The Sino-Singapore Jingwei client, June 24 (Wu Yihan) is nearing the Dragon Boat Festival, and there has been much discussion about the "Dragon Boat Magic" on the market. Historical data shows that the A-share market is likely to fall after the Dragon Boat Festival.
In fact, the curse about a certain date in the A-share market is not uncommon. From "Investment Strategy Meeting Curse" to "419 Curse", then to "Dragon Boat Curse", and even "Large Event Curse", all affecting investor sentiment.
Is the A-share mantra really reliable? In the opinion of experts, most of the magic spells in the A-share market are lack of basis, which is the saying of people and clouds, and there may be certain market laws behind a few significant phenomena, but there is no absolute impact on the trend and essence of the market. Investors do not Should be superstitious.
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After the Dragon Boat Festival, the probability of A shares falling?
Recently, some media have calculated the trend of the Shanghai Composite Index before and after the Dragon Boat Festival since 2008. During the 12 years, the average decline of the Shanghai Composite Index on the 2nd day was 1.42%, with a rise probability of only 16.67%, less than 20%. One week after the Shanghai Composite Index, the average decline was 2.50%, and the probability of rise was only 16.67%.
The Li Jinfeng team of Guojin Securities had previously counted the rise and fall of the Shanghai Composite Index before and after the 2010-2018 Dragon Boat Festival, and found that during the 9-year period, the Shanghai Composite Index had an index drop probability of 100 during the week after the Dragon Boat Festival. %, during the two weeks after the Dragon Boat Festival, the cumulative return rate of the Shanghai Composite Index is about 77.8%.
The team therefore pointed out that after the Dragon Boat Festival, the A-share market tends to have the "six peculiar spells" feature. The reason why such a feature appears is that the Li Lifeng team believes that it is related to two factors: one is that it has a certain relationship with the credit issuance volume at the crossroads (wait and see period) in May and June of the past years; second, it is often related to the scale of potential A-share lifting There is a certain relationship between a small peak in the past years, and the A-share index is under pressure accordingly.
It is worth mentioning that the “five poor, six extraordinary and seven outstanding” statements that have always existed in the A-share market mean that the stock market tends to fall each year in May and June, and rises in July. However, from June to the present, the overall rise of the Shanghai Composite Index has reached 4.41%, and the "Six Skills Curse" has not appeared.
After the Dragon Boat Festival, there will be two trading days for the A-shares in June. These two trading days will be affected by the superposition of the so-called "Dragon Boat Charm" and "Six Jue Curse". So the question is coming, A-share magic, is it reliable?
A shares of these spells are invalid this year
In fact, in addition to the so-called "Dragon Boat Curse" and "Six Jue Curse", there are many A-share curses on specific dates. Such as "China Merchants Securities Strategy Meeting Curse" (A shares fall every year when China Merchants Securities holds a strategy meeting), "419 Curse" (A shares tend to fall every April 19), "Major Games Curse" (World Cup, Olympic Games After a large-scale event is held, the A-share will fall with probability.)
However, the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client found that neither the so-called "419 curse" and the "securities strategy meeting curse" of China Merchants have been revealed this year. April 19, 2020 is Sunday, the stock market has not opened, but the Shanghai Composite Index on April 17 and April 20 rose 0.66% and 0.59% respectively, the 419 mantra is invalid; in addition, this year's China Merchants Securities Strategy Conference Held on May 28, the Shanghai Composite Index also rose 0.33%. It can be seen that the so-called magic spell is not so effective.
Guo Yiming, the investment advisory director of Jufeng Investment Consulting, pointed out to the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that most of the magic spells do not have market rules, but are just a kind of saying. However, there are indeed some reasons behind some of the curse phenomenon. For example, the annual Dragon Boat Festival is mostly in June. Due to the bank’s mid-year settlement and other reasons, the market has always had tight funds in late June. At this time, some funds are often prepared to escape defense. The overall market trend is relatively weak; Event curse, because the stock market hype is expected, before major events, related subject stocks often encounter market hype, and when the event landed, instead there is not much hype.
"Therefore, the curse is more of a reaction to investor sentiment, with no absolute impact on market trends and essence. Investors should not believe the curse too much, but should follow market trends closely and start from the fundamentals , Objectively analyze the rise and fall of the market." Guo Yiming said.
Dong Dengxin, director of the Institute of Financial Securities at Wuhan University of Science and Technology, also pointed out to Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client that the magic on the A-share market is not based, and its historical trends are mostly accidental. Even if the capital situation or market hype will affect the trend of A shares to a certain extent, this is not a determinant. The true trend of the market still depends on macro fundamentals, such as the upcoming semi-annual report performance disclosure period of listed companies, which will have a greater impact on the market.
What market information should I follow after the Dragon Boat Festival?
Although there is no need to worry about the "Dragon Boat Curse", what factors will affect the A-share market after the Dragon Boat Festival are undoubtedly investors' concerns.
In Dong Dengxin's view, what investors need to pay most attention to after the Dragon Boat Festival is the disclosure period of semi-annual reports of listed companies starting in July. "The biggest factor affecting the market trend this year is the epidemic. Although the epidemic in China as a whole has been controlled by April this year, the impact of the epidemic on listed companies has a lagging process, and this impact will undoubtedly be reflected in the listed companies this year. On the semi-annual report. Therefore, in the next two months, the stock market will continue to fluctuate with the disclosure of the semi-annual report of the listed company."
In addition to the semi-annual report of listed companies, Guo Yiming believes that with the continuous upward trend of the stock market in recent times, the sustainability of future index rises remains to be seen, and investors also need to pay attention to the situation of individual stock differentiation. Since June 1, the GEM has risen by about 13%, but among the 3800 stocks in the two cities, only more than 600 have outperformed the GEM, including new stocks. Of these, only more than 200 belong to the GEM. In other words, five-sixth stocks of the two cities underperformed the GEM index.
"In addition, it should be noted that there has been a lack of hot spots in the market recently. Prior to the continuous upward movement of the target stocks of medicine, food and beverage, etc., there have been loosening of chips. After the continuous rise of brokerages, the market transactions have not been effectively released, but there have been certain The degree of contraction. Therefore, although the short-term index support remains, it is necessary to pay attention to the diminishing market profitability and the expected decline in sentiment. Once the incremental funds are not good, the market may once again callback." Guo Yiming said. (Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)
(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)
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