
- Emmanuel Macron
- IMF
- Coronavirus
- Covid 19