• Crisis: the ghost of the 'fallen angels' and junk bonds returns

The rating agency Moody's alerts a good part of the business fabric to the worsening of the economy in our country and its weak liquidity situation. Its warning is clear: more than half of Spanish companies are at risk of suffering a drop in credit ratings in the next 18 months, as the firm warns in a report published on Monday.

" More than 50% of Spanish non-financial companies rated by Moody's are at risk of having their ratings downgraded in the next 18 months, either because their rating is under review for a possible downgrade or because their rating has a perspective negative, "explains Víctor García Capdevila, an analyst at the agency.

The liquidity problems that many of them accumulate and forced debt swaps will increase, according to the agency, the insolvency rate. In fact, the rating firm has already identified a group of companies with very fragile credit profiles, weak liquidity, high leverage, and downside risks to their operating returns.

In this sense, in the period between March and May, the agency has adopted 29 negative actions on the ratings of Spanish non-financial companies, mainly as a consequence of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and to a lesser extent the effect of the collapse of the oil prices and adverse movements in the emerging currency exchange rate.

"The credit quality of Spanish companies will continue to weaken even after the government makes mobility, travel and social distancing more flexible," he adds, and that will make the gap between the credit quality of investment-grade companies and those that have speculative degree to increase.

The report is a serious warning of the impact that the current economic crisis caused by the coronavirus could have on Spanish companies once the reopening is completed after the almost total stoppage they have suffered in the last three months.

Some, however, will be more affected than others. Specifically, according to Moody's, firms in the retail sector, gaming and business and consumer services will be the most affected.

A third of the negative rating actions carried out during the pandemic have affected companies in these sectors and Moody's points out that the trend will continue, since 30% of the negative perspectives or ratings under review correspond to companies from these sectors.

"We have had no defaults so far this year among qualified Spanish companies, but this is likely to change in the next six to 12 months," he says.

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