Central pension adjustment exceeds 700 billion: Guangdong’s four largest provinces benefit over 10 billion
Author: Lin Xiaozhao
After the implementation of the central pension adjustment system, the net payment of pensions in various provinces is a profound reflection of regional economic development, the degree of population aging, population mobility and growth.
Recently, the Ministry of Finance released the annual budget of the Central Transfer Fund for 2020. The data shows that this year the Central Transfer Fund is expected to reach 739.823 billion yuan, an increase of 109.523 billion yuan over the previous year, an increase of 17.4%.
One of the major backgrounds here is that, because the imbalance of pension insurance funds between provinces is difficult to be solved by provincial-level co-ordination, it is necessary to further improve the level of co-ordination. From July 2018, the central adjustment system for pension insurance funds began to be implemented. Among them, the amount of funds turned over in some provinces is greater than the disbursed amount, becoming a net contributing province;
According to this year's budget, 7 provinces are net contributing provinces, 21 provinces and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps are net beneficiary provinces, and 3 provinces are flat.
Revenue and Expenditure of Central Transfer Fund in 2020 (Unit: 100 million yuan) Data source: Ministry of Finance
Guangdong has the most "contributions"
The seven net contributing provinces are Guangdong, Beijing, Fujian, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Shandong, with a total net contribution of 176.7 billion yuan. These provinces are all located on the eastern coast, including the four major economic provinces of Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang, the two strong first-tier cities of Beijing and Shanghai, and the southeast coastal province of Fujian with a developed private economy.
Among them, Guangdong, the largest economic province, has a net contribution of 64.571 billion yuan, accounting for 36.5% of the total net contribution, making it the province with the largest contribution from the central government.
Guangdong has always been the province with the largest pension balance. In April last year, the "Chinese Pension Actuarial Report 2019-2050" released by the World Social Security Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences stated that after the introduction of the central pension adjustment system, the Guangdong pension balance in the current period in 2019 was 129.60 billion yuan, ranking first. It is far superior to Sichuan, which ranked second at 47.83 billion yuan, and Beijing, which ranked third at 47.72 billion yuan, with obvious advantages.
Professor Zhang Kaiyun, executive director of the Guangdong Social Security and Social Policy Research Center, analyzed the First Financial Reporter that the central adjustment fund is more than enough to make up for the shortage. From the perspective of Guangdong's population structure, the net contribution of Guangdong's pension will still be relatively large for a longer period in the future.
Zhang Kaiyun analyzed that as a major economic province in Guangdong, with the improvement of labor regulations, its pension payment is more standardized, the participation rate is relatively high, and the amount of missing contributions is relatively small. At the same time, Guangdong has a high overall employment capacity, a large migrant population, a large proportion of young people, a low level of aging, and a low dependency ratio for the elderly. There are many people who pay the fee, but few people who receive the money, the more the balance.
Statistics show that in 2014, Guangdong's permanent population was 107.24 million. In the past five years, Guangdong's population increased by 7.97 million, which is approximately equal to the population of a Hefei city. It can be said that the growth is rapid. Among them, in addition to the high natural population growth rate, the influx of foreign populations, especially young people, is an important factor. For example, last year, the number of new permanent residents from outside the province reached 862,200.
The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Higher Education Big Data Research Center, Guangzhou Daily Data and Digital Research Institute (GDI Think Tank) released the "Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and the Yangtze River Delta Region Higher Education and Economic Development Report" released on June 18. The inflow rate of undergraduate graduates has continued to rise in recent years. In 2018, the proportion of out-of-provincial students employed in Guangdong accounted for 50.6%. The industries with a large employment volume are the electrical and electronic equipment manufacturing industry and the information industry.
First Financial Reporter also sorted out the proportion of the population over 65 years old in 19 provinces (some provinces have not released it), and Guangdong ranks second from the bottom. In addition, the dependency ratio of the elderly population in Guangdong in 2019 was 12.04%, compared with 17.8% in the same period in the country.
In addition to this, there is a factor. Compared to places such as Northeast and Jiangsu, provinces such as Guangdong and Fujian used to have a relatively low state-owned economy, fewer people in the system, and a lower urbanization rate. Ding Changfa, an associate professor in the Department of Economics of Xiamen University, analyzed the First Financial Reporter. For example, there are few original state-owned enterprises in Fujian, and the proportion of rural residents is very high. Although the urbanization rate is already relatively high according to the resident population, it is still quite large. A proportion of people do not have employee pensions.
Four provinces benefited more than 10 billion yuan
In addition to the seven net contributing provinces, the three provinces of Guizhou, Yunnan, and Tibet are flat. They are also provinces with a high birth rate, low aging, and a low proportion of pensioners.
In addition, 21 provinces and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps are net beneficiary provinces. Among them, four provinces have a net benefit of more than 10 billion yuan, namely Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Hubei and Jilin.
The net beneficiary provinces are generally in a state of high aging, the outflow of young people, and the pension income is not in balance, especially in the northeast region. The data shows that Liaoning has the largest net benefit, reaching 55.558 billion yuan. In addition, Heilongjiang has a net benefit of 48.556 billion yuan, and Jilin has a net benefit of 14.519 billion yuan.
Yi Baozhong, a professor at the Northeast Asia Research Institute of Jilin University, analyzed that the population outflow in Northeast China in recent years was mainly young and middle-aged people, especially many people worked in developed areas along the southeast coast after graduating from university. .
The data shows that under the circumstances of low birth rate and natural growth rate, the population of the three northeastern provinces all experienced a net outflow. In 2019, the net outflow of Heilongjiang was 179,900, the net outflow of Jilin was 110,300, and the net outflow of Liaoning was 41,100.
On the other hand, the urbanization of Northeast China was earlier, and Yibao Zhong said that in the past, the industrial sector in Northeast China was mainly dominated by state-owned enterprises, and the base for receiving pensions was particularly large, and it was also large nationwide. In the course of marketization in recent years, state-owned enterprises in the Northeast have been hit hard. Some reforms and some bankruptcies have directly led to an increasing burden on pensions.
In addition, the “migratory bird-style” pensions in the northeast region have also increased local economic pressure. Many people choose to go to the south for pensions, or go to their children, and receive pensions but do not consume in the northeast. This also has a greater impact on the tertiary industry in the northeast. .
The central province of Hubei's net benefit this year has increased by 55% compared to last year. Peng Zhimin, a researcher at the Hubei Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed the first financial reporter. This year's new coronary pneumonia epidemic has a huge impact on Hubei's economy. Many enterprises have encountered difficulties in their operations. The central government has also issued a package of programs to help Hubei's development. There is also a need to reduce taxes on enterprises, so increase the scale of pension transfer payments.
He analyzed that the situation in Hubei is different from that in Northeast China. The impact of this year's epidemic is a special case. It is expected that with the gradual recovery of Hubei's economy, the scale of pension transfer funds will gradually decrease after next year.
A city with young people has a future
On the whole, the pension income and expenditure of a region is not only closely related to the degree of population aging, but also related to the movement of population in the region. In some regions, such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang, although the degree of aging is relatively high, due to the developed economy, there is a large number of foreign population inflows, so the pension income and expenditure are also relatively good.
From this perspective, the more young people there are in a region, the stronger the economic vitality. According to research conducted by the China-Thailand Securities Research Institute, in 2019, the direction of my country's population movement has further strengthened the megatrends in 2018, and continues to exhibit the characteristics of "moving eastward" and "sending south."
In 2019, the net inflow of population in the eastern provinces exceeded 1.5 million, and if the north and south are divided according to the Qinling-Huaihe River, the net inflow of the southern provinces reached 1.67 million. Moreover, the scale of population migration in eastern and southern provinces has further increased compared to 2018.
In order to attract talents, major central cities including Nanjing, Hangzhou, Xi'an, etc., are working hard to upgrade talent policies. Not only has the settlement policy been relaxed, but also provides corresponding subsidies for talent subsidies, rental subsidies, and housing subsidies. treatment.
For example, in April of this year, Hangzhou released the “Three-year Action Plan (2020-2022) of Hangzhou towards the future·Building the first city of entrepreneurial innovation for college students”. Through the cultivation of double-creative talent projects, Hangzhou plans to introduce more than 1 million college students to Hangzhou for entrepreneurship and innovation by 2022.
Ding Changfa said that if the competition between cities and regions does not progress, it will retreat. Population and talents are important manifestations of urban competitiveness. Young talents are the main body of consumption, innovation, entrepreneurship and employment, and cities with young people have a future. But in order to retain young people, in addition to opening the threshold for settlement, they must also be livable and industry-friendly, and have corresponding industries and employment opportunities.