China-Singapore Jingwei client, June 22, 22nd, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Interbank Center to publish the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) shows that the one-year LPR is 3.85%; the five-year LPR is 4.65% , And the quotation remained unchanged from May.

　　Screenshot of the central bank's website

　　In June, 740 billion medium-term loan facilities (MLFs) expired, which were 500 billion due on June 8 and 240 billion due on June 19. When the huge amount of MLF expired on June 8, the central bank did not renew the MLF, but launched a reverse repurchase, but the central bank additionally disclosed that it will renew the MLF due this month at one time, specific operations The amount will be determined according to market demand and other circumstances.

　　On June 15, the central bank announced that in order to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, the People's Bank of China carried out 200 billion yuan MLF operations, which fully met the needs of financial institutions, and the winning bid rate was 2.95%, which was the same as last time. In addition, on June 18, the central bank restarted the 14-day reverse repurchase, and the winning interest rate was lowered by 20 basis points to 2.35%.

　　Chen Ji, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, analyzed that the reverse repurchase rate adjustment once again shows the central bank's attitude to "fix" the market interest rate term structure steadily. The latest MLF operating rate has not been adjusted, but the trend of continuing to guide LPR down to the benefit of physical enterprises remains unchanged.

　　Since the LPR quotation is linked to the MLF interest rate, the market also includes a pre-judgment of the LPR quotation while paying attention to the central bank's MLF operating rate. Recently, both open market operations (OMO) and MLF operating rates are "inactive", so the market has generally believed that the probability of the new LPR released this month will also remain unchanged.

　　"According to the general law since the new LPR reform in August 2019, the MLF interest rate remained unchanged in June, which means that the LPR quotation on June 20 will also have a high probability of maintaining the level of the previous month." Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said Since the beginning of the year, the spread of commercial banks has continued to narrow, coupled with the recent rise in market interest rates, in fact, it is also raising the bank’s marginal cost of funds. As a result, this month's bank initiative to compress LPR quotes has little incentive.

　　Tao Jin, a senior researcher at Suning Financial Research Institute, believes that the current monetary policy shows the importance of cherishing the policy space. Since the MLF operating rate before LPR quotation has an increasingly strong signal effect, there is a high probability that the LPR quotation will not be lowered this month.

　　The executive meeting of the State Council held on June 17 made it clear that through further guidance of loan interest rates and bond interest rates, the issuance of preferential interest rates loans, the implementation of deferred principal and interest payments for small and medium-sized enterprise loans, support for the issuance of unsecured credit loans for small and micro enterprises, and reduction of bank charges A series of policies, etc., promote the financial system to make reasonable profits of 1.5 trillion yuan to various enterprises throughout the year. Comprehensive use of tools such as RRR cuts and re-loans to maintain reasonable and sufficient market liquidity, increase efforts to solve financing difficulties, and ease the pressure on corporate funds. The scale of new renminbi loans and social financing throughout the year exceeded the previous year.

　　According to the analysis of Guohai's solid income research report, considering the impact of the good news, the central bank will most likely announce the RRR cut by the end of June. Therefore, the recent central bank's open market return of liquidity belongs to the "want to rise first" before the RRR cut, and it is also in line with the previous judgment of "reduce, refinance and replace MLF to release liquidity". (Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)